prev

Charting Brazil: Breaking Down?

Since I wrote my "Fading Fast Money" morning call on 5/21, Brazil's stock market is down -12.1%. Call us lucky or call us right, we're cool with both.

The chart of the Brazilian Bovespa Stock Index is as interesting as any Global Macro one that I am currently looking at. Within my macro model, its critical to differentiate between a "Trade" (short term) and "Trend" (intermediate term). From this perspective, Brazil is actually broken on a short term "Trade" basis, for the 1st time in Q2. Brazil's central bank continues to raise rates aggressively, and economic historians will recall that Brazil has indeed had economic cycles in the past!

The Bovespa got crunched on Friday, closing down -3% at 64,613, underperforming the US stock market, which has rarely happened in 2008. This was an important macro callout and negative divergence.

"Trend" line support for the Bovespa is 61,300. Clearly, for the "own everything agriculture community" this levee line needs to hold. On the upside, a recovery rally closing above 66,082 would definitely be incrementally bullish.

As always, I remain data dependent.
KM
(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

NEVADA UNEMPLOYMENT: SCARY CHART

May unemployment numbers were released recently and they weren't promising. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate jumped to 6.2% from 5.7% in April. This is the biggest monthly jump we've seen in at least 30 years and the highest rate since 1994. Clearly, growing unemployment and the lousy housing environment are not good for the Las Vegas locals gaming market. Considering the precipitous drop in Boyd Gaming's stock price, Wall Street expectations for the locals business are already dismal. The high unemployment rate is also indicative of Strip layoffs due to weakening business levels and more importantly for stock prices, management expectations of a further slowdown. We can all tout the historical resiliency of Las Vegas but I'll be watching layoffs as one metric to help gauge the true tone of executives' outlook.

Charting India: Finally Oversold!

On Friday, we finally got the weekly inflation report out of India that really woke people up to the reality of Asian Stagflation. Now that the BSE Sensex Stock Exchange is down -19% since we got aggressively short it at the beginning of May, it's time to lock in some gains here.

With India trading off another -1.9% overnight, taking the Sensex down to 11,162, I am going to be covering the India Fund (IFN) short position in my fund at some point in the next few days. I'll be re-shorting it on an up day.
KM

(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

GET THE HEDGEYE MARKET BRIEF FREE

Enter your email address to receive our newsletter of 5 trending market topics. VIEW SAMPLE

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

Charting China: Next Support, -7% Lower...

Chinese investors continue to run for the exits. The Shanghai Stock Exchange closed down another -2.5% overnight at 2895, and I do not see support for this chart until the 2701 line.

At 2701, the Chinese crash will be -62% from the "it's global this time" October 2007 peak.

The Olympics are in August, and I don't see the payoff of getting long this river card of geo-political risk factors until at least late July.
KM

(chart courtesy of stockcharts.com)

Great Expectations...

Not surprisingly, Fed Funds Futures have moved back to reality, pricing in a 90% chance that Bernanke will NOT raise interest rates this week.

I have focused on this current mania of Fed Centricity as one of the major risk factors to the US stock market. We have the likes of Larry Kudlow and Vince Farrell on CNBC parroting whatever it takes to push the Federal Reserve to do something that helps prop up the US stock market. Three months ago it was give us shock and awe, cut, cut, cut . Today, it's the reverse, hike, hike, hike. Its manic, short term, and unsustainable behavior.

Government intervention is not the answer to our problems. This is America - the great bastion of capitalism, not a Keynesian social net.

De-leveraging and saving continues to be my investment strategy of choice, until all of this nonsense clears itself from our screens. The new range I am using for the S&P 500 is 1311-1340.
KM

LIZ: Core Brand Inflecting?

I like this story a lot for reasons having nothing to do with current sales trends. But what I think is a key metric of brand performance is heading up while the stock heads down. Noteworthy call out.


I continue to like LIZ - a lot. Not the brand. Not the competitive positioning. Not the industry. But the tools at this management team's disposal to create shareholder value over the next 18 months. I outline these in depth in my 5/13 posting, but the crux is that with accelerated cliff vesting of (underwater) options in 2009, and just about the biggest SG&A lever in the industry, I think that over the next 12 months we'll see either a) SG&A investments pay off (unlikely), b) management rescind the invested capital and print as margin (more likely), or c) LIZ do nothing and we see some major corporate action. All of these would probably be good for the stock.

But I'd be remiss to not at least acknowledge that the company has a base business in the interim. After all, when all is said and done, the company is still in the business of selling clothes. That's where I picked up an incrementally positive trend.

Even though LIZ is a portfolio of over 40 apparel brands, the core Liz Claiborne brand still accounts for about a third of cash flow. As such, it is not a shocker that the stock still trades in line with this business. I don't like to look at aggregate sales numbers, but rather what I call the price-adjusted sell-thru rate. What this refers to is the merchandise price change needed to push a given sell-thru rate through the channel. The chart below shows that LIZ has traded spot-on with this rate over the past year. That is - until March, when this ratio inflected positively, though the stock wants to do nothing but go down. The price action does not smell right to me.

For a company with $3 in EPS power, this price action does not make much sense to me. Again, I'm not saying that LIZ SHOULD print a $3 EPS number, but simply that it CAN, and the incentives are aligned for this to come to fruition.


Exhibit Source: NPD Fashionworld and Research Edge, LLC

real-time alerts

real edge in real-time

This indispensable trading tool is based on a risk management signaling process Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough developed during his years as a hedge fund manager and continues to refine. Nearly every trading day, you’ll receive Keith’s latest signals - buy, sell, short or cover.

next