Poll of the Day Recap: 83% See US #HousingSlowdown

Takeaway: 83% YES; 17% NO.

Poll of the Day Recap: 83% See US #HousingSlowdown  - houses and hotels

 

#HousingSlowdown is one of Hedgeye’s Q2 Macro Themes. We have been big housing bulls over the last 18 months. But the party is ending. Asymmetry in being long has flattened. Price follows demand on a lag and demand is slowing as affordability declines, regulatory changes drag on liquidity, and institutional interest ebbs. 

 

So in today’s poll we asked: Is the U.S. housing market slowing down?


At the time of this post, the clear majority went toward 83% voting YES; 17% responding NO.

 

(Voters sharply swung so much in one way, that we didn’t receive any comments on why people voted NO.)

 

Here’s a sampling of some of the responses we received:

  • “Yes, slowing down fast, and for a while now as I mentioned before. PARTICULARLY interesting rebuttal to the bulls is that the weakness was bigger in the West while the Northeast region was the most resilient. Sort of refutes the weather excuse the bulls make, no?”
     
  •  “Housing stats have definitely slowed on the latest reports. But the big picture in housing is long-term distorted, so today's ‘slowing’ doesn't mean what it did pre-2007.”
     
  • “No wage increase to match increase home prices.”
     
  • “Low inventories and lower rates equate to a one percenters recovery and the continuing disconnect between the Fed/Admin and the middle-class.”
     
  • “I hope so, need the price to drop for me to buy in a couple years... keep them rates low for me too Yellen #30Fixedrateat3.0anda10%discount.”

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.


7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more

Got Process? Zero Hedge Sells Fear, Not Truth

Fear sells. Always has. Look no further than Zero Hedge.

read more