Restoration Hardware Q&A

Today, we held a call with Hedgeye Retail Sector Head Brian McGough on Restoration Hardware’s (RH) upcoming IPO for Retail Pro subscribers. McGough covered everything from growth to target markets to financial difficulties. We’ve provided the Q&A portion of the call for you to enjoy. If you’re interested in becoming a Retail Pro subscriber, please visit this webpage.




Takeaway: MGM could continue to be under pressure

Keith shorted MGM in our Real-Time Positions at $9.95.  MGM's TRADE and TREND resistance is at $10.29 and $10.76, respectively.



As MGM nears its 52-week low, we think there is further room to the downside.  A difficult macro environment and a secular decline in slot demand should continue to pressure results.  We're below the Street on Q4 and 2013.  Slot volumes, which we believe is the ultimate barometer of the health of Vegas, have fallen in five out of the last six months.  According to our trend projection model, we expect the downward trend to continue for the rest of 2012.  September was up slightly but the month contained two extra weekend days - a calendar boost that will reverse in October.  Management did say they are seeing better Strip trends in early Q4 but they said the same last quarter and missed expectations badly.   




Takeaway: The election, fiscal cliff and renewed EU concerns triggered sharp selloffs in Financials. Credit markets were dragged lower as well.

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .


Key Takeaways:

 * U.S and EU bank swaps were wider last week, on the heels of the American presidential elections, mounting fears about the looming fiscal cliff in the United States, and renewed concerns regarding Greek austerity. In the United States the money center banks and the large brokers saw that most widening. In Europe, bank swaps were wider, led by Italy, Spain, and France.


 * On OMTs Reporting: The ECB has stated that Aggregate Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and their market values will be published on a weekly basis and the average duration of Outright Monetary Transaction holdings and the breakdown by country will take place on a monthly basis. There is no indication that the OMTs has been initiated to date.



If you’d like to discuss recent developments in Europe, from the political to financial to social, please let me know and we can set up a call.


Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst





European Financials CDS Monitor – European financials followed Euro sovereigns, widening wee-over-week. Swiss banks were wider by 6 bps, while Spanish and Italian banks widened by 10-32 bps. French banks widened noticeably, while German banks widened slightly.


European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY - aa. banks


Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bp to 12 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk.


European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY - aa. euribor


ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – No change in the trajectory here - overnight deposits continue to shrink. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  


European Banking Monitor: THE ELECTION, THE CLIFF AND THE AUSTERITY - aa. facility

Early Look

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Bearish Overtones

Short interest for the NYSE, AMEX and NASDAQ currently indicates a bearish overtone for stocks. For the two weeks ended 10/15 short interest for NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX combined ticked down to 3.65% of the float from 3.67% prior. That’s the lowest ratio since the two weeks ended 5/15. We bounced off of 1364 in the S&P 500 (TAIL support) last week and are quite capable of re-testing that level this week.


Bearish Overtones  - shortinterest

DAX: German Upside

Last week, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough noted that his quantitative models indicated it was an excellent time to buy the DAX. While we currently have no active position in our Real Time Alerts, you can see that the DAX has been oversold in the last few days and is nearing TRADE support of 7103. Keep your eye on the prize.


DAX: German Upside - dax normal

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