TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 15, 2014
As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 0.77% downside to 1874 and 0.66% upside to 1901.
SECTOR PERFORMANCE
EQUITY SENTIMENT:
CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:
- YIELD CURVE: 2.17 from 2.18
- VIX closed at 12.17 1 day percent change of 0.33%
MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):
- 7:30am: Empire Manufacturing, May, est. 6 (prior 1.29)
- 8:30am: Fed’s Dudley speaks in New York
- 8:30am: Consumer Price Index, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.2%)
- CPI Ex Food and Energy, April, est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
- 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, May 10, est. 320k (prior 319k)
- Continuing Claims, May 3, est. 2.690m (prior 2.685m)
- 9am: Net Long-term TIC Flows, March est. $40b (prior $85.7b)
- Total Net TIC Flows, March (prior $167.7b)
- 9:15am: Industrial Production, April, est. 0.0% (prior 0.7%)
- Capacity Utilization, April, est. 79.1% (prior 79.2%)
- Manufacturing (SIC) Production, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.5%)
- 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, May 11 (prior 37.1)
- 10am: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook, May, est. 14.0 (prior 16.6)
- 10am: MBA Mortgage Delinquencies, 1Q (prior 6.39%)
- Mortgage Foreclosures, 1Q (prior 2.86%)
- 10am: NAHB Housing Market Index, May, est. 49 (prior 47)
- 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
- 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
- TBA: Commerce Dept. issues benchmark revisions on factory orders, etc.
- 6:10pm: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
GOVERNMENT:
- Senate in session, House out
- President Obama speaks at National Sept 11th Memorial/Museum
- 10am: Senate Banking Cmte marks up housing finance bill; 538 Dirksen
- 10:30am: Sens. Durbin, Harkin, Murphy, Schatz, hold news conf. w/Young Invincibles to call on Education Dept to put stronger student protections for-profit college career ed pgms
- 10:30am: FCC set to decide whether to start writing open-Internet rules .
- Also considering policies, rules for broadcast TV spectrum incentive auction, aggregation spectrum rules for mobile wireless services
- U.S. Trade Representative Michael Froman visits China to talk with officials ahead of APEC Trade Ministers meeting in Qingdao
- U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Bill Clinton on Immigration; Democrats’ Ads
WHAT TO WATCH:
- Europe economy underperforms with weakness from France to Italy
- FCC to decide whether to write open-Internet rules
- France fortifies anti-takeover tool as GE-Siemens eye Alstom
- Cisco sales forecast tops ests. as Chambers seeks turnaround
- 13F deadline: Ackman, Buffett, Peltz to divulge holdings
- JPMorgan, Citigroup, others release monthly delinquencies
- CFTC reviews U.S. banks’ overseas trading for possible evasion
- Carlyle’s Rubenstein speaks as SALT Conference continues
- Changes announced for MSCI country index shuffle
- AstraZeneca cancer drug coveted by Pfizer shows promise in trial
- Senators ask for anti-trust review on PFE, AZN plan: Reuters
- Times Co. publisher said to always have clashed with Abramson
- Wynn, MGM plan Japan IPOs to fund casino projects
- Teva loses suit seeking to block FDA generic Copaxone approval
- Musk sees need for multiple “gigafactories” for battery demand
- Japan’s economy accelerated in 1Q before tax rise
- Senate Banking Cmte marks up Fannie Mae reform bill
- Murphy Oil looking to sell stake in Malaysian assets: WSJ
EARNINGS:
- Advance Auto Parts (AAP) 8:30am, $2.15
- Air Canada (AC/B CN) 6am, C$(0.48) - Preview
- Alliant Techsystems (ATK) 7am, $2.40
- Applied Materials (AMAT) 4:02pm, $0.28
- Autodesk (ADSK) 4:01pm, $0.21
- CA Inc (CA) 7am, $0.59
- CAE (CAE CN) 8:40am, C$0.20
- Flowers Foods (FLO) 6am, $0.30
- J.C. Penney (JCP) 4pm, $(1.22) - Preview
- Kohl’s (KSS) 7am, $0.63 - Preview
- Nordstrom (JWN) 4:04pm, $0.68 - Preview
- Power of Canada (POW CN) 2pm, C$0.61
- Prestige Brands (PBH) 6am, $0.33
- Teekay (TK) 8:30am, $(0.18)
- Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) 7:02am, $1.15 - Preview
COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)
- Nickel Plunges Most in 31 Months as Surge Judged to Be Overdone
- WTI Drops From Three-Week High as Stockpiles Gain; Brent Steady
- China Aluminum Sales for Beer Cans Foiling Deficit: Commodities
- Gold Below One-Week High as U.S. Outlook Weighed Against Ukraine
- Coffee Advances as Brazilian Output Seen Lower; Sugar Retreats
- Wheat Extends Longest Slump Since November on Ample World Supply
- Gold Sales Drop in Hong Kong Seen Signaling Lower Chinese Demand
- Steel Rebar Falls to Record Low as Chinese Mills Increase Output
- London Metal Exchange Gets Permission to Appeal Warehouse Ruling
- IEA Sees Higher Demand for OPEC Crude Amid Inventory Deficit
- Moscow Hosts Summit as Gazprom Warns Ukraine on Gas Cut: Energy
- Chocolate Consumption in Indonesia Seen Doubling in Three Years
- Long-Run Coking Coal Demand Underpinned by Steel, Urbanization
- Pemex May Struggle to Keep Output as Mexico Debates Energy Laws
CURRENCIES
GLOBAL PERFORMANCE
EUROPEAN MARKETS
ASIAN MARKETS
MIDDLE EAST
The Hedgeye Macro Team
