Poll of the Day Recap: 56% Forecast a 10% Decline in the S&P 500

Takeaway: 56% voted for a 10% decline; 44% voted for a 10% rise.

Although the S&P 500 is down on the day it is still hovering near its all-time highs on essentially no volume, we want to know what you think is next for the S&P 500.


Today’s poll asked: What's next for the S&P 500; up 10% or down 10%?


Poll of the Day Recap: 56% Forecast a 10% Decline in the S&P 500  - bearvsbull


At the time of this post, 56% voted for a 10% decline; 44% voted for a 10% rise.


Those who forecast a 10% decline wrote:

  • From here, S&P 500 gain of 10% is about +195.  A gain of that magnitude seems quite unlikely with inflation accelerating, growth slowing, low volume...  However, the caveat is what will the Fed do?  Will the asset purchases taper cease soon?  Will the Fed begin increasing asset purchases again soon after ending the taper?  With greater currency devaluation, it wouldn't be too surprising to see the S&P 500 rise 10% in that monetary scenario.
  • It'll inch up, but not reach the 10% gain before it starts declining; there are too many weak economic factors to consider, and the investors who make the markets move will wise up soon enough..


Voters who predict a 10% rise wrote:

  • Despite what seem to be very real and logical macro conditions (for a bear case), emotions and optimism are driving the market for now (and that can't be ignored), so I'd place my bet on 10% up (first), before it eventually goes down.
  • Well at least another 5%  ; if you take the SP/500 range 1993 low to the 2008 high--a 161% Fib extension calls for   from the 1993 low to the 2008 high has 2042 since the 127% 1668 was breached....


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