We will be hosting a call today outlining our Best Idea Short thesis on Pandora Media (P). P’s user retention issues and waning TAM create a precarious setup into 2015. Further, Webcaster IV can derail P's entire business model in 2016.
Join us for our call TODAY at 1:00pm EST.
KEY TOPICS WILL INCLUDE
- Users to Decline in 2015: P’s waning TAM isn’t large enough to compensate for its heightened attrition issues.
- Tug of War: P will need to continue increasing ad load to drive much of its revenue growth, which will exacerbate its attrition issues.
- Lofty Consensus Revenue: P would require a considerable acceleration in ARPU growth to hit 2015 estimates. If P falls short in 2015, 2016 would be unattainable.
- Webcaster IV = Powder Keg: Anything short of the best case scenario won't be good enough. P may have to curb hours/exit certain markets in 2016, curbing its long-term prospects
Conference ID/Password: 13598859
Materials: CLICK HERE (link will go live an hour before the call)
Hesham Shaaban, CFA