(Swine) Flu Season Already?

At the risk of being alarmist, we are pointing out the following graphics on (Swine) Flu with caution.  In no way is the Research Edge Retail team pretending to be CDC workers or doctors, but we would be foolish to ignore such eye opening trends.  The charts below tell the story, although we can say with certainty the media isn’t shying away from what may become the most talked about national topic in the coming weeks and months.   As evidence as to how consensus the concerns are, do a quick Google News search for “Flu” and you’ll find around 75mm hits, with about 39mm of them related to H1N1 specifically, and about symptoms, prevention, and the effectiveness of wearing surgical masks.

 

(Swine) Flu Season Already? - flu chart

 

We’ll leave it to you to decide if you want to stay home, avoid public places, and use Purell every five minutes.  However, we’re fairly sure if the Flu virus continues to permeate the rest of the U.S with the speed and breadth as we have observed in recent weeks in the South, then there will be implications for consumer spending in both quantity, category and channel.  

 

 (Swine) Flu Season Already? - flu map

 

So, how should we think about the potential impact of Swine Flu fear and/or actual symptoms impacting a large portion of the U.S population?  The obvious answer is to think about which retailers may benefit from this pandemic, which include CVS, WAG, and RAD. For those thinking about which companies may suffer most, mall-based retailing could take the biggest hit as consumers look to avoid highly populated public areas.  For the extremists, Amazon.com, Drugstore.com, FedEx, and UPS all could benefit from cocooning.

 

We don’t have all the answers and we’re not into “playing” names at the expense of human suffering, but this is a trend worth watching.  For now we’re digging to see if any impact is materializing in the South as the brown states have reached “widespread” levels of Flu activity.  And for those who haven’t bookmarked http://www.cdc.gov/flu/ now is a good time.

 

 

Eric Levine

Director



Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more