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Commodities: Weekly Quant

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart1 divergences

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart 2 CRB Deltas

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart3 USD Correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart4 S P Correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart5 Volume

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart6 implied vol

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart7 cftc sentiment

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart8 1month correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart9 3 month correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart10

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart11 1 YR correls

Commodities: Weekly Quant - chart12 3 yr correls

 

 

Macro Team


The Week Ahead

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 1st of September through the 5th of September is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

The Week Ahead - 08.29.14 Week Ahead

 


#Q3Slowing

We’re seeing 3Q growth estimates come down today (again) alongside soft consumer spending data in July. 

 

Real consumer spending declined the most in 6 months to start 3Q, decelerating on both a 1Y and 2Y basis with softness ubiquitous across Services, Durables and Nondurables.  Notably, the savings rate ticked up to 5.7% - the highest level in 18 months.

 

In short, while the income-savings dynamics are shifting favorably for forward consumption, in the immediate/intermediate term (& inclusive of today’s negative growth revision), we think consensus estimates -  which remain laughably linear – need to come in further.

 

#Q3Slowing - PCE   RS MoM

 

#Q3Slowing - consumer spending YoY

 

#Q3Slowing - Chart of the Day

 

 

 

Christian B. Drake

@HedgeyeUSA


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.28%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%

Cartoon of the Day: Fightin' Words

Takeaway: Don't look now (if you're in the macro consensus) but the 10-Year is at 2.33%.

Cartoon of the Day: Fightin' Words - Fightin  Words 08.29.2014


Macro Consensus Remains Royally Flummoxed Over Epic Move in Treasuries

Takeaway: Macro consensus still doesn’t get it.

The UST 10YR Yield of 2.34% drives our Best Macro Idea (TLT) to a +17.2% gain for 2014 (and that’s pre dividends, the absolute return is even better). We can’t understand why macro consensus still doesn’t get the rate of return on slow-growth vs. Russell 2000 which is 0.0% YTD.

 

Watching too much TV, perhaps?

 

Macro Consensus Remains Royally Flummoxed Over Epic Move in Treasuries - TLT Chart


Restaurant Sector Valuation

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 1

NOTE SUMMARY

  1. Mixed results for restaurant stocks in August as valuations fluctuated by segment.  Coffee and sandwich stocks had multiple expansion during the month, while casual dining and fast casual had multiple contraction.  Valuations for family dining, fine dining and pizza stocks largely remained flat month over month.
  2. Fast casual continues to be the most richly valued segment of the restaurant industry, although a significant decline in previously high-flying NDLS has recently hampered the overall category.
  3. Multiple expansion in the coffee category was led by strength at KKD and the recent surge in THI’s stock following the announcement of its merger with BKW.

 Restaurant Sector Valuation - 2

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 3

restaurant industry

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 4

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 5

Casual dining category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 6

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 7

Coffee category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 8

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 9

family dining category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 10

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 11

fast casual category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 12

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 13

fine dining category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 14

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 155

Pizza category

 Restaurant Sector Valuation - 16

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 17

sandwich category

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 18

 

Restaurant Sector Valuation - 19

 

Have a wonderful Labor Day Weekend.

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst



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