THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

 TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 13, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 1.35% downside to 1871 and 0.12% upside to 1899.                                              

                                                                                 

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10A

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.25 from 2.27
  • VIX closed at 12.23 1 day percent change of -5.34%

 

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 12:30am: Fed’s Lockhart speaks in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business, April, est. 94.5 (prior 93.4)
  • 7:45am: ICSC weekly sales
  • 8:30am: Retail Sales, April, est. 0.4% (prior 1.1%, rev. 1.2%)
  • 8:30am: Import Price Index, April, est. 0.3% (prior 0.6%)
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 10am: Business Inventories, March, est. 0.4% (prior 0.4%)
  • 10:30am: Fed’s Lacker speaks in Charlotte, North Carolina
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • House out of session, Senate in
    • 9:30am: Brookings holds discussion on “The Future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac” with FHFA Director Mel Watt
    • 10am: Senate Agriculture Cmte hearing on high-frequency;  witnesses incl. CFTC head of mkt oversight Vince McGonagle, CME’s Terrence Duffy
    • 10am: United States Energy Assn holds discussion on North American LNG exports
    • 10am: Commerce Sec. Penny Pritzker on Natl Export Initiative at Atlantic Media HQ
    • 12pm  Alliance for American Manufacturing on steel import report w/Sens. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Jeff Sessions, R-Ala.
    • 12:45pm: Resources for the Future holds discussion with Exelon CEO Chris Crane
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Cong. Dist. Income Inequality; Crisco Dies

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Pfizer said to plan raising AstraZeneca bid for second time
  • Pfizer CEO to make AstraZeneca case to U.K. parliament
  • FHFA Director Mel Watt speaks on GSEs at Brookings
  • AT&T is said in advanced talks to buy DirecTV for ~$50b
  • China industrial production, investment show slowdown deepening
  • Ukraine rebels ask to join Russia as Gazprom threatens a cutoff
  • KKR eyes Spanish banks, may seek role managing bad bank assets
  • Lockhart says Fed weighs role of funds rate amid stimulus exit
  • Facebook said to take steps to open a sales office in China
  • 2 former Qualcomm sales directors charged with insider trading
  • German investor confidence drops for 5th month on growth risks
  • Airbus earnings beat estimates as costs on A380 come down
  • RBS’s U.S. unit Citizens files for $100m IPO in New York
  • Bloomberg Canada Economic Summit
  • Neb., W.Va. hold primaries

AM EARNS:

    • Convergys (CVG) 8:30am, $0.29
    • CST Brands (CST) 7am, $0.19
    • Encana (ECA CN) 6am, $0.53 - Preview
    • First Majestic Silver (FR CN) 7am, $0.10
    • Insys Therapeutics (INSY) 7am, $0.27
    • Resolute Energy (REN) 6am, ($0.01)
    • RioCan Real Estate Investment (REI-U CN) 7am, C$0.42

PM EARNS:

    • Element Financial (EFN CN) 5:06pm, C$0.10
    • Finning International (FTT CN) 4:32pm, C$0.41
    • Fossil Group (FOSL) 4:01pm, $1.17
    • Legacy Oil (LEG CN) Aft-Mkt, C$0.09
    • Renren (RENN) 6pm, $0.05
    • Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) 4:05pm, $0.09
    • URS (URS) 4:05pm, $0.69
    • Wix.com (WIX) Aft-Mkt, ($0.36)

 

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Nickel Nears Resistance That May Spur Drop Before Further Rally
  • WTI Crude Reaches Two-Week High on Supply Forecast; Brent Climbs
  • Tire Rubber Plunging as Vietnam Tappers Expand Glut: Commodities
  • Copper Trades Below Two-Month High as China Factories Slow Down
  • Wheat Heads for Longest Decline This Year on Ample Global Supply
  • Gold Declines as Improving U.S. Economy to Dollar Cuts Demand
  • Sugar Advances as Rainfall Forecast for Brazil; Cocoa Also Rises
  • Rebar in Shanghai Falls to Record Low on Steel Output Increase
  • Soybean Imports by China Seen Recovering as Fish Farms Buy Feed
  • Libya Oil Output May Double as Protests in Western Region End
  • Ukraine Boosts Russian Gas Imports as Gazprom Deadline Looms
  • Russian Pork Imports Fell 34% This Year Through May 5 After Ban
  • LNG May be Europe’s Future Fuel If Shale Fails: Outlook
  • Mexico Oil Opening May Be Foreigners’ Gusher as Pemex Struggles

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more

REPLAY: Review of $EXAS Earnings Call (A Hedgeye Best Idea Long)

Our Healthcare Team made a monster call to be long EXAS - hear their updated thoughts.

read more

Capital Brief: 5 Things to Watch Right Now In Washington

Here's a quick look at some key issues investors should keep an eye on from Hedgeye's JT Taylor and our team of Washington Policy analysts in D.C.

read more

Premium insight

[UNLOCKED] Today's Daily Trading Ranges

“If I could only have one thing of the many things we have it would be my daily ranges." Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough said recently.

read more

We'll Say It Again: Leave Your Politics Out of Your Portfolio

If your politics dictates your portfolio positioning, the Democrats and #NeverTrump crowd out there have had a hell of a week.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: 'Biggest Tax Cut Ever'

President Donald Trump's economic team unveiled what he called last week, "the biggest tax cut we’ve ever had.” Before you get too excited about that hang on a sec. "Trump Tax Reform ain’t gettin’ done anytime soon," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look.

read more