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Destiny's Coincidence

This note was originally published at 8am on April 07, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“A thin line separates destiny from coincidence.”

-T.J. Stiles

 

That’s a great quote about a great capitalist by T.J. Stiles in The First Tycoon. Cornelius Vanderbilt was a Dutch boy who learned the ways of one of the most important waterways in world commerce from his family’s waterside farmhouse.

 

Farm life has always tended to erode the line between childhood and adulthood. Cornele (his childhood name) lived a life of work and responsibility, hoeing and milking, piling and shoveling. There was church too.” (The First Tycoon, pg 19)

 

In other words, one of America’s most important self-made capitalists of the early 19th century was a #grinder. He didn’t borrow to spend. He built things that made money. And he bought companies that he didn’t have time to build. He wouldn’t have been long of bubbles in social media terms.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

What is the destiny of a bubble that #OldWall media refuses to call a bubble? With 74% of companies who have come public in the last 6 months not making any money (only eclipsed by the Nasdaq bubble of 1999 when that number was 80%), what could possibly go wrong?

 

Destiny's Coincidence - Bubbles floating in the a 007

 

BREAKING: Nasdaq -2.6% on Friday, snapping @Hedgeye TREND support of 4203

 

Risk happens fast. With the social media stock bubble crashing (single stock moves have been -20-45% from their all-time peak), the Nasdaq is already -5.3% off its YTD high. Since the SP500 is only -1.3% from her all-time-bubble closing high, it must be a bargain!

 

To review what last weeks snappy correction in the Nasdaq looked like within the context of everything else:

  1. Nasdaq -0.7% on the week to -1.2% YTD
  2. Dow (which we signaled SHORT on Thursday in #RealTimeAlerts) +0.5% last week, but -1.0% YTD
  3. US Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) down another -0.1% last wk to -3.3% YTD

This all makes sense to us as our Top Q1 Global Macro Theme was #InflationAccelerating, which:

  1. Slows real consumption growth (short consumer stocks)
  2. Pays those who are long of inflation, in inflation terms

How does one own 2011 style stagflation?

  1. Utilities (XLU) up another +1.1% last week to +9.2% YTD
  2. REITS (MSCI Index) up another +1.3% last week to +9.5% YTD
  3. Gold up +0.7% last week to +8.3% YTD

That boring #GrowthSlowing setup sure beats being long Yelp (-32% since it’s 1st wk of March social media-bubble high)! See our new Internet Analyst, Hesham Shabaan’s, bearish note on YELP from last week. The growth expectations embedded in that stock are scary.

 

Away from being long #YieldChasing, you can also be long things like inflation via:

  1. CRB Commodities Index +0.6% on Friday vs Nasdaq -2.6% (CRB Index = +8.8% YTD)
  2. CRB Foodstuffs Index up another +0.6% last week to +19.8% YTD
  3. Coffee up another +2.4% last week to +63.8% YTD

I know, I know. Some of the smartest hedge funds on the planet are not long Coffee – they are long Twitter (TWTR) and Facebook (FB)! Why would you buy something like Pigs (+20.4% YTD), Soybeans (+15.4% YTD), or what Vanderbilt loved to get long of in his early days (Cotton +9.5% YTD)?

 

Smart in this game is as smart does. That’s capitalism. And so is reminding people of the score. This time won’t be different. Market history says that if A) Inflation Accelerates and B) Growth Slows, equity markets see multiple compression.

 

Two points of multiple compression on the SP500 (to 14x an earnings number that is too high) gets you 1638. Consensus is still looking for what it should have been looking for at this time last year (multiple expansion as inflation fell and growth accelerated). SP500 consensus for 2014 is still 1928.

 

Growth, as an investment style factor, looks like this for the last month:

  1. Top 25% Sales Growth (top quartile in the SP500) is -2.8%
  2. Top 25% EPS Growth is -2.6%
  3. High Beta -1.2%

So, is this the beginning of the end for growth stocks, or is it the end of the correction?

 

Consensus (measured by the net long or short position in futures and options contracts) seems to think the latter. SP500 Index and E-mini moved to a NET LONG position of +38,651 contracts into Friday’s close. That’s the longest the the Street has been of beta since late December.

 

In other words, right as the front-month of US Equity Fear (VIX) made another higher-low last week, consensus hedge funds covered high and got longer. In our playbook that’s no coincidence. The destiny of bubble prices confirming lower-highs on accelerating down-day volume isn’t either.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.66-2.81%

SPX 1840-1890

Nasdaq 4090-4203

USD 79.96-80.66

Gold 1273-1318

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Destiny's Coincidence - Chart of the Day

 

Destiny's Coincidence - Virtual Portfolio



Nimble and Changing

“Small, nimble, fast changing.”

-Julia Lovell

 

That’s how Julia Lovell described early 19th century England (relative to China) in The Opium War. “While China’s slavish people had been homogenized into speaking one language … and sympathizing in the same manners.” (pg 79)

 

As a company or a country, you do not want to become 17-19th century China. You don’t want to be what Europe morphed into during the 20th century either. As a Canadian capitalist who came to this country in the 1990s, I often wonder what America’s 21st century will look like. It’s not what it used to be.

 

Sadly, the path of least resistance is one of a slower-growth bureaucracy. That’s not my opinion. That’s the history of countries who age. So don’t do that. Do what you can to put two-feet on the floor every morning and earn your keep; fight the tyranny of government groupthink; be nimble and changing.

 

Nimble and Changing - nimble

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

If only because I finally took a vacation, watching the US equity market melt-up to lower-highs on no volume was interesting to watch, intermittently. But one week does not an intermediate-term TREND make. As a friendly reminder, it’s late April and most major US stock market indices are down year-to-date.

 

Inclusive of the Dow (which we are short in Real-Time Alerts via the DIA) and US Consumer Discretionary stocks (XLY) rising +2.4-2.5% last week, they are both still -1.0% and -4.6% for 2014. If you are long America thinking this is the 1990s #StrongDollar growth cycle again, that is not good.

 

Two of our most outside of consensus Global Macro Themes are:

  1. US #InflationAccelerating
  2. US #ConsumerSlowing

Both have continued to play out in April. While they are bearish from a cyclical and secular US consumption growth perspective (see our Q2 Global Macro Themes deck for details), there are obvious ways to play this from the LONG side:

  1. Long Inflation, explicitly, via Commodities (DBA, UNG, CAFE, etc.)
  2. Long Inflation, protection, via Treasury Inflation (stagflation) Protection (TIPs)
  3. Long #GrowthSlowing via Bonds (TLT) and any slow-growth Equity (XLU) that looks like a bond

Those speaking the Fed’s language (“there is no inflation”) and/or #OldWall consensus (“Wall Street Bond Dealers Whipsawed on Bearish Treasury Bets” –Bloomberg this morning) don’t get this, yet. But markets do.

 

Speaking of YTD market scores, how about those commodity markets!

  1. CRB Food Index up another +2.7% last week to +21.6% YTD
  2. Coffee and Soybean prices up again last week to +77% and +19% YTD, respectively
  3. Natural Gas +2.6% last week to +15.8% YTD

I know, I know. As long as you don’t eat and/or plan on running the air conditioning in your house this summer, those food and utility bills (according to those speaking one language in Washington) are “non-core” to what you really need to be spending on – a $600-700 iPhone 6 upgrade!

 

Nimble and Changing - Chart of the Day

 

While I was in the pool with my kids Thursday, our long Natural Gas (UNG) and Coffee (CAFE) buy-signals in Real-Time Alerts ripped. But don’t tell the Fed that. They’re still saying what US consumers had to pay (front-month) to heat their homes this winter was “transient.”

 

Sure, almost every “fundamental” analyst in the Federal League can tell you that there is an “over-supply of Natural Gas” in America. But most of them won’t tell you there is an over-supply of people who were long the Dow and social media stocks on January 1st.

 

The YTD score doesn’t lie though; those saying there is no inflation do.

 

Into the belly of US “earnings season” (and away from the aforementioned asset allocations to commodities and bonds), how does all of this look from a Hedgeye Style Factoring perspective (in US Equities) in the last month?

  1. Top 25% Sales Growth Companies (Top Quartile of SP500 Companies) are -2.2% (vs. the bottom 25% being +2.2%)
  2. Top 25% EPS Growth Companies are -1.3% versus the bottom quartile being +2.6%
  3. High Beta Equities are -0.2% versus Low Beta +1.8%

Since it’s also NHL Playoff season, as Herb Brooks said in Miracle, “Again!”

 

Again, and again, and again… for centuries, big, fat, centrally planned countries who have devalued the purchasing power of their people in exchange for political safety have lost this war. It ends with inflation. And inflation slows both growth, and the multiples markets pay for them.

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

SPX 1

Nasdaq 3  

USD 79.11-80.03

Brent Oil 108.21-110.62

Natural Gas 4.46-4.78

Gold 1

Corn 4.94-5.11

 

Best of luck out there this week,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer


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April 21, 2014

April 21, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

April 21, 2014 - Slide2

April 21, 2014 - Slide3

April 21, 2014 - Slide4

April 21, 2014 - Slide5

April 21, 2014 - Slide6

April 21, 2014 - Slide7

April 21, 2014 - Slide8

 

BEARISH TRENDS

April 21, 2014 - Slide9

April 21, 2014 - Slide10

April 21, 2014 - Slide11

April 21, 2014 - Slide12


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 21, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 47 points or 1.71% downside to 1833 and 0.81% upside to 1880.                                                

                                                                               

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                             

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.32 from 2.33
  • VIX closed at 13.36 1 day percent change of -5.78%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed, March, est. 0.20 (prior 0.14)
  • 10am: Leading indicators index, March, est. 0.7% (prior 0.5%)
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $3.25b-$4b in 2019 sector
  • 11am: U.S. to announce plans for auction of 4W bills
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $25b 3M, $23b 6M bills

GOVERNMENT:

  • Vice President Joe Biden to Ukraine, meets w/govt officials
  • Congressional Delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Cmte Chairman Ed Royce travels to Ukraine
  • 8:30am: Outgoing NTSB Chairman Deborah Hersman speaks about her tenure at National Press Club
  • 9:30am: Supreme Court issues list of cases it may consider
  • 10am: Supreme Court hears arguments in Argentinian bond case
  • 11am: Supreme Court hears arguments in Coca-Cola false-advertising cases
  • House, Senate out of session on recess
  • WASHINGTON RECESS: Nationals Park Eats, Shakespeare’s Birthday
  • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: New Koch Attack; NRCC Sees More Contenders

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Pfizer said to have held now-dormant talks to buy AstraZeneca
  • Barrick-Newmont deal talks said to hit snag on spinoff plans
  • Keystone review delay angers pipeline backers
  • SEC said to weigh shining light on how brokers route stocks
  • Square Inc. discussed possible sale to Google: WSJ
  • Japan’s trade deficit widens as export growth weakens
  • Ukraine says Russia prepares grounds to invade after deaths
  • Tesla poised to start delivery of Model S to Chinese drivers
  • China Auto Show coverage
  • Teva rejected by Justice Roberts on generic copaxone delay
  • BofA, NYSE sued by Providence, RI, on high-frequency trading
  • VW signals outselling GM in China; carmakers gather in Beijing
  • Pacific-trade talks proceed as agreement eludes U.S., Japan
  • Express Scripts awarded 7-yr Tricare Pharmacy pact
  • ’Captain America’ takes N.A. box office for third week
  • Barclays to exit some commodities trading: FT
  • 2014 Boston Marathon takes place amid heightened security

AM EARNS:

  • Halliburton Co (HAL) 7am, $0.71  - Preview
  • Hasbro (HAS) 6:30am, $0.10 - Preview
  • Kimberly-Clark (KMB) 7:30am, $1.47  - Preview
  • SunTrust Banks (STI) 6am, $0.66

PM EARNS:

  • BancorpSouth (BXS) 4:01pm, $0.30
  • Brookfield Canada Office (BOX-U CN) 5pm, C$0.43
  • Brown & Brown (BRO) 4:15pm, $0.42
  • Cadence Design Systems (CDNS) 4:05pm, $0.20
  • Celanese (CE) 4:35pm, $1.21
  • CYS Investments (CYS) 4:01pm, $0.36
  • Hexcel (HXL) 4:06pm, $0.49
  • Netflix (NFLX) 4:05pm, $0.81
  • Rambus (RMBS) 4:05pm, $0.12
  • Rent-A-Center (RCII) 4:15pm, $0.55
  • Rogers Communications (RCI/B CN) 4pm, C$0.71  - Preview
  • Umpqua Holdings (UMPQ) 4:05pm, $0.23
  • Waste Connections (WCN) 4:05pm, $0.41
  • Zions Bancorporation (ZION) 4:10pm, $0.42

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Gold Drops to Two-Week Low as Technical Indicator Signals Losses
  • India’s Top Court Ends Ban on Iron Ore Mining in State of Goa
  • Hedge Funds Cut Gold Bets in Longest Slide of 2014: Commodities
  • India Said to Forecast Normal Monsoon Rainfall as El Nino Looms
  • Brent Falls Amid Speculation Price Gains Excessive; WTI Steady
  • Barclays to Exit Some Commodities Trading on Revenue Decline: FT
  • China Spot Copper Premium Surges as Supply Cut: Chart of the Day
  • Wheat Declines to One-Week Low as Rains Seen Helping U.S. Crops
  • China Nickel Concentrate Imports Hit 19-Month High on Prices
  • Strike-Hit Platinum Companies Increase Pay Offer Amid Strike
  • Korea Agro-Fisheries Buys 19,521 Tons of Rice in Tenders
  • Rebar in Shanghai Drops Near 1-Month Low on Signs of Weak Demand
  • Libya Currently Pumping 235,000 Bbl/Day of Crude: NOC Spokesman
  • Indonesia’s Kharisma Sells 6,000 Tons of Crude Palm Oil (Table)

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

    


THE WEEK AHEAD

The Economic Data calendar for the week of the 21st of April through the 25th of April is full of critical releases and events.  Attached below is a snapshot of some (though far from all) of the headline numbers that we will be focused on.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD - week


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