THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 11, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 27 points or 0.70% downside to 1864 and 0.74% upside to 1891.                                         

                                                                                      

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10                                                                                                                                                                  

 

CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.41 from 2.41
  • VIX closed at 14.2 1 day percent change of 0.64%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 5:30am: Bank of England’s Carney, others speak in London
  • 7:30am: NFIB Small Business Optim, Feb., est. 94 (pr 94.1)
  • 7:45am: ICSC retail sales
  • 8:55am: Redbook weekly sales
  • 10am: JOLTs Job Openings, Jan. (prior 3.99m)
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, Jan., est. 0.4% (prior 0.3%)
  • 4:30pm: API weekly oil inventories

GOVERNMENT:

    • President Obama to attend Democratic National Cmte, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Cmte events in New York
    • Vice President Biden meets with Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos before attending inauguration of Chilean President Michelle Bachelet in Santiago
    • 12:25pm: OMB Director Burwell speaks at Economic Club of Washington on Obama’s proposed FY15 budget
    • 11am: John Brennan delivers remarks on 1st yr as CIA director
    • 4pm: Sec. Jeh Johnson before House Homeland Security panel on agency’s 2015 budget proposal
    • U.S. election wrap: Florida primary tomorrow

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Blackstone said to plan $5.5b Gates Global bid with TPG
  • Lloyds trader said to tip off BP on $500m currency deal
  • Ackman to show internal documents in Herbalife China webcast
  • SoftBank’s Son vows "price war" if T-Mobile deal approved
  • Russia holds firm on Crimea as Ukraine bolsters its defenses
  • Malaysia widens search for missing jet to Malacca Strait
  • Microsoft’s Titanfall game is being released
  • Bank of Japan sticks to easing plan as sales-tax bump looms
  • Sean Combs is said to bid $200m for MSG’s Fuse TV network
  • Jimmy Iovine’s Beats Music is said to raise up to $100m
  • House panel to probe GM recall of vehicles on ignition switches
  • Repo fire-sale proposal said within reach
  • Insurance cos. attempt to escape U.S. bank capital requirements
  • Honda makes Acura stand-alone division to boost luxury lineup
  • Energy Future said to hold last-minute talks to ease bankruptcy
  • Blackstone buys majority stake in Accuvant for $150m: WSJ
  • Wells Fargo reverses ban on staff making P2P loans, FT reports
  • Apple said to seek exclusive iTunes releases: L.A. Times

AM EARNS:

    • American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) 8am, $0.26 - Preview
    • Arcos Dorados Holdings (ARCO) 8am, $0.16
    • Dick’s Sporting Goods (DKS) 7:30am, $1.11 - Preview
    • John Wiley & Sons (JW/A) 8am, $0.85
    • Springleaf Holdings (LEAF) 7:30am, $0.45
    • Synta Pharmaceuticals (SNTA) 6:45am, ($0.30)
    • Transcontinental (TCL/A CN) 10:30am, $0.34

PM EARNS:

    • Caesars Entertainment (CZR) 4pm, ($1.52)
    • Diamond Foods (DMND) 4:01pm, $0.08
    • Furiex Pharmaceuticals (FURX) 4:05pm, ($1.06)
    • Inter Parfums (IPAR) 4:05pm, ($0.17)
    • NCI Building Systems (NCS) 4:01pm, ($0.01)
    • VeriFone Systems (PAY) 4:01pm, $0.27

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Iron Ore Bear Market Deepens Amid China Credit, Surplus Concerns
  • WTI Trades Near 3-Week Low as Supplies Seen Rising; Brent Stable
  • Nickel Pioneer Shut Out as China Cuts Smokestacks: Commodities
  • Copper Rebounds as Barclays Says Worst Selling May Have Passed
  • Corn Extends Slump to One-Week Low as USDA Signals Ample Supply
  • Gold Climbs Toward Four-Month High as Ukraine Spurs Haven Demand
  • Indonesian Exchange Sets Daily Suggested Opening Bid for Tin
  • Corn Extending Rally With Wheat for CBH on Ukraine Supply Risk
  • Rebar Rises After Biggest Three-Day Decline Since October 2011
  • Japan’s Giant Tsunami Wall Fails to Stop Atomic Power Fears
  • Palm Oil Drops as Prices at 18-Month High Seen Cutting Demand
  • Ukraine Crisis Endangers Exxon’s Black Sea Gas Drilling: Energy
  • Record Bullish Oil Bets May Deepen Any Slump: Chart of the Day
  • Tin Shipment Seized by Indonesian Navy En Route to Singapore

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Neurofinance: The Psychology Behind When To Sell A Bull Market

"Most momentum investors stay invested too long, under-reacting and holding tight after truly bad news finally arrives to break the trend," writes MarketPsych's Richard Peterson.

read more

Energy Stocks: Time to Buy the Dip? | $XLE

What the heck is happening in the Energy sector (XLE)? Energy stocks have trailed the S&P 500 by a whopping 15% in 2017. Before you buy the dip, here's what you need to know.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Hard-Headed Bears

How's this for "hard data"? So far, 107 of 497 S&P 500 companies have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 4.4% and 13.2% respectively.

read more

Premium insight

McCullough [Uncensored]: When People Say ‘Everyone is Bullish, That’s Bulls@#t’

“You wonder why the performance of the hedge fund indices is so horrendous,” says Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough, “they’re all doing the same thing, after the market moves. You shouldn’t be paid for that.”

read more

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT Replay | Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Tune in to this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more