Eye on Two Americas...

This morning's nasty US Consumer Confidence reading for the month of June confirms what we have been using as our theme of Wall Street's hopes versus Main Street's reality - Eye On Two Americas .

The June reading of 50 was -14% lower than May's reading of 58, and is the lowest print we have seen since 1992. We called out 1992 in our "RIPTE" macro note yesterday as the last time we saw a US Consumer Recession in the US Consumer Spending #'s, so this confidence reading adds conviction my thesis that we are about to enter a period that we have not seen since 1973-75.

Interestingly, the "expectations" component of the US Consumer confidence report came in at 41. This is the lowest # since they started keeping tabs of these #'s in the 1960's! Planned vacations also hit their lowest number since the data has been available, so this explains partly why the lodging stocks continue to act horrendously.

Our gaming/lodging guru, Todd Jordan, is working on a piece right now that captures the absurdity of Wall Street's expectations for US hotel operators numbers in the back half of 2008 and into 2009.

KM
(picture: http://share.skype.com/sites/devzone/vacancy_1_800.jpg)

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