MACAU: 18% ON TOP OF 40%

Total table revenue in July grew 18% y-o-y, driven by 21% growth in the Mass and a 17% increase in the VIP market. The growth was even more impressive given the 40% comparison.

Macau is rolling, and not just the Rolling Chip segment.  An 18% table game increase - the best in a year - driven by VIP and Mass, is impressive enough.  Considering the difficulty of the comparison - +40% last year, the August 2009 performance is stunning.  Going forward, the catalysts remain positive:  11 straight easy comparisons beginning in September, high probability of a gaming tax reduction by the summer of 2010, excess demand, and more junket credit availability.  We remain concerned about the significant increase in Mass supply in 2010, but for these stocks that issue is light years away.

Crown, LVS, SJM, and MGM were the clear winners this month, all experiencing table growth in excess of market growth.  Crown gained more share as City of Dreams (CoD) continued its ramp.  SJM and MGM had strong growth despite weaker year-over-year hold comparisons.  LVS benefitted from high hold and growth at FS (although still too tiny to move the needle).  WYNN was the only operator which experienced a decline in table hold this month.

 

 

 

Y-o-Y Property Observations:

LVS table revenues up 19%

  • Sands was up 12%; with the entire increase driven by 24% growth in VIP win
    • VIP RC decreased at Sands (~25%),  however hold comparisons were very favorable
  • Venetian was down 4%; Mass down 6% and VIP down 3.5%
    • VIP RC (Rolling Chip) was down 18%, but hold was favorable
  • Four Seasons had a strong ramp in revenues with estimated table revenues of $50MM compared to an anemic July
    • RC more than doubled compared to July, hold was also very high

Wynn table revenues were down 10%

  • In a reversal from July, Mass was up 6%, offset by a 14% decline in VIP
    • Lower VIP revenues were due to a combination of lower RC volume and lighter hold

Crown table revenue up 33%

  • Altira was down 33%, RC volumes were down 35%
  • While not as strong as July, CoD had another good month, generating an estimated 110MM of revenues
    • Mass ramped to $20MM from $17MM in July
    • VIP RC grew 18% sequentially (so much for sell side reports claiming that Macau properties don't ramp)
    • Hold was above MPEL's "normal" 2.85% at both properties, but not as high as the huge hold % we saw at CoD in July

SJM was up 28%

  • Mass was up 30% and VIP was up 25% despite very weak hold
    • RC increase a whopping 58%

Galaxy table revenue was up 15%, entirely driven by a 19% increase in VIP win

  • Starworld continued to perform well with table revenue up 11%, driven by a 13% increase in VIP revenues despite weaker hold (on a easy comp)

MGM table revenue was up 23%

  • Mass revenues were down 2%, but VIP revenue was up 32%

 

 

Market Share:

-LVS share increased to 24% from 21% in July

  • Sands' share declined to 7%
  • Venetian & FS' share increased to 17.1%  from 12.3% in July
    • Most of the increase was driven by VIP up 6.7% to 16.5% from 9.9% in July

-WYNN had its weakest share month since we've been tracking this data (March '08) with share of only 12.6% vs 14.5% last month

-Crown market share wasn't as good as July at 17.8%, but still up materially at 16%

-SJM share was back up this month at 26.4% from 23.8% in July

-Galaxy lost a little share, ending at 10.1% vs 10.6% in July

-MGM's share decreased to 10.5% from 12.4% in July, but the company had one of its best share months since opening

                                                               MACAU: 18% ON TOP OF 40% - Macau Total Bac Marketshare

                                                               MACAU: 18% ON TOP OF 40% - Macau MM Rev Share Aug

                                                               MACAU: 18% ON TOP OF 40% - Macau RC Turnover Marketshare