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FHFA | Completing the Trifecta, NHS | Muddling

Takeaway: FHFA accelerated to +4.4% in Oct from +4.2% in Sep. All three primary price series are telling the same (2nd deriv) stabilization story.

Our Hedgeye Housing Compendium table (below) aspires to present the state of the housing market in a visually-friendly format that takes about 30 seconds to consume. 

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - Compendium 12.23.14

 

 

Today's Focus: November New Home Sales & October FHFA HPI

 

FHFA HPI

 

FHFA HPI accelerated to +4.4% in October from +4.2% in September.  All three primary price series are now telling the same (2nd derivative) stabilization story.

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - FHFA NSA YoY TTM

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - HPI 2nd derivate inflection 

 

November New Home Sales 

  • New Home Sales were down -1.6% on both a MoM & YoY basis. Meanwhile, New Home Sales are up just +0.7% YoY on average YTD vs. the Jan-Nov period last year and at +438K in November they sit just above the TTM average of +434K. New Home Inventory was flat at +214K sequentially, and is up +15.7% YoY. Existing Home Sales continues to dominate with the EHS to NHS ratio still at 11.3x vs the long-term average of 8.6x. Note that in contrast to most demand measures (purchase apps, EHS, etc) the comps for NHS are actually (somewhat) hard over the Oct-Jan period with NHS averaging +449K and 13% YoY Growth. 

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - NHS Total   YoY 3Y

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - NHS Sales   Starts TTM

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - NHS LT w Summary Stats

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - NHS EHS to NHS Sales Ratio

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - NHS Mean Median Home Price

 

FHFA | Completing the Trifecta,  NHS | Muddling - NHS New Homes for Sale Total   YoY  

 

 

About New Home Sales:

Each month the Census Department releases the New Home Sales report, which measures the number of newly constructed homes that have been sold in the month. The difference between the New Home Sales report and the Starts and Permits report is that New Home Sales only includes single family spec homes built and sold by builders, and does not include condos, apartments, or owner-built units. This is why New Home Sales typically run at roughly half the rate of Starts.

 

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Christian B. Drake

 


Call Today @11 | Detecting Deception Through Statement Analysis

Call Details:

Toll Free Number:

Toll Number:

Conference ID/Password: 13597957

Materials: CLICK HERE

 

“Statement Analysis is the most accurate way of determining if a person is lying in a verbal or written statement. A person cannot give a lengthy deceptive statement without revealing that it is a lie. This is because people's words will betray them.”

-Mark McClish, creator of the Statement Analysis method

 

HOW WE ARE USING STATEMENT ANALYSIS

Reading conference call/analyst meeting transcripts is a key part of the analyst’s job.    We all use words to define our reality, and our choice of words can be revealing.  The premise of Statement Analysis is that a person’s choice of specific words can reveal when there might be an attempt at deception.  This Statement Analysis exercise looks exclusively at a company’s written and verbal statements.  Using these hidden clues, we can dig deeper into a company’s public pronouncements for signals of potential concerns in a company’s reporting.

 

MARK MCCLISH BIO

In 1990, Mark was promoted to the position of Inspector/Instructor at the U.S. Marshals Service Training Academy located at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Glynco, GA. He taught at the Training Academy for nine years serving as the lead instructor on interviewing techniques. He used this time to study deceptive statements and conduct research on deception. Based on his findings, he created the Statement Analysis techniques for detecting deception in a verbal and written statement. While assigned to the Training Academy Mark was also the lead defensive tactics instructor for the Marshals Service.

 

Mark retired from the Marshals Service in 2009 and started Advanced Interviewing Concepts. His company provides interviewing skills training and assists investigators in analyzing statements.

 

WHAT WE INTEND TO ACCOMPLISH ON THE CALL

On the call we will focus on:

  • Why Statement Analysis is important.
  • Mark’s process and findings.
  • Provide analysis on select companies. 
  • Identify areas within specific corporate releases that bear closer scrutiny, and
  • Compare company comments with their financial statements.

 

The call will last about an hour including time for Q&A.


Call Today @11 | Detecting Deception Through Statement Analysis

Call Details:

Toll Free Number:

Toll Number:

Conference ID/Password: 13597957

Materials: CLICK HERE

 

“Statement Analysis is the most accurate way of determining if a person is lying in a verbal or written statement. A person cannot give a lengthy deceptive statement without revealing that it is a lie. This is because people's words will betray them.”

-Mark McClish, creator of the Statement Analysis method

 

HOW WE ARE USING STATEMENT ANALYSIS

Reading conference call/analyst meeting transcripts is a key part of the analyst’s job.    We all use words to define our reality, and our choice of words can be revealing.  The premise of Statement Analysis is that a person’s choice of specific words can reveal when there might be an attempt at deception.  This Statement Analysis exercise looks exclusively at a company’s written and verbal statements.  Using these hidden clues, we can dig deeper into a company’s public pronouncements for signals of potential concerns in a company’s reporting.

 

MARK MCCLISH BIO

In 1990, Mark was promoted to the position of Inspector/Instructor at the U.S. Marshals Service Training Academy located at the Federal Law Enforcement Training Center in Glynco, GA. He taught at the Training Academy for nine years serving as the lead instructor on interviewing techniques. He used this time to study deceptive statements and conduct research on deception. Based on his findings, he created the Statement Analysis techniques for detecting deception in a verbal and written statement. While assigned to the Training Academy Mark was also the lead defensive tactics instructor for the Marshals Service.

 

Mark retired from the Marshals Service in 2009 and started Advanced Interviewing Concepts. His company provides interviewing skills training and assists investigators in analyzing statements.

 

WHAT WE INTEND TO ACCOMPLISH ON THE CALL

On the call we will focus on:

  • Why Statement Analysis is important.
  • Mark’s process and findings.
  • Provide analysis on select companies. 
  • Identify areas within specific corporate releases that bear closer scrutiny, and
  • Compare company comments with their financial statements.

 

The call will last about an hour including time for Q&A.


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Keith's Macro Notebook 12/23: Yield Curve | Commodities | Volume

 

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares the top three things in his macro notebook this morning.


Commodities: Crash! Boom! Bang!

Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye morning research. For more information on how you can become a subscriber click here.

 

*  *  *  *  *  *  *

Collapse, crash – use whatever word you want to describe a CRB Index (19 commodities) that dropped another -1.4% to fresh year-to-date lows yesterday.

 

For those of you keeping score, it’s down -25% since June.

 

While it’s fascinating to hear a wide range of narratives on why, the reality is that being positioned for #deflation risk (net short Commodities, Junk Bonds, etc.) is paying off big time now. 

Commodities: Crash! Boom! Bang! - 55


Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015)

Takeaway: In this note, we take a closer look at the industry-wide trends implied by consensus same-store sales estimates for 2015.

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 88

 

Key Points

  • Casual Dining, Family Dining, Fine Dining, and Sandwich two-year comps are expected to accelerate throughout 2015.
  • Coffee, Fast Casual, and Pizza two-year comps are expected to decelerate throughout 2015.
  • Comp estimates, in aggregate, appear aggressive perhaps driven by recent encouraging reports from Black Box and Knapp as well as declining gasoline prices.
  • For this reason, we believe we are well-positioned to identity several opportunistic shorts next year.

 

Casual Dining Consensus SSS Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Casual Dining two-year accelerating 100 bps to 1.7%
  • BJRI two-year accelerating 200  bps to 1.1%
  • BLMN two-year accelerating 30 bps to 1.8%
  • BBRG two-year accelerating 240 bps to -2.8%
  • BWLD two-year decelerating 60 bps to 4.5%
  • CAKE two-year accelerating 35 bps to 1.7%
  • CHUY two-year decelerating 50 bps to 2.6%
  • DIN (Applebee’s) two-year accelerating 60 bps to 1.3%
  • DIN (IHOP) two-year decelerating 95 bps to 2.1%
  • DRI two-year accelerating 230 bps to 1.6%
  • EAT two-year accelerating 160 bps to 2.0%
  • IRG accelerating 225 bps to -0.1%
  • KONA two-year decelerating 5 bps to 2.6%
  • RRGB two-year decelerating 65 bps to 2.7%
  • RT two-year accelerating 660 bps to 1.5%
  • TXRH two-year accelerating 55 bps to 4.9%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 11

 

 

Coffee Consensus SSS Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Coffee two-year decelerating 156 bps to 3.4%
  • DNKN two-year decelerating 130 bps to 1.9%
  • KKD two-year decelerating 60 bps to 2.9%
  • SBUX two-year decelerating 95 bps to 5.1%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 22

 

 

Family Dining Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Family Dining two-year accelerating 78 bps to 2.1%
  • BOBE two-year accelerating 225 bps to 1.3%
  • CBRL two-year decelerating 20 bps to 2.9%
  • DENN two-year accelerating 30 bps to 2.1%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 33

 

 

Fast Casual Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Fast Casual two-year decelerating 52 bps to 4.3%
  • CMG two-year decelerating 230 bps to 10.7%
  • FRGI (Pollo Tropical) two-year decelerating 160 bps to 4.6%
  • FRGI (Taco Cabana) two-year accelerating 55 bps to 3.2%
  • NDLS two-year accelerating 20 bps to 2.1%
  • PBPB two-year accelerating 30 bps to 1.8%
  • PNRA two-year accelerating 130 bps to 2.7%
  • ZOES two-year decelerating 210 bps to 4.7%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 44

 

 

Fine Dining Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Fine Dining two-year accelerating 52 bps to 1.9%
  • DFRG two-year accelerating 75 bps to 2.5%
  • RUTH two-year decelerating 105 bps to 3.5%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 55

 

 

Pizza Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Pizza two-year decelerating 173 bps to 3.9%
  • DPZ two-year decelerating 160 bps to 5.0%
  • PZZA two-year decelerating 185 bps to 2.8%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 66

 

 

Sandwich Consensus Expectations (3Q14-4Q15)

  • Sandwich two-year accelerating 44 bps to 2.6%
  • BKW two-year accelerating 55 bps to 2.2%
  • JACK (JIB) two-year accelerating 120 bps to 2.1%
  • JACK (Qdoba) two-year accelerating 155 bps to 6.4%
  • MCD two-year accelerating 145 bps to 0.3%
  • PLKI two-year decelerating 230 bps to 3.9%
  • SONC two-year decelerating 220 bps to 3.1%
  • WEN two-year decelerating 15 bps to 1.8%
  • YUM two-year accelerating 340 bps to 1.4%

 

Industry-Wide Comp Outlook (2015) - 77

 

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


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