The Dead Bear Bounce

Editor's note: This is a brief excerpt from Hedgeye morning research. Click here to learn more about how you can become a subscriber to the fastest-growing independent research firm in America.


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Things that crash…bounce.


Over in the Gong Show that has become Putin's Russia, the RTSI is up +4.2% this morning after being up big on Friday. That said, Russia is still down a monster -42% year-to-date (which means only +72%, from here, to get whoever owned it up there back to breakeven!).


There is massive resistance for the Russian Trading System in the 885-912 range (no support to 623).


No, it's not looking good for Mother Russia.


The Dead Bear Bounce - p9

McCullough: Why I’m Using the Word “Recession” for the First Time This Year


In this excerpt from the Q&A portion of today's Morning Macro Call for institutional subscribers, CEO Keith McCullough says that Fed Chair Janet Yellen could make a move that puts the U.S. in recession.

LEISURE LETTER (12/22/2014)

Tickers: CZR, LVS, MAR, HOT, RCL  

Today's Headline Story

Macau's Gaming Scrutiny To Intensify – On Saturday, Macau’s Chief Executive, Fernando Chui Sai On, said his government would in the spring “undertake a review” of the city’s casino industry. It followed remarks by China’s President Xi Jinping calling for Macau to show “greater courage and wisdom” to “strengthen and improve regulation and supervision over the gaming industry”.  And the country’s president during his visit indicated official concern is not only about cross border money transfer out of China, but also how the prosperity brought to Macau – as the middleman for such high volumes of cash – has created imbalances in local society.

Article HERE

Takeaway: Commentary consistent with a prolonged downturn for Macau GGR.


LVS & 1928.HK – announced Sands China Ltd., received the Macao government approvals needed to complete the construction of its US$2.7 billion Paris-themed integrated resort. The completion of The Parisian Macao will bring Las Vegas Sands' total investment in Macao to more than $10 billion. The Parisian Macao will feature more than 3,000 hotel rooms and suites, more than 490,000 square feet of retail space, diverse food and beverage offerings, new meeting and convention facilities and a 50% scale replica of the Eiffel Tower

Takeaway:  The press release didn't mention a opening date for Parisian but we believe the casino will not open until 2016.


CZR – Caesars Entertainment Operating Company, Inc. ("CEOC"), a subsidiary of Caesars Entertainment Corporation ("Caesars Entertainment") (Nasdaq: CZR), and Caesars Entertainment have reached an agreement with CEOC's first lien noteholder steering committee regarding terms of a financial restructuring plan including a CEOC reorganization under Chapter 11. To implement the balance sheet deleveraging, CEOC expects to voluntarily commence a reorganization under Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code in mid-January 2015. Under the plan, Caesars Entertainment will contribute up to $1.45 billion in cash to CEOC in support of the restructuring: $700 million to offer to purchase up to 100% of the equity in OpCo from creditors, $269 million to offer to purchase up to 15% of the equity in PropCo, $406 million to fund liquidity and cash recoveries to creditors and a guarantee of up to an additional $75 million of cash, which can be drawn by CEOC under certain circumstances. In addition, Caesars Entertainment has agreed to guarantee OpCo's monetary obligations under the lease to help facilitate the creation of the valuable REIT structure.


CZR also announced that they have entered into a definitive agreement to merge with Caesars Acquisition Company (CACQ) in an all-stock transaction. The successful completion of the merger will position the merged company to support the restructuring of CEOC without the need for any significant outside financing.  The details are HERE.

Takeaway: CZR's restructuring efforts continue. At least now they have some cash to support that process.  

CWN.AU – A challenger for the presidency of Sri Lanka has promised in his manifesto to cancel a casino license – reportedly given to Australia’s Crown Resorts Ltd – if he wins the January 8 vote. Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is seeking a third term as Sri Lanka’s head of state. On October 24, Mr Rajapaksa proposed that in the country’s 2015 budget there should be a US$100 entrance fee for customers using the country’s casinos and that the gaming levy should be 10 percent of turnover.  Currently there is a tax of 5% on local casinos’ gross earnings. In 2013 the government charged a levy of LKR100 million (US$764,234) on casino operators. The Sri Lankan media has previously reported that in 2013 Crown Resorts was awarded a local license to build a US$400 million mixed-use resort including a casino.

Article HERE


0577.HK– Louis XIII Holdings Ltd raised just under HK$1.64 billion (US$211.5 million) via a placement of shares and convertible bonds, the Company said said in a filing on Friday. The company is developing a boutique casino on the border of Cotai and Coloane in Macau. Capital costs of the project were last year estimated at US$800 million. On November 20, Louis XIII Holdings said it was looking to raise some new money – some of which would be used for “design upgrades related to the fit out of the interiors of the hotel development”. Casino Louis XIII will operate 66 gaming tables (50 premium mass and 16 VIP) according to previous regulatory filings.

Article HERE


0577.HK – The crackdown on cross border currency transfers couldn’t be worse for Macau’s Louis XIII hotel-casino development. Hong Kong investment banking and real estate bigwig Stephen Hung has laid out a plan for a facility on Cotai that will cater to China’s 1%, with the property’s ritziest room costing HK $1 million (US $130,000) per night, while its jewelry shops won’t sell a single bauble worth less than $1 million. In September, Hung made headlines by placing a $20 million order for a fleet of 30 Rolls Royce Phantoms to ferry his VIPs, the single largest order the luxury car manufacturer has ever received.

Article HERE

Takeaway: Louis XIII facing the headwinds of the enforcement and crackdown activities.  It could be difficult for a Louis XIII gambler to be seen driving around Macau in a red Rolls Royce in the current environment.


880.HK – SJM was invited by a venture of South Korea’s Paradise Co. and Japan’s Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. (6460) to jointly manage the resort at the Incheon International Airport. It would be SJM’s first foray into the country. The foreigners-only integrated casino project, called Paradise City, is due to open in the first half of 2017 at the airport’s International Business Center and cost about 1.3 trillion won ($1.2 billion) to build, according to a Nov. 21 press statement from Sega Sammy.  

Article HERE

Takeaway: SJM wants a piece of the action in South Korea


MAR – announced the launch of CANVAS, a global incubator for food and drink concepts. Mariott is inviting entrepreneurs, chefs, bartenders and artisans to visit and pitch a food or drink concept for a select group of Marriott hotels, beginning with the JW Marriott Shenzhen (China) and Renaissance Phoenix Downtown. During the next six months, the number of locations will grow to approximately a dozen hotels across the globe.

Article HERE

Takeaway: MAR looking to jump start its F&B offerings.


HOT– completed the sale of the Philadelphia Airport Complex to The Lightstone Group and its affiliates. Located on Island Avenue one mile from Philadelphia International Airport (PHL), the Philadelphia Airport Complex consists of three Starwood properties including the 252-room Sheraton Suites Philadelphia Airport, the 177-room Four Points by Sheraton Philadelphia Airport and the 136-room Aloft Philadelphia Airport. All three properties will be operated by Island Hospitality, undergo renovations and continue to fly the three brand flags.


Starwood purchased the Philadelphia Airport Complex in 1998 and converted the two existing hotels to its Sheraton and Four Points by Sheraton brands. The company then built and added Aloft Philadelphia to the complex in 2008.

Takeaway: While not a material transaction in terms of price or EBITDA, HOT continues its asset-light strategy.


RCL – Royal Caribbean announced the last few Freedom of the Seas itineraries were changed and while the ports the ship was planning on visiting remains unchanged, the amount of time in port is being reduced.  As with other altered cruises due to this propulsion problem, Royal Caribbean will give passengers onboard credit as an apology for the change.  A letter with the credit amount will be delivered to each stateroom. There is no word on what caused the propulsion problems. Royal Caribbean maintains the ship is perfectly safe.  Freedom of the Seas is scheduled for a dry dock session in January 2015.

Article HERE

Takeaway: RCL doing damage control on Freedom of the Seas


Southern China Crackdown on Porn and Gambling – Police  in Guangdong Province said Sunday they captured more than 30,000 suspects in a two-month crackdown on porn and gambling. As of Dec. 15, the province arrested 3,014 people and more than 5,000 others were put under criminal detention in the campaign, said the Guangdong Provincial Public Security Department.

Article HERE

Takeaway: Porn, gambling and all illicit activities continue to be the focus of enforcement and crackdown efforts.


Japan may pass gambling bill by June – Dynam Japan Holdings Co. Ltd. (06889.HK), the largest operator of pachinko (pinball slot machine) halls, believes there is a '99%' chance the Japanese parliament to pass a bill legalizing casinos by June 2015.  Dynam chairman Yoji Sato He said part of the reasons why Prime Minister Shinzo Abe dissolved the parliament in November was to ensure enough support for the gambling bill.

Article HERE

Takeaway: It's good to be optimistic but Dynam is definitely in the minority here.


November Macau Inflation – The Statistics and Census Service said the annual rate of consumer price inflation was 6.12% during November due to higher rents for housing, pricier meals in restaurants and costlier health care were the main causes. The annual rate of housing and fuel price inflation was 11.75%, the annual rate of food and non-alcoholic drink price inflation was 6.3% and the annual rate of health cost inflation was 5.42%.

Article HERE

Takeaway: With housing inflation in the low-double digits, the labor unions may continue to pressure the gaming operators for higher wages despite the drop in GGR.


New Jersey Officials Discuss New Casinos – As lawmakers in Trenton hash out the details of a referendum that could allow casino gambling to expand beyond Atlantic City, local politicians, businessmen and others are touting the benefits of their locations. The Meadowlands and Jersey City have a clear head start, but locations in Essex, Monmouth and Sussex counties also have been raised as possibilities in various quarters. The referendum under discussion, which would go before the voters in November, is expected to focus on two key points: ending Atlantic City’s statewide monopoly on casinos, and explaining that a portion of revenues from North Jersey casinos would go to support the struggling seaside resort and its casino industry. 

Article HERE

Takeaway: New Jersey fighting to keep its citizens gaming at home, while also trying to capture the metro New York gaming spend.  Recall the State of New York could open metro New York to table gaming in seven years.


New York Native American Gaming Expansion – The Oneida Nation announced plans Sunday to open a Class II casino this spring with 436 slots and a 500-seat bingo hall off Route 5 in the unused portion of the Chittenango Tops plaza. It will be open 24 hours a day. The Oneidas received approval for the casino, which is on Oneida Nation land, through the New York State gaming compact in 1993, which was negotiated with the state and approved by the U.S. Secretary of Interior. The Chittenango casino announcement came just days after a state panel recommended licensing three non-Indian casinos in Upstate New York. Rochester developer Thomas Wilmot plans to build one of those - a $425 million casino and hotel - 42 miles west of Syracuse in Seneca County. The 67,000-square-foot Chittenango casino, to be called the Yellow Brick Road casino in honor of author L. Frank Baum's "The Wizard of Oz," will employ 250 people.

Article HERE

Takeaway: Following the State of New York up-state casino expansions, the Oneida Nation announces their effort to short trip Syracuse visitors to the Wilmot/Tyre casino. 


Hedgeye Macro Team remains negative Europe, their bottom-up, qualitative analysis (Growth/Inflation/Policy framework) indicates that the Eurozone is setting up to enter the ugly Quad4 in Q4 (equating to growth decelerates and inflation decelerates) = Europe Slowing.

Takeaway:  European pricing has been a tailwind for CCL and RCL but a negative pivot here looks increasingly likely in 2015.  

Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.52%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.67%

December 22, 2014

Keith takes questions from Real Time Alerts subscribers on the RTA positions as of 11:00AM on 12/22/14 and today's market activity.

European Banking Monitor: Sberbank CDS Continued Wider

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email 




Key Takeaway:

Last week saw another wild ride as the market entered the week with rising concerns about the fallout of falling oil and a potential Russian collapse, but exited the week on a higher note in response to the Fed and ECB talking about delaying rate hikes and potentially purchasing assets, respectively. Most of the CDS gauges, on average, ended little changed on the week. 


Looking ahead, headwinds prevail. Rising concerns around credit quality fallout in oil-sensitive areas are coupled to ongoing pressure in yield spreads. Translation: rising revenue pressure in conjunction with growing provision expense.


European Financial CDS - Swaps mostly widened in Europe last week, but results were somewhat mixed.  15 institutions' CDS tightened while 21 widened. Russia's Sberbank CDS continued to widen, increasing by 16 bps.  Sberbank's risk profile is well into the red with CDS at 583 bps.  


European Banking Monitor: Sberbank CDS Continued Wider - chart1 financials cds


Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps mostly tightened over last week, particularly across Europe. The catalyst for tightening was the Fed signaling it would not raise rates in the near future, and the ECB signaling it is ready to pursue asset purchases.


European Banking Monitor: Sberbank CDS Continued Wider - chart2 sovereign CDS


European Banking Monitor: Sberbank CDS Continued Wider - chart3 sovereign cds


European Banking Monitor: Sberbank CDS Continued Wider - chart4 sovereign CDS


Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. The Euribor-OIS spread was unchanged at 8 bps.


European Banking Monitor: Sberbank CDS Continued Wider - chart5 eruibor OIS spread



Matthew Hedrick 



Ben Ryan 





Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker

Note: Using the z-score in the tables below as a coefficient of variation for standard error helps us flag the relative market positioning of the commodities in the CRB Index. It is not intended as a predictive signal for the reversion to trailing twelve month historical averages. For week-end price data, please refer to “Commodities: Weekly Quant” published at the end of the previous week. Feel free to ping us for additional color.    



1.       CFTC Net Futures and Options Positioning CRB Index: The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) releases “Commitments of Traders Reports” at 3:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday. The release usually includes data from the previous Tuesday (Net Positions as of Tuesday Close), and includes the net positions of “non-commercial” futures and options participants. A “Non-Commercial” market participant is defined as a “speculator.” We observe the weekly marginal changes in the overall positioning of “non-commercial” futures and options positions to assess the directionally-biased capitulation risk among those with large, speculative positions.


  • The COTTON, WHEAT, AND ORANGE JUICE markets experienced the most BULLISH relative positioning changes week-over-week
  • The SUGAR, LEAN HOGS, AND SILVER markets experienced the most BEARISH relative positioning changes week-over-week

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart1 sentiment


2.       Spot – Second Month Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward looking prices in the near-term.

  • The SUGAR, CORN, AND NATURAL GAS markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES near-term
  • The HEATING OIL, SILVER, AND COPPER markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES near-term

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart2 spot 2nd month basis


3.       Spot – 1 Year Basis Differential: Measures the market expectation for forward-looking prices between spot and the respective contract expiring 1-year later.


  • The NATURAL GAS, BRENT CRUDE OIL, AND SUGAR markets are positioned for HIGHER PRICES in 1-year  
  • The LEAN HOGS, LIVE CATTLE, AND COCOA markets are positioned for LOWER PRICES in 1-year  

Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart3 spot 1yr basis


4.       Open Interest: Aggregate open interest measures the amount of opened positions in all actively traded futures contract months. Open interest can be thought of as “naked” or “directionally-biased” contracts as opposed to hedgers scalping and providing liquidity. Most of the open interest is created from large speculators or participants who are either: 1) Producers/sellers of the physical commodity hedging their cash market exposure or 2) Large speculators who are directionally-biased on price.


Commodities Weekly Sentiment Tracker - chart4 open interest         


Ben Ryan


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