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Yellen’s Dollar Devaluation

Client Talking Points

NASDAQ

I learn a lot more from developing bears on the bounces than I do on the drops: A) bearish TREND resistance of 4203 remains intact, B) QQQ just registered a lower-high on one of the weakest volume Wednesday’s of 2014. Neither A nor B are good

USD

Yellen’s Dollar Devaluation comments yesterday – encouraging more of what is slowing growth = inflation – keeps the US Dollar under selling pressure this morning. Four months into the year, I haven’t watched a slow-moving train wreck like this since 2011.

UST 10YR

You’d think bonds would sell off for real (if the social media bubble was going to bubble up again, for real). Nope. The 10-year yield is actually down 2 bps in the last 48 hours – a clean cut US #GrowthSlowing signal that should have legs well into the third quarter of this year.

Asset Allocation

CASH 40% US EQUITIES 0%
INTL EQUITIES 6% COMMODITIES 18%
FIXED INCOME 18% INTL CURRENCIES 18%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
HOLX

Hologic is emerging from an extremely tough period which has left investors wary of further missteps. In our view, Hologic and its new management are set to show solid growth over the next several years. We have built two survey tools to track and forecast the two critical elements that will drive this acceleration.  The first survey tool measures 3-D Mammography placements every month.  Recently we have detected acceleration in month over month placements.  When Hologic finally receives a reimbursement code from Medicare, placements will accelerate further, perhaps even sooner.  With our survey, we'll see it real time. In addition to our mammography survey. We've been running a monthly survey of OB/GYNs asking them questions to help us forecast the rest of Hologic's businesses, some of which have been faced with significant headwinds.  Based on our survey, we think those headwinds are fading. If the Affordable Care Act actually manages to reduce the number of uninsured, Hologic is one of the best positioned companies.

OC

Construction activity remains cyclically depressed, but has likely begun the long process of recovery.  A large multi-year rebound in construction should provide a tailwind to OC shares that the market appears to be underestimating.  Both residential and nonresidential construction in the U.S. would need to roughly double to reach post-war demographic norms.  As credit returns to the market and government funded construction begins to rebound, construction markets should make steady gains in coming years, quarterly weather aside, supporting OC’s revenue and capacity utilization.

DRI

Darden is the world’s largest full service restaurant company. The company operates +2000 restaurants in the U.S. and Canada, including Olive Garden, Red Lobster, LongHorn and Capital Grille. Management has been under a firestorm of criticism for poor performance. Hedgeye's Howard Penney has been at the forefront of this activist movement since early 2013, when he first identified the potential for unleashing significant value creation for Darden shareholders. Less than a year later, it looks like Penney’s plan is coming to fruition. Penney (who thinks DRI is grossly mismanaged and in need of a major overhaul) believes activists will drive material change at Darden. This would obviously be extremely bullish for shareholders and could happen fairly soon driving shares materially higher.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Russell and Nasdaq still -6.4% and -6.2% from their bubble highs @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"To avoid criticism, do nothing, say nothing, and be nothing." - Elbert Hubbard

STAT OF THE DAY

Former COO Henrique de Castro left Yahoo with a severance package worth $58 million, according to a regulatory document filed with the SEC. The golden parachute is among the most generous in history, and especially notable given than de Castro worked at Yahoo for only 15 months. He was shown the door in January. (CNN)


The Art of Selling

This note was originally published at 8am on April 03, 2014 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Selling is hard to teach because it is about what exists in your head and what goes on in your whole life.”

- Mrs. Shibata, the top salesperson at Dai-ichi Life in Japan

 

The quote above come from Philip Delves Broughton’s 2012 book “The Art of the Sale.”  In his book, Broughton studies the most successful habits of some of the best sales people across various industries worldwide – from a Moroccan man who sells carpets and tiles in a bazaar, to some of the world’s most famous actors and musicians, to the top saleswoman at Japanese life insurance Dai-ichi Life, to Steve Jobs making the complex simple with Apple’s revolutionary products.   

 

Selling is an art and there is no singular way to be successful at the art of persuasion.  Often times the same tactics fail to work consistently; hard work, persistence, patience, charisma, knowledge, perceptiveness and having extremely good product are all qualities that allow for the subjects in the text to find success selling.

 

The Art of Selling - handshake2

 

The biggest take-away is learning by observing.  Incorporating the best practices of others, while simultaneously discarding the negatives, helps us all optimize our daily processes in the never-ending, impossible, pursuit of perfection.

 

Whether we realize it or not, we are all selling something on a daily basis – pitching an idea to your PM, convincing your current or potential investors why your investment strategy is going to be most effective, or getting your kids to eat their daily serving of fruits and vegetables.  Many of our actions are “non-sales selling” practices – i.e. motivating & moving others.

 

So get out there and make a sale today.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind...

 

In the interest of saving myself the embarrassment of providing my macro thoughts, I’ll leave you with three of our current, non-consensus investment ideas:

 

Long Brazil (BRL; EWZ) - Stealth call by the (self-proclaimed) best dressed member of the Hedgeye team, macro analyst Darius Dale; The Brazilian real is up +3.1% Mom and the EQZ ETF is up +12.8% MoM.  Our macro team makes calls on the slope of line, and in Brazil’s case, we believe the Growth/Inflation/Policy fundamentals are going from really bad to less – similar to Indonesia last year.  Depressed valuations and bombed-out prices make this an interesting market to get involved in if you think US monetary policy is getting easier, at the margins, like we do. 

 

After being the bears in 2013 and heading into 2014, we think EM capital and currency markets are poised to continue outperforming their developed market counterparts over the intermediate-term. In Brazil specifically, the World Cup and upcoming elections are two significant and underappreciated catalysts that could be very positive from both a macroeconomic and investor sentiment perspective.

 

Short C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) - This is a rare structural short with low barriers to entry with the advent of lower cost technology solutions creating an increase in the competitive landscape in 3rd Party Logistics.  We expect both margin and multiple compression to cut CHRW in half.  Sector Head Jay Van Sciver is presenting our black book tomorrow at 11am EST. 

 

Long Legg Mason (LM) – Legg is positioned as a prime beneficiary of pension fund flows out of equities and into fixed income with assets over-indexed to both institutional and fixed income exposure at 71% and 55% respectively relative to peers. We estimate half of the $1T in equity exposure outflows to be reallocated towards fixed income as institutional pension funds look to capture higher re-investment rates. With favorable style factors (i.e. high short interest and bearish sentiment), the highest free cash flow yield in the sector, and discounted multiple, LM continues to be one of our top longs.

 

Upcoming Events at Hedgeye:

 

Short CHRW – Tomorrow 11am est.

Long HOLX – Monday 4/7 11am est.

Q2 Macro Themes – Tuesday 4/8 1pm est.

Please email sales@hedgeye.com for access.

 

Covering some of the top investors on the West Coast, I have the privilege of learning from some of the top non-consensus thinkers in our industry.  It’s fun to learn from all of you on a daily basis, while hopefully helping you make some money in the process!

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.67-2.82%

SPX 1865-1894

VIX 12.77-14.72

USD 79.41-80.32

Gold 1270-1321

 

The best defense is a good offense,

 

Ryan Fodor

Associate, Sales

 

The Art of Selling - Chart of the Day

 

The Art of Selling - Virtual Portfolio


April 17, 2014

April 17, 2014 - Slide1

 

BULLISH TRENDS

April 17, 2014 - Slide2

April 17, 2014 - Slide3

April 17, 2014 - Slide4

April 17, 2014 - Slide5

April 17, 2014 - Slide6

April 17, 2014 - Slide7

April 17, 2014 - Slide8

 

BEARISH TRENDS

April 17, 2014 - Slide9

April 17, 2014 - Slide10

April 17, 2014 - Slide11


Early Look

daily macro intelligence

Relied upon by big institutional and individual investors across the world, this granular morning newsletter distills the latest and most vital market developments and insures that you are always in the know.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 17, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 70 points or 2.76% downside to 1811 and 1.00% upside to 1881.                                         

                                                                                      

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.27 from 2.26
  • VIX  closed at 14.18 1 day percent change of -9.16%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

 

  • 8:30am: Jobless Claims, April 12, est. 315k (prior 300k)
  • Continuing Claims, April 5, est. 2.780m (prior 2.776m)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Economic Expectations, April (prior -12)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, April 13 (prior -31.9)
  • 10am: Philadelphia Fed, April, est. 10 (prior 9)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • John Kerry in Geneva for meeting with officials from Ukraine, Russia; EU to discuss ongoing situation in and around Ukraine
    • CFTC comment, request deadline for commercial end-users impacted by Dodd-Frank
    • 8:25am:  Northrop Grumman CEO Wes Bush at Economic Club of Washington, D.C. for discussion on defense industry, cybersecurity
    • 9am: American Gas Association holds conf. call briefing to discuss estimates for 2013 U.S. natural gas reserves
    • U.S. ELECTION WRAP: Sebelius May Challenge Roberts; FEC Reports

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Post said to reach $2.5b agreement for Michael Foods
  • High frequency traders said to be subpoenaed in N.Y. inquiry
  • Weibo said to raise $286m pricing shares at low end of range
  • Apple said to prepare song-ID feature for iPhone update
  • Yahoo nominates three new directors as Mayer’s pay drops 32%
  • Discovery said to drop out of bidding for U.K.’s Channel 5
  • Google sales miss underscores mobile-transition challenges
  • Google earnings, rev. miss may pressure Internet stocks
  • GM move to freeze suits may cut customer payouts by billions
  • GM had ignition-switch scare in testing Cadillac SRX in 2007
  • Reynolds American says Susan Cameron to return as CEO
  • European car sales up 7th straight month on Renault growth
  • Sony PlayStation 4 sales reach 7m on surging demand
  • Toyota plans Scion line overhaul amid fading sales
  • John Kerry in Geneva for mtg w/Ukraine, Russia, EU officials
  • Equity markets closed tomorrow for Good Friday holiday

AM EARNS:

    • Alliance Data Systems (ADS) 7:30am, $2.71
    • AutoNation (AN) 6:15am, $0.72
    • Baker Hughes (BHI) 6am, $0.78 - Preview
    • Baxter International (BAX) 7am, $1.09 - Preview
    • BB&T (BBT) 5:45am, $0.70
    • BlackRock (BLK) 6:30am, $4.10
    • Blackstone (BX) 7am, $0.55
    • Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) 8am, $2.87 - Preview
    • Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8am, $0.08
    • Dover (DOV) 7am, $1.02
    • EI du Pont de Nemours (DD) 6am, $1.59 - Preview
    • Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) 7:30am, $0.03
    • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30am, $0.42
    • First Horizon National (FHN) 7am, $0.14
    • General Electric (GE) 6:30am, $0.32 - Preview
    • Goldman Sachs (GS) 7:35am, $3.49 - Preview
    • Honeywell International (HON) 7am, $1.26 - Preview
    • KeyCorp (KEY) 6:14am, $0.24 - Preview
    • Mattel (MAT) 6am, $0.07 - Preview
    • Morgan Stanley (MS) 7:15am, $0.60 - Preview
    • National Penn Bancshares (NPBC) 6:31am, $0.17
    • PepsiCo (PEP) 7am, $0.75 - Preview
    • Philip Morris (PM) 6:59am, $1.16 - Preview
    • PPG Industries (PPG) 8:11am, $1.84
    • Rockwell Collins (COL) 7:21am, $1.07
    • Sherwin-Williams (SHW) 7am, $1.09
    • Snap-on (SNA) 7am, $1.54
    • Sonoco Products Co (SON) 7:30am, $0.51
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $2.37 - Preview
    • UnitedHealth Group (UNH) 6am, $1.09 - Preview
    • Webster Financial (WBS) 7:55am, $0.49

PM EARNS:

    • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 4:15pm, $0.00
    • Athenahealth (ATHN) 4:01pm, $0.16
    • Select Comfort (SCSS) 4:01pm, $0.32

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Go Short Iron Ore Says StanChart as Steel Mills to Fail in China
  • Brent Crude Trades Near Six-Week High on Ukraine Risk; WTI Gains
  • Platinum Strike Widens Output Deficit Lasting Years: Commodities
  • Gold Import Curbs Seen Continuing in India to Protect Currency
  • Nickel Advances for Second Day on Indications of Curbed Supply
  • Wheat Rebounds as U.S. Weather to Ukraine Boost Supply Concerns
  • Gold Declines Below $1,300 as U.S. Economy Weighed With Ukraine
  • Sugar Drops as Demand Trails Abundant World Supply; Coffee Gains
  • Japan Adds Pork Tariff Cut to Beef in Trade Pact With Australia
  • Rebar in Shanghai Falls to 2-Week Low on Demand, Iron Ore Price
  • Ship Billionaires Unite Against Maersk Amid Container Rout
  • Midnight Welding Picks Up Labor Slack That Imperils Shale Boom
  • Exxon Russia Oil Output Unfazed by Politics, Plans Expansion
  • Burger King Hamburger Gets a Chicken Makeover as Beef Costs Rise

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH

Takeaway: Expectations should weigh on the growth style factor in the US. Chinese growth is bottoming out – on both a reported and prospective basis.

CONCLUSIONS (USA):

 

  1. While we’re likely to see post-winter optical strength in the MAR/APR timeframe, we continue to believe that the trend in domestic economic growth is decelerating and will continue to decelerate over the intermediate term. An acceleration in reported inflation coupled with a slowdown in both house price appreciation and housing sector activity remain our primary catalysts for the aforementioned deceleration in the consumption-heavy US economy.
  2. This is especially true in the context of consensus expectations that continue to bake in our team’s 2013 bull case as the base case scenario for 2014 and beyond.
  3. The likelihood that US economic growth continues to slow relative to those expectations should perpetuate what we have been appropriately signaling as a regime change in market leadership that is likely to be supported by the introduction of easier monetary policy (both on an absolute basis and relative to existing expectations) over the intermediate term.
  4. As such, we continue to favor high-yielding assets (i.e. Treasuries, REITs, Utes), carry trading strategies (i.e. emerging markets) and inflation hedges (i.e. TIPS and commodities) in lieu of consumer exposure and high-growth/high-beta names, at the margins.
  5. The biggest near-term risk to our view is that likely sequential strength in reported economic data over the next 1-2M is extrapolated as confirming evidence of a consensus bias towards favoring the growth style factor in domestic capital markets. The biggest long-term risk to our view is a Federal Reserve that openly supports a #StrongDollar = #StrongAmerica economic policy. For now, neither risk appears particularly probable.

 

CONCLUSIONS (CHINA):

 

  1. Chinese real GDP growth slowed in 1Q14, coming in roughly in line with our and the Street’s expectations. There were some bright spots in the higher-frequency data, but the general trend in Chinese economic growth remains negative.
  2. That being said, we are of the ilk to side with the now-consistent rhetoric of Chinese policymakers in anticipating that Chinese economic growth is at/near a cyclical bottom from a rate-of-change perspective.
  3. Specifically, either said policymakers have visibility into the Chinese economy that we lack as investors/analysts or they are effectively signing off on a plan to provide meaningful stimulus if growth continues to slow from here.
  4. Our favorite leading indicator for the slope of Chinese economic growth (i.e. the slope of the average YoY % change in rebar, iron ore and coal prices) is supportive of the former outcome; the dramatic easing of Chinese monetary conditions and sharp tightening of credit spreads in recent months is supportive of the latter outcome.
  5. We are currently doing the work to re-quantify the risks embedded in the Chinese financial sector in order to appropriately handicap the probability of a severe and prolonged crisis (conference call date TBD). To the extent we find those risks are priced in, consensus expectations for Chinese economic growth are depressed enough to warrant bargain hunting on the long side of CNY/CNH-denominated capital markets.  

 

US GROWTH CHARTS:

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 1

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 2

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 3

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 4

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 5

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 6

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 7

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 8

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 9

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - 10

 

CHINESE GROWTH CHARTS:

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - China GDP Growth

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - China Iron Ore  Rebar and Coal YoY

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - China 7 day Repo Rate Monthly Avg

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - China 5Y AAA Spread.tif

 

10 SCARY CHARTS ON US GROWTH; 5 NOT-SO-SCARY CHARTS ON CHINESE GROWTH - China GDP Expectations

 

RECENT CHINESE GROWTH DATA (in descending order of release date):

 

  • 1Q14 Real GDP: 7.4% YoY from 7.7% in 4Q13 vs. a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 7.3%
    • QoQ: 1.4% from 1.7% vs. a Bloomberg consensus estimate of 1.5%
  • MAR YTD Fixed-Assets Investment: 17.6% YoY from 17.9% in JAN-FEB
  • MAR Retail Sales: 12.2% YoY from 11.9% in JAN-FEB
  • MAR Industrial Production: 8.8% YoY from 8.6% in JAN-FEB
  • 1Q14 Business Climate Index: 128 from 124.3 in 4Q13
    • Large Enterprises: -0.6pts MoM to 132.5
    • Medium Enterprises: +3.5pts MoM to 129.4
    • Small Enterprises: +5.3pts MoM to 121
  • APR MNI Business Indictor: 51.1 from 53.4 in MAR
  • MAR Total Social Financing: 2.07T from 938.7B in FEB
    • New CNY Loans: 1.05T from 644.5B
    • Non-traditional Credit: 544.1B CNY from 17.2B
      • Ratio: 26.3% from 1.8%
        • SMAVG(3): 22.2% from 28.5%
    • The big acceleration in Chinese credit data in MAR would suggest that default risk is being mitigated, at the margins (via refinancing activity), given how poor the broad swath of Chinese growth data has been.
  • MAR M0 Money Supply: 5.2% YoY from 3.3% in FEB
  • MAR M2 Money Supply: 12.1% YoY from 13.3% in FEB
  • MAR FX Reserves: +$128.7B from +$31.9B in FEB
    • YoY: 15.8% from 15.4%
  • MAR Exports: -6.6% YoY from -18.1% in FEB
  • MAR Imports: -11.3% YoY from 10.1% in FEB
  • MAR Trade Balance: $7.7B from -$23B in FEB
    • YoY: +$8.7B from -$37.9B
  • MAR Non-Manufacturing PMI: 54.5 from 55 in FEB
    • New Orders: 50.8 from 51.4 in FEB
    • New Export Orders: 51.7 from 48.3 in FEB
    • Employment: 51.4 from 50.9 in FEB
  • MAR HSBC Services PMI: 51.9 from 51 in FEB
  • MAR HSBC Composite PMI: 49.3 from 49.8 in FEB
  • MAR Manufacturing PMI: 50.3 from 50.2 in FEB
    • Production: 52.7 from 52.6 in FEB
    • New Orders: 50.6 from 50.5 in FEB
    • New Export Orders: 50.1 from 48.2 in FEB
    • Finished Goods Inventories: 48.3 from 47.8 in FEB
    • Imports: 49.1 from 46.5 in FEB
    • Raw Materials Inventories: 47.8 from 47.4 in FEB
    • Employment: 48.3 from 48.0 in FEB
    • Business Expectations: 62.7 from 61.8 in FEB
  • MAR HSBC Manufacturing PMI: 48 from 48.5 in FEB
  • MAR CREIS Home Price Index (100 cities): 10% YoY from 10.8% in FEB
  • MAR E-House Home Price Index (288 cities): 8.1% YoY from 9.1% in FEB

 

Feel free to email us if you have any follow-up questions and we’ll be more than happy to walk you through our logic in greater detail. Have a great afternoon/evening,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team


Poll of the Day Recap: 55% Think China’s Growth In Decline

Takeaway: 55% said it’s IN-DECLINE; 45% said it’s BOTTOMING.

Poll of the Day Recap: 55% Think China’s Growth In Decline - CFP395049710 115538 copy1

 

China’s economy grew only 7.4% in the first quarter from a year earlier, according to the Chinese government. But though its growth has slowed to a six-quarter low, there was speculation that the actual number could have been closer to 7% after a recent string of other soft economic numbers.

 

In today’s poll, we wanted to know how you viewed this situation: Is Chinese growth in decline or is it bottoming?


At the time of this post, 55% said it’s IN-DECLINE; 45% said it’s BOTTOMING.

 

Of those that voted IN-DECLINE, one noted that “China will publish their 2015 full year GDP in 2 weeks time. #Forwardguidance.”

 

Another explained, “It doesn't really matter what the official data says. They forecast 7.5%, that's what they'll announce. Question is: is there real demand growth, will there be significant stimulus, what is the credit cycle doing?”

 

Conversely, over in the YES group, one responder pointed out, “Most countries would love 7.4% growth -- and this doesn't feel like a decline to me.” 

SUBSCRIBE TO HEDGEYE.

 


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