Takeaway: We are adding HCA to Investing Ideas.
Please note that we are adding HCA (Hospital Corporation of America) to Investing Ideas today.
We will send out a report explaining our position next week.
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Here's a quick look at some of the top videos, cartoons, market insights and more from Hedgeye this past week.
Hedgeye’s Brian McGough Explains Why $KATE Is a Winner
Hedgeye’s Retail Team added KATE to our Best Ideas List as a long in early October. Sector Head Brian McGough hosted an institutional conference call yesterday ahead of earnings, detailing his bullish thesis and highlighting why KATE’s growth story is widely misunderstood. In the excerpt below, McGough outlines his 3 key points.
For access to the video in its entirety, contact email@example.com.
Friday's Morning Macro Call
This is a free sneak peek at Hedgeye's Morning Macro Call for institutional subscribers.
This is going to get really ugly.
Whinne the Putin
Deflation is pulverizing Vladimir Putin (and oil bulls). On Tuesday WTI crude was down another -2% to $77/barrel.
Not Even Putin the Great Can Stop Gravity | $RSX #Oil
On Wednesday the Russian stock market is down -25% year-to-date. Coincidentally, or not, the price of Brent crude is down right around -25% year-to-date as well.
How Good Is Employment Really?
As oil prices plunge to a three-year low, we wanted to know what you thought lies ahead.
The Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, will be hosting a conference call on Tuesday November 11th at 11:00am EST featuring Professor John B. Taylor of Stanford University.
Professor Taylor is a highly regarded scholar known for his research on the foundations of modern monetary theory and policy, which has been applied by central banks and financial market analysts around the world. In the call entitled, Are Global Central Banks Out of Bullets?, Professor Taylor will discuss his view of global monetary policy and where it goes from here.
KEY TOPICS WILL FOCUS ON
ABOUT JOHN TAYLOR
Takeaway: Below is an excerpt from an institutional macro note published this afternoon about today's unemployment report.
Relax, Bro! Its easy to go full myopia on Jobs Friday. I try my best to take a detached view of the mania.
October payrolls, with a net gain of +214K, was disappointing both vs. consensus expectations and in the context of very strong Initial claims and employment survey indices (ADP, ISM, etc).
Does a sequential slowdown in NFP signal a negative inflection in the domestic labor market – particularly given a negative birth-death drag, squirrely seasonals, a hard comp, declining slack and improving household survey metrics?
I don’t know, but that feels like a stretched read-through on a single month of data.
However, remaining willfully blind to the reality that we are late cycle and cresting from a fundamental perspective (alongside an ROW slowdown) feels equally myopic.
Thinking like a Fed Head: The prevailing view form a policy makers perspective is probably something akin to the following:
Payroll gains remain >200K and the trailing averages remain strong and the unemployment rate continues to decline (for mixed reasons) as do broader measures of labor slack.
Employment growth in the 20-35 YOA bucket is accelerating and the here-to mired 45-54 YOA bucket has had its first 4-month string of positive employment growth in the post-recession period.
Wage Inflation remains stubbornly stagnant but that's trend consistent and should improve as we move incrementally towards constrained capacity and reduced labor supply. At any rate, aggregate disposable personal income growth is accelerating and remains at post-recession highs currently.
All-in, the October payroll report (in isolation) = status quo for the current policy course.