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Takeaway: At the time of this post, the majority went to 53% saying TIMBER! and 47% voting HICCUP.

Poll of the Day Recap: Timber! For the Stock Market? - 4

The “You-Know-What” hit the fan again today as continuing weakness in the tech sector spread to the broader market. The Nasdaq was clearly the biggest loser this week falling roughly 1% and on track to end the week basically 3% lower.

We are still banging the non-consensus bubble warning drum here at Hedgeye. But we wanted to hear your thoughts in today’s poll: Has the stock market correction arrived OR is this just a hiccup?

While the voting was virtually neck-and-neck in the morning, the tide began to turn more bearish as the market resumed its fall later in the day. At the time of this post, the majority went to 53% saying TIMBER! and 47% voting HICCUP.


While it was indeed a close poll, voters who think the stock market correction has arrived (TIMBER!) had the most to say:

  •  “I voted Timber because S&P 500 revenues are pretty flat year over year. Not much organic growth other than the Social Media bubble. The Fed continues to devalue the dollar and Russia and China are stocking up on gold. NASDAQ has only [gone] from about 1300 to over 4000 since 2009. Take a look at a chart of the 2000 internet bubble.”
  • “SPX breaks key support at open; PPI finally confirms (for g-men) some inflation; earnings this qtr will spread fear; perfect time of year for a welcome drop.”
  • “I call Timber, but with a long, slow ride to the bottom, wherever that may be. Other trees will hinder the fall. Market conservationists will tie ropes and chains to the tree and declare that no damage has been done. The loggers and the tree huggers will all claim Exceptionalism as their cause. Still, the real, genuine unavoidable truth is that ALL asset classes are mispriced (whether high or low) because there is no genuine market price for money, and no genuine market function for capital allocation. Maybe these things have never truly existed...but in today's planned (and grossly mismanaged) macro environment those fundamental capitalist functions are non-existent. Never fear, however; Mr. Market always has the last word...until the next round of madness.”
  • “The market is overdosing on Keynesian drugs prescribed by global central planners.  Japan didn't add more stimuli as beggars hoped for and Yellen and company have the market confused. The technicals are deteriorating.  Also, Kass went long the QQQ this AM. Anyone know if Gartman bought the dip yet?”

Those who believe this is a HICCUP admitted that time will tell; it depends on what the Fed does. And one voter strongly stated, “This is, without question, a hiccup.  Spring and summer acquisition activity in the tech sector will give the market confidence, at least through the summer.”

Another HICCUP voter was more cautious, “People will get optimistic, probably within the next week or two, though towards the end of the year, it might turn into a timber scenario.”

Ultimately, Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough put it this way: “Already an 8% ‘correction’ in the Nasdaq that basically no one on #OldWall called for. Give it time, she'll go lower - and consensus will capitulate.”