Poll of the Day Recap: 76% Think the VIX Is Heading Higher

Takeaway: 76% said HIGHER; 24% said LOWER.

In today’s Morning Newsletter, Hedgeye Director of Research Daryl Jones questioned the lack of current market fear writing:

 

"…The area of foreign policy may be one key area in which the amount of concern or fear is lower than reality warrants.  From the Taliban in Pakistan, to the potential for an Iranian nuclear arsenal, to the ongoing conflict in the Ukraine, foreign policy risks remain.  Certainly these global hot spots create buying opportunities more often than global calamity, but at a VIX of sub 12, not a lot of calamity is priced in.”

 

But we wanted to know what you thought, so today’s poll question was: Is the VIX heading higher or lower?

 

Poll of the Day Recap: 76% Think the VIX Is Heading Higher - a storm is coming 246411
 

At the time of this post, 76% said HIGHER; 24% said LOWER.

 

Of those who voted HIGHER, they explained:

  • "I voted higher because, darn it, it can't really drift much lower, can it? Hey, everything is calm and serene...until it's not. It works until it doesn't, then a little panic sets in. One thing is certain: nothing is certain as long as the Fed keeps micro-managing my checking account."
     
  • "Currently, VIX is unusually low, so the expectation is steady, if not healthy robust growth.  The VIX will jump much higher when this rosy expectation isn't being realized."
     
  • "The risk reward on the VIX is definitely up. So higher."
     
  • "DJ said it best. The market is not expecting the unexpected. When unexpected things happen, reactions in financial markets turn flat-out violent."

However, this voter, who said it was heading LOWER, pointed out: "Like shorting the SPX, the VIX has been the pain trade of 2014. Of course a geopolitical event could send the VIX to 20 in a millisecond, but what type of event? Until such event happens, I believe the VIX will stay within KM's risk range of 11.## to 14."

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more

Europe's Battles Against Apple, Google, Innovation & Jobs

"“I am very concerned the E.U. maintains a battle against the American giants while doing everything possible to sustain so-called national champions," writes economist Daniel Lacalle. "Attacking innovation doesn’t create jobs.”

read more

An Open Letter to Pandora Management...

"Please stop leaking information to the press," writes Hedgeye Internet & Media analyst Hesham Shaaban. "You are getting in your own way, and blowing up your shareholders in the process."

read more