Our macro team’s biggest call this year? Being right on Treasuries. We bucked the consensus tide that the bond bubble was over via our long TLT recommendation which is up 18% YTD. Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says there’s no long-term support for the 10yr yield to 1.7%. "Just wait until another bad jobs report and/or multiple GDP misses and Yellen will freak out like Draghi," according to McCullough. It last hit 3% on 12/31/13 and 2% in May 2013.
- Mixed results for restaurant stocks in September as valuations fluctuated by segment. Casual Dining, Coffee, Family Dining and Sandwich stocks all had multiple expansion during the month, while Fast Casual, Fine Dining and Pizza stocks had multiple contraction.
- Takovers (BAGL,THI) have driven the multiples in the Coffee segment, which has now overtaken Fast Casual as the most expensive segment on an EV-to-EBITDA basis, with BAGL, DNKN, KKD, SBUX and THI all trading above their average valuations since 2010.
- Casual Dining, Fast Casual and Fine Dining stocks are currently trading at the most compelling valuations of the bunch relative to their more recent historical means.
- Casual Dining is trading at one of the lowest multiples out of all of the segments, which we believe means two things: 1) it is likely to attract activist investors and 2) it will pressure management teams to pursue value enhancing initiatives (BLMN).
- Family Dining is trading near the high end of its range due to the recent activist activity surrounding BOBE.
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Takeaway: Hedgeye called the move in Treasuries and small caps.
The Russell 2000 is a certified train wreck down double-digits (-10.2%) from where we called it the all-time #bubble high in small cap illiquidity.
Meanwhile, overall market volume continues to accelerate on the down days (Total Equity Market Volume was up +25.7% yesterday vs. 3 month average on the -1.5% sell-off in the Russell 2000). Don’t underestimate how hard it is for funds to get out of some of these exposures.
Meanwhile, we’ve remained long the Long Bond (in TLT terms), despite Old Wall consensus saying otherwise. It's up over 18% YTD. Yields can, in fact, go a lot lower from here. There’s no long-term support for the UST 10YR Yield to 1.7%.
Why settle for Old Wall research? Join the winning team today.
Tickers: BYI, ISEL, LVS, H
- Oct 2: G2E Las Vegas
- Oct 8: HT Investor Day
BYI/GTK:IM – GTECH’s board has approved the merger of GTECH into Georgia Worldwide, or what GTK is calling the NewCo, which is part of its deal to buy IGT. The board also approved the repurchase of 16.676 million GTK shares, which is part of the transaction.
Takeaway: The merger progressing seemingly faster than projected.
ISLE – The Davenport Planning and Zoning Commission approved a plan to alter a comprehensive plan for a 108-acre site at the southwest corner of Interstates 74 and 80 to accommodate a casino and seven-story hotel. The property rezoning will allow Dan Kehl and his casino company to migrate the Rhythm City Casino from a riverboat to a land based casino. The proposed the casino will encompass a $110 million, seven-story, a 143-room hotel, a 1,500-seat event center and 33,800 square feet of gaming space.
Takeaway: The development a land based casino in Davenport will likely cannibalize ISLE's Bettendorf riverboat.
LVS – (Bloomberg) Mr. Adelson suggested the VIP gambling business in Macau could see a recovery in two months following a Chinese government crackdown on corruption sapped demand.
Takeaway: What constitutes "recovery"?
LVS – (Bloomberg) During a discussion at G2E, Mr. Adelson said Las Vegas Sands would be interested in building a casino at the Meadowlands racetrack in New Jersey, if proposals to expand casino gambling beyond Atlantic City were approved by state legislators.
Takeaway: Low tax rate needed to move the needle.
H – announced Interval Leisure Group has completed the previously announced acquisition of Hyatt Residential Group from affiliates of Hyatt Hotels Corporation. The purchase price of approximately $220 million includes Hyatt's interest in a joint venture that owns and is developing Hyatt Kanapali Beach, a 131-unit shared ownership property in Maui. In connection with the acquisition, a subsidiary of ILG has entered into a global Master License Agreement with respect to the exclusive use of the Hyatt brand in shared ownership.
Macau Golden Week Visitation – October 1st visitation was 136,908, +10% year-over-year while visitors from mainland China was 104,569, an increase of 2.3% year-over-year
Takeaway: Overall strong visitation growth, but visitation from mainland China trailing expectations.
Communist Party China Add'l Reform – the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee released a statement announcing that the fourth plenary session of the CPC 18th Central Committee, which is set to discuss rule of law, will be held from Oct. 20 to 23. This will be the first time a plenary session of the CPC Central Committee has taken rule of law as its central theme. And rule of law is a must if the country wants to build a prosperous society and comprehensively deepen reform. All in all, the 65th anniversary of the PRC's founding seems a new start for further reform and exploration of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
Takeaway: Stay tuned for additional reforms.
Occupy Central spills into Macau – In Macau, organizers say about 500 activists are gathering at the Praca Da Amizade to show solidarity with Hong Kong protests. The gathering had been approved by the territory's government. The meeting was first planned to take place in front of Macau's Legislative Assembly, but later moved
Takeaway: Growing discord moves from Hong Kong to Macau but very unlikely to be sustained there.
New Jersey Sports Betting – (mycentralnewjersey.com) Two New Jersey state senators, Democrat Raymond Lesniak and Republican Joseph Kyrillos announced that they intend to introduce the legislation when the Senate meets Oct. 9. They say the bill would reinforce the state attorney general’s position that the state can legally lift the ban on sports betting, so long as it does not specifically authorize the wagering.
Hedgeye remains negative on consumer spending and believes in more inflation. Following a great call on rising housing prices, the Hedgeye
Macro/Financials team is turning decidedly less positive.
Takeaway: We’ve found housing prices to be the single most significant factor in driving gaming revenues over the past 20 years in virtually all gaming markets across the US.
Client Talking Points
The Russell 2000is now down double-digits (-10.2%) from where we called it the all-time #bubble high in small cap illiquidity; volume continues to accelerate on the down moves (Total Equity Market Volume +25.7% yesterday vs. 3 month average); don’t underestimate how hard it is for funds to get out of some of these exposures.
It didn’t take much (one ISM sequential slow-down print yesterday) to get us paid on the core Long Bond positions; just wait until another bad jobs report and/or multiple GDP misses; Yellen will freak like Draghi has, and there’s no long-term support for the UST 10YR Yield to 1.7% vs. 2.39% last.
Many bought “consumer stocks” on the falling oil thesis – that didn’t work (Consumer Discretionary, XLY, is -4.6% in the last month with Oil hitting new lows); this is what happened in what we call #Quad4 in 2008 as well; both inflation and growth is slowing, at the same time (we’ll outline this on the Macro Themes Call at 1:00pm EDT).
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Top Long Ideas
The Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury (EDV) is an extended duration ETF (20-30yr). Now that we have our first set of late-cycle economic indicators slowing in rate of change terms (ADP numbers and the NFP number), it's time to really think through the upcoming moves of this bond market. We are doubling down on our biggest macro call of 2014 - that U.S. growth would slow and bond yields fall in kind.
Fixed income continues to be our favorite asset class, so it should come as no surprise to see us rotate into the Shares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) on the long side. In conjunction with our #Q3Slowing macro theme, we think the slope of domestic economic growth is poised to roll over here in the third quarter. In the context of what may be flat-to-decelerating reported inflation, we think the performance divergence between Treasuries, stocks and commodities may actually be set to widen over the next two to three months. This view remains counter to consensus expectations, which is additive to our already-high conviction level in this position. Fade consensus on bonds – especially as growth slows. As it’s done for multiple generations, the 10Y Treasury Yield continues to track the slope of domestic economic growth like a glove.
Restoration Hardware remains our Retail Team’s highest-conviction long idea. We think that most parts of the thesis are at least acknowledged by the market (category growth, real estate expansion), but people are absolutely missing how all the pieces are coming together to drive such outsized earnings growth over an extremely long duration. The punchline of our real estate analysis is that a) RH stores could get far bigger than even the RH bulls seem to think, b) Aside from reconfiguring 66 existing markets, there’s another 19 markets we identified where the spending rate on home furnishings by people making over $100k in income suggests that RH should expand to these markets with Design Galleries, and c) the availability and economics on large properties for all these markets are far better than people think. The consensus is looking for long-term earnings growth of 28% -- we’re looking for 45%.
Three for the Road
TWEET OF THE DAY
WTI Crude Slips Below $90 for First Time in 17 Months – http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-02/wti-crude-slips-below-90-for-first-time-in-17-months.html
QUOTE OF THE DAY
Perseverance is the hard work you do after you get tired of doing the hard work you already did.
STAT OF THE DAY
Europe is slowing; Italy leads losers -1.4%, Portugal -1.3% and Russia continues to crash -20.7% year-to-date.
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