Chart of The Week: Copper Cracks...

This is, easily, the most interesting major chart in Global Macro right now.



  1. It’s the only one that’s not saying buy everything Chinese right here and now.
  2. It’s the only one that’s not saying that the Buck is going to Burn below the $74 line (US Dollar Index).
  3. It’s the only major macro chart that has been down for the last 3 weeks in a row (other than the US Dollar).

Last week, Dr. Copper lost another -2% of his value, closing out the week at $2.78/lb. There were plenty of reasons to support weakness in terms of what really matters to an asset’s price – supply/demand.


On Thursday, LME (London Metals Exchange) inventories for copper hit their highest levels since May. This morning, Jiangxi Copper, China’s largest copper smelter, made comments overseas about seeing a resurgence in scrap supply. On the margin, these data points certainly aren’t bullish for Dr. Copper’s price.


Altogether, for now at least, Chinese demand and the US Dollar are the two most dominant drivers of what happens on my screens every morning. Dr. Copper is telling me to pay attention to a scenario where Chinese demand slows (China’s stock market is -14.5% from its YTD high for a reason) and the US Dollar stops going down.


Tops and Bottoms, of course, are processes, not points. My immediate term TRADE point price for Copper is $2.85/lb (dotted red line in the chart below), while my intermediate term TREND point price is $2.54/lb.


Broken TRADE and Bullish TREND. Risk managers, take note.



Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


Chart of The Week: Copper Cracks...  - a1


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more