THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 9, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 37 points or 1.19% downside to 1830 and 0.81% upside to 1867.                                         

                                                                                      

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.29 from 2.29
  • VIX closed at 14.89 1 day percent change of -4.37%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates)

  • 7am: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 4 (prior -1.2%)
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Feb, est 0.5% (pr 0.6%, rev 0.7%)
  • Wholesale Sales m/m, Feb., est. 1% (pr -1.9%, rev -1.8%)
  • 10:30am: DOE Energy Inventories
  • 2pm: Fed issues March 18-19 FOMC minutes
  • 3:30pm: Fed’s Evans speaks in Washington
  • 7:30pm: Fed’s Tarullo speaks in Washington

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama speaks at Fort Hood memorial service, then attends DCCC, DSCC fundraisers in Houston
    • House Financial Services Cmte panel holds hearing on capital formation for growth cos, 10am
    • Senate Judiciary Cmte hears from Comcast exec. VP David Cohen on proposed $45b purchase of Time Warner Cable, 10am
    • House Armed Services Cmte holds hearing on natl defense priorities, 10am
    • House Ways and Means trade subcmte holds hearing on trade implications of U.S energy policy, LNG exports; 1:15pm
    • Budget (Senate Appropriations):
    • EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy testifies, 9:15am
    • Labor Sec. Thomas Perez, 10am
    • Clinton says no imminent decision on presidential run

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Toyota recalls more than 6m vehicles globally
  • Alcoa sees almost decade-long aluminum surplus ending on cuts
  • La Quinta raises $650m pricing IPO below marketed range
  • GM fined by U.S. safety agency for incomplete recall answers
  • Comcast to pitch its Time Warner deal as boost to innovation
  • Tougher leverage limits for U.S. banks approved by regulators
  • Tesla plans to find more financing for new Model S leasing unit
  • Weather Channel returns with less reality after DirecTV blackout
  • SAC Capital judge seeks profit info before approving plea
  • Greece said to plan opening book for 5-yr note sale tomorrow
  • Goldman Sachs considers closing Sigma X dark pool, WSJ reports
  • Goldman, Warburg in next round for Huarong stake: Reuters
  • Zayo explores IPO that values co. at $7b: Reuters
  • Detroit said near deal with some bond insurers: WSJ
  • Microsoft issues final security update for XP: Reuters

EARNINGS:

    • AngioDynamics (ANGO) 4:01 pm, $0.09
    • Apogee Enterprises (APOG) 4:30 pm, $0.29
    • Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) 4:15 pm, $1.60 - Preview
    • Cogeco Cable (CCA CN) Aft-Mkt, C$1.11 - Preview
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) 7:30 am, $0.76 - Preview
    • Dollarama (DOL CN) 7:30 am, C$1.10
    • MSC Industrial (MSM) 7:30 am, $0.85
    • PriceSmart (PSMT) 4:10 pm, $0.87

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Retreats From Month-High as Crude Supplies Gain; Brent Slips
  • World’s $8.9 Billion Banana Trade Threatened by Deadly Fungus
  • Texas Cotton Desert Boosts Cost for Clothing Makers: Commodities
  • Gold Trades Near Two-Week High as Investors Await Fed Minutes
  • Raw Sugar Rises as Brazil Seen Delaying Sales; Coffee Declines
  • Soybeans Climb to 10-Month High as U.S. Reserves Seen Declining
  • Grandfather’s Utility Threatened by Renewable Islands of Profits
  • Codelco Sees Copper Glut Imperiled by Project Lags: Commodities
  • OPEC Plans to Make Room for Extra Oil From Iran, Iraq, Libya
  • MORE: Iraq to Soon Reach Oil-Export Deal With Kurds, Luaibi Says
  • Copper Falls Amid Concern About Potential China Debt Defaults
  • Morgan Stanley Raises 2014 Brent Crude Forecast to $105/Barrel
  • Aluminum Surplus Seen Ending by Alcoa as Producers Pare Supplies
  • Renewables Replace Declining Nuclear, Coal in Northwest Europe

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more