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The Best of This Week From Hedgeye

Takeaway: Here's a quick look at some of the top videos, cartoons, market insights and more from Hedgeye this past week.

HEDGEYE TV

Contributor Call: Short John Deere ($DE), Says BluePac's Chris Sommers

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough talks to Seeking Alpha Contributor and BluePac managing partner Chris Sommers about Sommers' high conviction short idea, John Deere. It's the latest from Hedgeye's video partnership with Seeking Alpha.

 

Video | McCullough: Why Volume Matters

In this excerpt from Tuesday's Morning Macro Call  for institutional subscribers, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough explains why accelerating volume in a down move is a clear risk signal. He also has more details about volume in our Early Look and Morning Newsletter products.

 

Real Conversations: Hanke, McCullough Talk Macro, Money Supply and More

 In this edition of Real Conversations, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has a wide-ranging conversation with Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at  Johns Hopkins University and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.

HEDGEYE MEDIA

Video | Daryl Jones Talks Market Peak on Fox Business 

Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones comments on investors reassessing growth forecasts after the market peak and struggles the consumer will face with Sandra Smith on Fox Business Network. Jones' remarks begin at 2:05 in the video above. 

CARTOON

Crank It Up

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - Bear volume 10.14.14

As markets are melting down, volume is going up.  Take Monday’s sell-off, for example. Total exchange volume soared 44% compared to its three-month average.

 

Safe Waters

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - TLT safewaters 10.15.14

In this market selloff, investors should ride with Treasuries.

CHART

Napoleon Complex

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - COD 10.15.14

 

#Nice Behavior

The Best of This Week From Hedgeye - COD 10.14.14

POLL OF THE DAY

 Oil Prices

As West Texas Intermediate crude drops to nearly a five-year low just above $80 a barrel Thursday morning, we wanted to know...

 

 


Commodities: Weekly Quant

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart1 deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart2 deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart3 USD correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart4 S P correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart5 Volume

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart6 implied vol

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart7 sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart8 1m correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart9 3m correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart10 6m correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart11 1 year correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart12 3 year correls

 

Ben Ryan

Analyst

 


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 20th of October through the 24th of October is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - 10.17.14 Week Ahead

 


Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

Real Conversations: Hanke, McCullough Talk Macro, Money Supply and More

 

In this edition of Real Conversations, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough has a wide-ranging conversation with Steve Hanke, a Professor of Applied Economics at  Johns Hopkins University and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute.


OC: Removing Owens Corning from Investing Ideas

Takeaway: We are removing OC from our high-conviction stock idea list.

We will take the hit here in OC.  We have been wrong on the name and don’t want to compound that error by holding it in a volatile market that is inhospitable to underperforming smaller capitalization names.  While our long-term research view on OC remains favorable, we expect 3Q 2014 results to be poor and are not sure if the company will lower 2014 guidance.  In a less volatile market, we would assume that the weak 3Q numbers had already been priced in.  In the current volatile market, that could prove a risky assumption.

 

We are pulling OC right as the company implements price increases in its roofing and insulation businesses.  It will take a couple of quarters for those price increases to be reflected in financial results, however.  As a result, we do not see a rush and expectations for 4Q 2014 are still elevated.

 

We do expect to re-enter OC and this might be viewed as a trading call.  Those who have invested during (or traded in) periods of high volatility may agree that OC will likely have poor top-down risk style factors for such an environment.  We could be wrong in pulling the name, but can also return to OC once the storm has passed – even if the shares are higher. 

 

OC: Removing Owens Corning from Investing Ideas - owens


Video Replay: #Bubbles Or Bottom?

Earlier today the Hedgeye Macro Team, led by CEO Keith McCullough, hosted a Flash Call #Bubbles or Bottom? On the call Keith highlighted the best places to "hide out in" in order to weather the market volatility.  

 

We encourage you to check out the Video Replay (click on the image below).

*This video is available for Hedgeye Macro Subscribers only.

 

To access the presentation referenced in this call CLICK HERE.

 

Our industry-leading fundamental macro research and proprietary quantitative risk management systems suggest a heightened probability of a market crash over the intermediate term. When juxtaposed against the consensus narrative of, "where do I buy the dip?", we think this is a call no one can afford to miss.  



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.32%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.48%
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