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Takeaway: MBS was lucky, which resulted in share gains but VIP volumes remain the key risk.

CALL TO ACTION

LVS and Genting struck different chords when describing the Singapore market performance and outlook.  Luck was definitely on the side of LVS’s MBS in Q4, but overall, Genting’s assessment is probably more accurate.

While Singapore generated GGR growth in 4Q 2014, it was mainly due to easy YoY comps and a high hold percentage (good luck for the house).  On a hold-adjusted basis, Singapore 4Q GGR declined for a 5th straight quarter.

Mass volume growth is stable at best.  But most disconcerting is the accelerating decline in VIP volumes, indicative of systemic risks in the market, particularly those stemming from the high-end Mainland Chinese. 

Please see our detailed note: http://docs.hedgeye.com/HE_SING_4Q_2014.pdf