THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 23, 2014


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 28 points or 0.91% downside to 1828 and 0.60% upside to 1856.                     

SECTOR PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:

 

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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 2.45 from 2.47
  • VIX closed at 12.84 1 day percent change of -0.23%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Chicago Fed Nat Act. Index, Dec., est. 0.9 (pr 0.6)
  • 8:30am: Init Jobless Claims, Jan. 18, est. 330k (pr 326k)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI Preliminary, Jan., est. 55 (pr 54.4)
  • 9am: FHFA House Price Index m/m, Nov., est. 0.4% (pr 0.5%)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 19 (prior -31.0)
  • 10am: Existing Home Sales, Dec., est. 4.93m (prior 4.9m)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 10:am: Leading Index, Dec., est. 0.2% (prior 0.8%)
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manuf, Jan., est. 2 (prior -3)

GOVERNMENT:

    • FCC set to begin first major airwaves auction since 2008
    • 8:30am: CSIS holds conference on U.S-Australia relations, incl Australian Minister for Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, White House Council of Economic Advisors Chairman Jason Furman
    • 10am: U.S. Conference of Mayors holds annual meetings; speakers incl Cordray; HHS Sec. Kathleen Sebelius; Education Sec. Arne Duncan
    • 12:30pm: NASA holds teleconference on agency’s Earth science activities planned for 2014
    • 12:45pm: Media briefing by Press Sec. Jay Carney
    • Postponed: SEC open meeting on 2014 budget for Public Company Accounting Oversight Board
    • Privacy Oversight Board says NSA program illegal: N.Y. Times

WHAT TO WATCH:

  • Lenovo to acquire IBM’s server unit for $2.3b in cash, stock
  • EBay says Icahn proposes PayPal spinoff after taking stake
  • Berkshire said to face start of U.S. systemic-risk scrutiny
  • China manufacturing index trails estimates as orders cool
  • Toyota beats GM, VW in 2013 car sales, sees 3% growth this year
  • Microsoft will allow foreign customers to store data overseas
  • Credit Suisse sued by China Green chief over alleged negligence
  • Haniel, Elliott close to agreement over Celesio stake: Boersen
  • Target’s virus linked to 23-year-old southern Russian: WSJ
  • Swiss raise bank capital buffer to rein in real estate market
  • Banks aid U.S. forex probe to fulfill duty in Libor settlements
  • Most JPM employees didn’t get raise due to legal bills: Reuters
  • Iceland traps hedge funds in refusal to discuss bank claims
  • Euro-area January factory output expands more than forecast

AM EARNS:

    • Alaska Air Group (ALK) 6:01am, $1.07
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) 6:15am, $0.78 - Preview
    • Avnet (AVT) 8am, $1.11
    • BankUnited (BKU) 7:30am, $0.46
    • Baxter International (BAX) 7am, $1.25  - Preview
    • CapitalSource (CSE) 9am, $0.17
    • Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8am, $0.08
    • Fairchild Semiconductor Intern (FCS) 7:30am, $0.09
    • Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB) 6:30am, $0.42
    • Janus Capital Group (JNS) 7am, $0.19
    • Johnson Controls (JCI) 7am, $0.70
    • KeyCorp (KEY) 6:14am, $0.25
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:25am, $2.11 - Preview
    • McDonald’s (MCD) 7:58am, $1.39  - Preview
    • MGIC Investment (MTG) 7am, ($0.02)  - Preview
    • National Penn Bancshares (NPBC) 6:31am, $0.17
    • Popular (BPOP) 8am, $0.65
    • Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) 6:35am, $0.29
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $2.49
    • United Continental Holdings In (UAL) 7:30am, $0.71

PM EARNS:

    • Altera (ALTR) 4:15pm, $0.31
    • Celanese (CE) 4:30pm, $1.01
    • Compuware (CPWR) 4:05pm, $0.14
    • Cubist Pharmaceuticals (CBST) 4pm, break-even - Preview
    • Discover Financial Services (DFS) 4:05pm, $1.19
    • E*Trade Financial (ETFC) 4:05pm, $0.19
    • Federated Investors (FII) 4:02pm, $0.37
    • Hexcel (HXL) 4:06pm, $0.46
    • Informatica (INFA) 4:05pm, $0.48
    • International Game Tech (IGT) 4:15pm, $0.31  - Preview
    • Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) 4:05pm, $4.02
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05pm, $0.36 - Preview
    • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 4:15pm, $0.80
    • Leggett & Platt (LEG) 4:05pm, $0.33
    • Maxim Integrated Products (MXIM) 4pm, $0.40
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 4:01pm, $0.69 - Preview
    • ResMed (RMD) 4:05pm, $0.64
    • Starbucks (SBUX) 4:03pm, $0.69 - Preview
    • Synaptics (SYNA) 4:05pm, $0.90

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Crude Trades Near Three-Week High Before U.S. Inventory Data
  • Rubber Output in Thailand Seen Dropping as Growers Join Protest
  • Australia Drought Spurs Beef-Sales Boom on Herd Cut: Commodities
  • Copper Touches One-Week Low as Manufacturing Contracts in China
  • Gold Rises From Two-Week Low as Investors Weigh Demand, Tapering
  • Wheat Climbs on U.S. Freeze Concern and Signs of Import Demand
  • Coffee Rebounds as Vietnam Sales Slow Before Tet; Cocoa Advances
  • Platinum Strike Paralyzes Mines as Intimidation Claims Arise
  • China Rebar Has Biggest Gain in Three Months on Restocking Hopes
  • Iran’s Rouhani Invites Oil Companies to Invest as Sanctions End
  • Arctic Air Blankets Northern U.S. as Texas Set to Receive Snow
  • Alaska Coastal Oil Drilling Challenge Revived by U.S. Court
  • Traders Buying Dutch Weaken U.K. Gas Market: Chart of the Day
  • Platinum Tops Gold by Most Since ’11 on Strike: Chart of the Day

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CURRENCIES

 

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GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

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EUROPEAN MARKETS

 

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ASIAN MARKETS

 

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MIDDLE EAST

 

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The Hedgeye Macro Team