Commodities: Weekly Quant

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart1 divergences

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart2 deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart3 USD Correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart4 S P correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart5 volume

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart6 implied vol

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart7 sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart8 1 mth correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart9 3 mth correlws

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 10 6 mth correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart11 1 yr correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart12 3 yr correls


Ben Ryan 


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 10th of November through the 14th of November is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.



The Week Ahead - 11.07.14 Week Ahead

HCA: Adding Hospital Corporation of America to Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are adding HCA to Investing Ideas.

Please note that we are adding HCA (Hospital Corporation of America) to Investing Ideas today.


We will send out a report explaining our position next week.

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The Best of This Week From Hedgeye

Here's a quick look at some of the top videos, cartoons, market insights and more from Hedgeye this past week.


Hedgeye’s Brian McGough Explains Why $KATE Is a Winner

Hedgeye’s Retail Team added KATE to our Best Ideas List as a long in early October. Sector Head Brian McGough hosted an institutional conference call yesterday ahead of earnings, detailing his bullish thesis and highlighting why KATE’s growth story is widely misunderstood. In the excerpt below, McGough outlines his 3 key points. 

For access to the video in its entirety, contact


Friday's Morning Macro Call

This is a free sneak peek at Hedgeye's Morning Macro Call for institutional subscribers.



The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Currency burning 11.3.14

This is going to get really ugly.

Whinne the Putin

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Russia whinnie oil 11.5.14

Deflation is pulverizing Vladimir Putin (and oil bulls). On Tuesday WTI crude was down another -2% to $77/barrel.


Not Even Putin the Great Can Stop Gravity | $RSX #Oil

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - chart2

On Wednesday the Russian stock market is down -25% year-to-date. Coincidentally, or not, the price of Brent crude is down right around -25% year-to-date as well.


How Good Is Employment Really?

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - COD 11.6.14


 $70 Oil? 

As oil prices plunge to a three-year low, we wanted to know what you thought lies ahead.


INVITE | Are Global Central Banks Out of Bullets?

INVITE | Are Global Central Banks Out of Bullets? - HE M centralbanks


The Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, will be hosting a conference call on Tuesday November 11th  at 11:00am EST featuring Professor John B. Taylor of Stanford University.


Professor Taylor is a highly regarded scholar known for his research on the foundations of modern monetary theory and policy, which has been applied by central banks and financial market analysts around the world. In the call entitled, Are Global Central Banks Out of Bullets?, Professor Taylor will discuss his view of global monetary policy and where it goes from here.



  • Assessment of monetary policy over the last five years.  What has worked and what hasn’t?
  • In light of recent moves by the ECB and BOJ, what will the Fed do next? And what can any of the central banks do if current policies remain ineffective?
  • While the Presidential election is two years away, will the nature of the Fed and its policy change under Republican leadership?
  • Where is the U.S. economy now and how will that impact Fed decision making?
  • An update on emerging market policy based on Professor Taylor’s recent visits to various emerging markets
  • Looking forward, what can the Fed due to regain its credibility over the long run?



  • Toll Free Number:
  • Direct Dial Number:
  • Conference Code: 855296#
  • Materials: CLICK HERE (The slides will be available approximately one hour prior to the start of the call)

Email for more information




  • Currently a Professor of Economics at Stanford University and a Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution
  • Formerly served on the President's Council of Economic Advisers and as a member of the Congressional Budget Office's Panel of Economic Advisers
  • Served as Under Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs from 2001- 2005
  • Oversight of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank
  • Responsible for coordinating financial policy with the G-7 countries
  • Accredited author, his latest the winner of the 2012 Hayek Prize, entitled: "First Principles: Five Keys to Restoring Americas' Prosperity"
  • Received numerous awards for his work as a researcher, public servant, and teacher
    • Awarded the Alexander Hamilton Award for his overall leadership at the U.S. Treasury, the Treasury Distinguished Service Award for designing and implementing the currency reforms in Iraq, and the Medal of the Republic of Uruguay for his work in resolving the 2002 financial crisis   

Siren Song: October Employment

Takeaway: Below is an excerpt from an institutional macro note published this afternoon about today's unemployment report.

Relax, Bro!   Its easy to go full myopia on Jobs Friday.  I try my best to take a detached view of the mania. 


October payrolls, with a net gain of +214K, was disappointing both vs. consensus expectations and in the context of very strong Initial claims and employment survey indices (ADP, ISM, etc).  


Does a sequential slowdown in NFP signal a negative inflection in the domestic labor market – particularly given a negative birth-death drag, squirrely seasonals, a hard comp, declining slack and improving household survey metrics?  


I don’t know, but that feels like a stretched read-through on a single month of data.  


However, remaining willfully blind to the reality that we are late cycle and cresting from a fundamental perspective (alongside an ROW slowdown) feels equally myopic.   


Siren Song: October Employment - 1


Thinking like a Fed Head:   The prevailing view form a policy makers perspective is probably something akin to the following:


Payroll gains remain >200K and the trailing averages remain strong and the unemployment rate continues to decline (for mixed reasons) as do broader measures of labor slack.


Employment growth in the 20-35 YOA bucket is accelerating and the here-to mired 45-54 YOA bucket has had its first 4-month string of positive employment growth in the post-recession period. 


Wage Inflation remains stubbornly stagnant but that's trend consistent and should improve as we move incrementally towards constrained capacity and reduced labor supply.  At any rate, aggregate disposable personal income growth is accelerating and remains at post-recession highs currently. 


All-in, the October payroll report (in isolation) = status quo for the current policy course.  


Siren Song: October Employment - 2


Siren Song: October Employment - 3





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