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Smith Travel Research (STR) materially altered its forecast for 2010 US RevPAR.   STR now forecasts that RevPAR will decline 3.7% next year.  Research Edge has been predicting negative 2010 RevPAR since we wrote "A GIRAFFE FROM HEAD TO TAIL" on January 29th, 2009.  That's quite a while ago. 

It's not that STR hasn't been vocal on the US lodging market; one of STR's recent updates (dated 5/3/2009), projected a 1.5% increase in 2010.  The difference in these projections is significant, especially given the brief span of time between the respective reports being published.   The sell side is still projecting flat-to-slightly up RevPAR in 2010. We doubt the industry has many cost levers left to pull.  Estimates need to come down. 

The negative catalysts we discussed in our 06/10/09 post, "JOIN THE CLUB" are still very much in play so we are not yet certain down 3.7% is enough.  Although with 2009 progressing the way it has (see below) the comp continues to get easier.

 STR FINALLY SEES RED - revpar july