#HousingSlowdown is one of Hedgeye’s Q2 Macro Themes. We have been big housing bulls over the last 18 months. But the party is ending. Asymmetry in being long has flattened. Price follows demand on a lag and demand is slowing as affordability declines, regulatory changes drag on liquidity, and institutional interest ebbs.
So in today’s poll we asked: Is the U.S. housing market slowing down?
At the time of this post, the clear majority went toward 83% voting YES; 17% responding NO.
(Voters sharply swung so much in one way, that we didn’t receive any comments on why people voted NO.)
Here’s a sampling of some of the responses we received:
- “Yes, slowing down fast, and for a while now as I mentioned before. PARTICULARLY interesting rebuttal to the bulls is that the weakness was bigger in the West while the Northeast region was the most resilient. Sort of refutes the weather excuse the bulls make, no?”
- “Housing stats have definitely slowed on the latest reports. But the big picture in housing is long-term distorted, so today's ‘slowing’ doesn't mean what it did pre-2007.”
- “No wage increase to match increase home prices.”
- “Low inventories and lower rates equate to a one percenters recovery and the continuing disconnect between the Fed/Admin and the middle-class.”
- “I hope so, need the price to drop for me to buy in a couple years... keep them rates low for me too Yellen #30Fixedrateat3.0anda10%discount.”