prev

Cartoon of the Day: Grocery Store Robbery

Takeaway: Americans say food prices are getting out of hand.

Cartoon of the Day: Grocery Store Robbery - Food Prices 5.14.2014

LEARN MORE ABOUT HEDGEYE.


Poll of the Day: Are You Feeling the Impact of Higher Food Prices at the Grocery Store?

The PPI report today showed (shocker!) that inflation is soaring – thanks in large part to food prices. Our question is simple today:

 


VIDEO | Keith's Macro Notebook 5/14: UST 10YR COMMODITIES EUROPE


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

Video | McCullough on Fox: You Have To Consider Front Running the Fed

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough talks markets on Fox Business' Opening Bell with host Sandra Smith, filling in for Maria Bartiromo.

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


BLMN: Closing Best Idea Short

We added Bloomin’ Brands (BLMN) to our Best Ideas list on 11/27/2013 at $26.71/share.  Since this time, 2014 EPS estimates have been revised down from $1.33 to $1.22 and the share price has acted accordingly (down ~20%).  With this note we are removing Short BLMN from our Best Ideas list.

 

In our view, Bloomin’ still has issues but we feel our short thesis is largely played out.  At 8.02x EV/EBITDA (NTM) and 16.66 P/EPS (NTM), Bloomin’ screens rather attractively relative to other casual dining companies.  With that being said, we continue to believe casual companies in general are quite expensive.

 

Considering an attractive relative valuation and reset expectations, we believe the short setup is no longer favorable from a risk/reward perspective.  Decelerating two-year same-store-sales trends and stagnant margins continue to give us cause for concern, but staying short at these levels is no longer compelling. 

 

Despite our move to the sidelines, we continue to believe 2015 estimates for 19% EPS growth on 7% revenue growth are too aggressive.

 

Research Recap:

New Best Idea: Short Bloomin’ Brands (11/27/2013)

BLMN: A Bloomin’ Mess (01/13/2014)

BLMN: Beat & Guide Down (02/25/2014)

BLMN: Still Bearish (05/09/2014)

 

BLMN: Closing Best Idea Short - 1

 

Howard Penney

Managing Director

 

Fred Masotta

Analyst


Video | McCullough on Fox: You Don't Ask Wall Street What They Think of Gold

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough shares his thoughts on investing in gold with host Sandra Smith, filling in for Maria Bartiromo, on Fox Business' Opening Bell.

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

next