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The weekly jobless number of 384,000 confirms the real time "Trend" that is developing right now and that's quite simply that unemployment in the US is no longer going down, its going up. This is not good for growth, and adds to my conviction in the "stag" part of the stagflation thesis.

The 4 week moving average of claims now stands at 378,000, and this is the highest reading of the year. Within the framework of my US Consumer is "RIPTE" model (Regulation, Inflation, Protectionism, Taxes, and Employment), this trend in US employment is going to amplify the political pressures implied within the rest of the oncoming RIPTE consumer spending winds.

KM

(picture: http://www.chaosbydesign.com/desktops/art/jobless.jpg)