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All of Us

This note was originally published at 8am on December 05, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“There is no one left, none but all of us.”

-S.S. McClure

 

So I was in my homeland (Canada) yesterday meeting with some free-market capitalists and couldn’t help but think of what it felt like when I came to this country in the early 1990s  - liberating.

 

Other than the Chris Farley looking mayor dude who did crack, Toronto, Ontario seemed void of what dominates our market lives in today’s USA. There’s no “taper-talk.” There are no professional politicians and TV pundits gorging on the uninformed.

 

As I boarded the plane back to beautiful Newark, New Jersey, I sighed. Then I cracked open a new book, and felt better again. In the preface to Doris Kearns Goodwin’s The Bully PulpitTheodore Roosevelt, William Howard Taft, and The Golden Age of Journalism, she reminds us of what objective research and reporting used to be. I smiled again. This is our opportunity.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

As S.S. McClure well understood, the vitality of democracy depends on popular knowledge of complex questions” (The Bully Pulpit, pg XIV); not using complexity, policy, and demagoguery, as a political Trojan horse to obfuscate the truth.

 

Albeit I’m just a man with my team in a room, that’s my solemn commitment to you – providing you an objective research view of the truth. To be clear, this is not a position in life I always longed for – it’s simply the position I find myself in.

 

Even though he went to Harvard, for a long-time I’ve respected Teddy Roosevelt via a paper one of my freshman guidance counselors (who I was older than at the time!) put on my desk when I first got to Yale – The Strenuous Life. If you ever feel like you’ve lost your moral compass, re-read that – and read it again. It does the soul good.

 

Moving along…

 

Buying-the-damn-bubble #BTDB may not be chicken soup for your soul, but it has certainly paid the bills in 2013. From a behavioral market practitioner’s perspective, I have developed an affinity for doing precisely the opposite of how I think this ultimately ends. Weird, but it works.

 

To review, the multi-disciplinary triad of our Global Macro Research Process, there are 3 big parts:

  1. History
  2. Math
  3. Behavioral Psych

History provides us context (economic/market patterns, mean reversion risk, etc.); math (fractal dimensions and risk ranges) signals timing; and behavioral, well, that’s a learning process.

 

How else would you define what it is that you do? Other than Embracing Uncertainty and constantly re-evaluating your position relative to the information surprise (price, volume, volatility) of the day, is there an alternative to mental flexibility? There isn’t for me. I’m not smarter than the market. And it took me a good long while to accept that.

 

In terms of our current strategy, quite simply put in our Q413 Macro Theme of #GetActive, it’s to do just that. Unaccountable and un-elected @FederalReserve policy making means we need to engage in unconventional market strategies.

 

In practice, in our Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model, what does that mean?

  1. At the US stock market highs we moved to 58% Cash (last Friday)
  2. After a 4-day US stock market correction we moved back to 42% Cash

Don’t lose the message of mental flexibility in the absolute numbers. If you want to be in 90% cash or 10% cash makes no difference to the point I am trying to make. It’s how you move on the margin that counts. I call it Fading Beta.

 

Looking at it from a different perspective (different Hedgeye product  - #RealTimeAlerts):

  1. Last Friday (on green) we moved to 5 LONGS, 5 SHORTS
  2. Into yesterday’s close (on red) we moved to 11 LONGS, and 3 SHORTS

Again, the point here is about the process. My process is far from perfect. But at least I can explain, evaluate, and evolve it. Doing that in an open network of client feedback has made me a more responsible and accountable investor.

 

So why can’t we do that running America? Wasn’t the whole marketing pitch “Yes We Can”? Or, somewhere along the way towards truth, did we put political reputations and excuse making ahead of your country’s learning process?

 

How do you ever learn if you’re constantly on a quest to prove that you’re never wrong? If there’s one question I’d ask one of the most conflicted and compromised outcrops of Big US Government Intervention (the power of the Fed), that would be it.

 

And that’s all I have to say about that. It’s time to grind and get on with my day. It’s time for you to get on with yours. Thanks again for taking the time to read what I have to say. Teddy wrote it much more eloquently, but you’ll get the point:

 

“… our country calls not for the life of ease but for the life of strenuous endeavor. The twentieth century looms before us big with the fate of many nations. If we stand idly by, if we seek merely swollen, slothful ease and ignoble peace, if we shrink from the hard contests where men must win at hazard of their lives and at the risk of all they hold dear, then the bolder and stronger peoples will pass us by, and will win for themselves the domination of the world. Let us therefore boldly face the life of strife, resolute to do our duty well and manfully; resolute to uphold righteousness by deed and by word; resolute to be both honest and brave, to serve high ideals, yet to use practical methods. Above all, let us shrink from no strife, moral or physical, within or without the nation, provided we are certain that the strife is justified, for it is only through strife, through hard and dangerous endeavor, that we shall ultimately win the goal of true national greatness.”

 

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges (see our Daily Trading Range product for all 12):

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.76-2.85%

SPX 1788-1811

DAX 9128-9411

USD 80.45-80.91

Pound 1.62-1.64

Gold 1217-1259

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

All of Us - Macro Process Triangles

 

All of Us - Virtual Portfolio


JAPAN STRATEGY UPDATE: ALL ABOARD!

Takeaway: We were wrong in calling for investors to tactically take profits Abenomics Trade on 11/27. Carry [trade] on…

On NOV 27, we published a note titled, “THREE COMPELLING REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE PROFITS IN THE ABENOMICS TRADE NOW” in which we called for a 3-6M correction in the Abenomics Trade (i.e. short JPY/long Japanese equities); while we don’t want to get caught up in overreacting to today’s FOMC decision to commence tapering, that is no longer a view we have any conviction in.

 

In the note specifically, we analyzed three catalysts in support of that now defunct thesis:

 

  1. The Fed will likely dominate headlines with surprising levels of dovish monetary policy amid a 3-6M monetary and fiscal policy vacuum in Japan.
  2. Sentiment towards Japanese equities amongst foreign speculators has reached euphoric levels.
  3. Speculators have recently adopted an overwhelmingly bearish position on the yen. Historically, the USD/JPY cross has faded hard from such aggressive swings in the net length of the futures and options market. Moreover, what’s bullish for the yen has been almost perfectly bearish for Japanese stocks.

 

Clearly, catalyst #1 – which was easily the most important of the three – has now been voided. As such, we are no longer as concerned as we were about the lopsided nature of consensus positioning – which has actually gotten worse (i.e. even more net short) since that note was published.

 

In the spirit of keeping score (timing is the most important factor in any investment thesis we present to subscribers), the USD/JPY cross has appreciated a solid +2.1% since then, while the Nikkei 225 Index has appreciated +0.9% since then (not inclusive of what is likely to be a huge melt-up overnight).

 

Thankfully we weren’t brash enough ignore the existing quantitative signals by making a call to buy the yen or short the Nikkei. Wrong is wrong, however. Now it’s time to move on and trade the market that we’re being presented with today.  

 

As such, while you’re likely to see a near-term correction in the USD/JPY cross as event-driven funds take profits, we now expect what we’ve been expecting since early in the fourth quarter of 2012: the USD/JPY cross is on its way to 125 (and counting) over the intermediate-to-long term.

 

Giddy-up – Kuroda’s just getting started (in recent statements, he’s actually been setting the table to incrementally ease monetary policy by mid-Spring of 2014). Meanwhile, it appears (for now at least) that the central planning law firm of Bernanke, Yellen, Dudley and Bullard LLP is running out of gas. That’s very bearish for the JPY in the context of the intermediate-to-longer-term monetary policy outlook in Japan.

 

Enjoy the rest of your evenings,

 

DD

 

Darius Dale

Associate: Macro Team

 

JAPAN STRATEGY UPDATE: ALL ABOARD! - USDJPY


Fed Tapers, Pigs Fly

Takeaway: Buy-the-Damn-Bubble #BTDB anyone?

Nope. I did not see this taper coming. Caught me by total surprise.  

 

It was the right move by the Fed (just happened to be 3 months too late). It’s funny, I’ve never been more wrong on a macro event, and more right being long the market (we had 8 LONGS on in Real-Time Alerts, 1 SHORT) at the same time.

 

It’s called being right for the wrong reasons.

 

Fed Tapers, Pigs Fly - ben

 

Joy.

 

The Fed is one big Gong Show. No two ways about it. None of this central planning stuff makes any sense. Accept that and trade your way out of whatever you need to.

 

As Andrew Huszar (He’s the former Fed MBS guy I interviewed the other day on HedgeyeTV and author of WSJ op-ed “Confessions of a Quantitative Easer”) tweeted, “The December taper is clearly a legacy move for Bernanke. Don't read more near term moves into it. Yellen was QE3's biggest advocate.”

 

Being flexible when the macro game changes is more critical than ever. Since I'm not as smart as most pundits, I need to (and do) change my mind faster than the consensus herd.

 

On a related note, can you say all-time high? As we’re fond of saying here at Hedgeye, all-time is a long time. 1811 on the S&P 500? Buy-the-Damn-Bubble #BTDB anyone? .

 

There are great short selling opportunities now in bonds (or stocks that are like bonds - hint: MLPs…check out our Hedgeye Energy Ace Kevin Kaiser for some insight on that mess). Fed tapering is bad for bonds -we will cut the asset allocation to that Bernanke Bubble back to 0%.

 

The volatility in the Fed's decision making as of late should perpetuate more market volatility. The VIX is making another higher-low; don’t get stuffed chasing the highs. No way I buy Gold on this.

 

Bernanke remains focused on The Lagging Economic Indicator (unemployment rate); Basically Bernanke is recapping all the Q313 data that he missed - i.e. he should have tapered in September.

 

Meanwhile, the Fed is increasing its growth forecasts just as Hedgeye is cutting ours; and the Fed is cutting its inflation forecasts just as Hedgeye is raising ours.

 

Bottom line? The entire bubble is going squirrel. An epic end, to an epic year. 


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FDX: Express Margin Evidence

Summary

 

FedEx may have missed consensus for the quarter, but from what we can see, it was mostly due to the impact of the late Thanksgiving holiday on FedEx Ground’s margin.  Estimating the impact of the early Thanksgiving holiday was particularly difficult going in, as we had noted (Metrics Changing?).  The slight raise in guidance suggests that management expects holiday volume to merely shift to FY 3Q.  The Express margin showed good headline gains and is the real focus for many investors.  We will wait for the detail and disclosure in the 10-Q (likely tomorrow afternoon) for a fuller analysis.

 

 

A Few Highlights

 

Express Margin:  The Express segment margin showed solid (+1.4 percentage points YoY) improvement, driven presumably by fuel, headcount reductions and lower overhead costs.  FedEx Express also showed a 16 basis point improvement in its ex-fuel Margin YoY, despite the new USPS contract, holiday shift and other potential headwinds.   In our view, it’s the Express segment margin expansion that counts and it reasonably promising in the release. 

 

Intercompany Cost Reallocation:   The reallocation of intercompany expenses remains a driver of the YoY improvement of the Express margin.  Last quarter, overhead declined YoY, which was not the case this quarter.  That raises some questions around cost reshuffling vs. cost reductions, but the effect does not appear large enough to be a game changer.

 

Trade Down Easing?:  This quote from the press release was interesting to us: “Within the IP category, average daily volume for the lower-yielding distribution services declined while IP average daily volume, excluding these distribution services, increased 1%. FedEx International Economy® average daily volume grew 10%.”  The phrase "trade down" was not even in a conference call question, at least that we heard.

 

Guidance Change:  The guidance move was small, but in the right direction.  There was no particular reason to look for a large guidance change in this quarter.  The bump appeared geared toward reassuring investors about the FedEx Ground holiday timing issue.

 


Sticking With What Is Working

 

We have 'liked' FDX shares since our November 2012 Black Book ("When Will Then Be Now? Soon"), presenting FDX (and Deutsche Post) as a top long idea.  Our thesis centered on the potential for the Express division to be made significantly more profitable.  At the time, FedEx Express was 'free' in our valuation, presenting an attractive risk/reward. After a near 60% rally in FDX shares since then, we still think FedEx Express has some additional value to be recognized by the market.  Importantly, we now have some evidence that they are making progress - albeit slow.  We will also wait for better detail in the 10-Q tomorrow, as we were surprised by some of the incremental disclosures last quarter.


Fragile Markets

This note was originally published December 12, 2013 at 07:45 in Morning Newsletter

“I’d rather be dumb and antifragile than extremely smart and fragile” Nassim Taleb

The big picture

The hyperbole of that quote is that Taleb thinks he’s extremely smart. I’m definitely dumber than he is. So I guess he’d agree that I should never hire him to do what I can do better myself – manage real-time market risk.

 

It’s a great job for a dumb hockey player.

Macro grind

The reason why I thought of Taleb this morning is that I was thinking about volatility. To his credit, he was one of the first to write about risk managing volatility from a market practitioner’s perspective. That doesn’t mean I agree with everything he wrote.

 

In terms of how we measure market entropy in real-time (multi-factor, multi-duration), yesterday was a one of the few critically bearish signal days for the US stock market.

 

To boil that down to 3 basic factors in our model (Price, Volume, and Volatility):

 

1. PRICE – SP500 A) failed to make a higher-high versus the 1808 all-time closing high and B) broke 1785 TRADE support

2. VOLUME – was +13% versus my immediate-term TRADE duration average (1st mini-volume spike on a down price move)

3. VOLATILITY – front-month VIX broke out above @Hedgeye intermediate-term TREND resistance of 14.91

 

This has never happened before (because the SP500 has never been at this all-time closing high before). But historically, countries, currencies, companies (anything with a ticker) do this frequently. And when they do, I respect Mr. Macro Market’s signal.

 

What is a bearish immediate-term signal @Hedgeye?

 

1. PRICE = down

2. VOLUME = up

3. VOLATILITY = up

 

Conversely,

 

1. PRICE = up

2. VOLUME = up

3. VOLATILITY = down

 

… is a bullish immediate-term signal @Hedgeye (especially when it’s happening within a bullish intermediate-term TREND).

 

Sure, I have been buying-the-damn-bubble #BTDB pretty much all year – but while I covered a couple of oversold shorts like CAT yesterday, I didn’t buyem on the long side. An intermediate-term TREND breakout in volatility is the #1 reason for that.

 

Are there tangible risk factors that could perpetuate and intermediate-term TREND move in US Equity Volatility back towards 20 on the VIX? Big time. Here are some behavioral ones that I discussed with clients in NYC yesterday:

 

1. VIX has been making a series of higher-lows since AUG as the Fed started to confuse with Taper-on/Taper-off in SEP

2. The average “net long” positioning of the hedge fund community is testing its all-time high zone of +60% again

3. The II Bull/Bear Spread just blew out to fresh 5 year highs of +4390 basis points to the BULL side

 

That last point is one of the more fascinating migrations I have seen in my career. To put a 44% spread between bulls and bears in context, that II Bull/Bear Spread was only +1710 basis points wide in the 1st week of September 2013.

 

Early September – that’s when people may have claimed to be “bullish” but they certainly weren’t positioned Bullish Enough. All this market needed to scare the hell out of the pretend bulls was a VIX rip to 17 in late August.

 

If the VIX goes to 17-18 tomorrow, people who are buying-the-damn-bubble #BTDB will get killed. So, if you have been in the habit of doing the buy on red, sell on green #GetActive thing, you want to be more careful buying now than you were last week.

 

How about fundamental research factors that could turn bearish in the next 1-3 months?

 

1. US Dollar being devalued and debauched (no-taper) towards its YTD lows

2. US GDP #GrowthSlowing from its cycle high of +3.6%

3. Down Dollar = Up Yen = Down Nikkei (another thing people didn’t enjoy in late AUG)

 

Rather than making up my own academic sounding word like antifragile, I’ll call managing real-time market risk this way what it is – being mentally flexible. If you can Embrace Uncertainty every market day, you might feel less dumb every once in a while too.

  • CASH: 58
  • US EQUITIES: 6
  • INTL EQUITIES: 6
  • COMMODITIES: 0
  • FIXED INCOME: 8
  • INTL CURRENCIES: 22

Our levels

Our immediate-term Global Macro Risk Ranges are now:

 

UST 10yr yield 2.76-2.91%

SPX 1779-1815

VIX 14.31-15.67

USD 79.67-80.38

Pound 1.62-1.64

Gold 1216-1260

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Fragile Markets - Chart of the Day


Putin’s Silver Spoon

Yesterday Russian President Vladimir Putin announced an agreement to loan the Ukraine $15 Billion and reduce the cost of natural gas exports by one-third. Will this quell the weeks of protests against Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych’s government?

 

While publically there was no talk of the Ukraine joining Putin’s custom union (for trade) – which already includes Kazakhstan and Belarus and is a contentious issue for the “Western” protesters – make no mistake that with this agreement Russia has reconfirmed its dominance over the Ukraine, and with it won a key geopolitical victory. For the Ukraine, it spells years, if not decades, before real reform (political and economic) may be realized.

 

Our Position: despite heavy foot power (protests) against President Yanukovych over the last four weeks, we do not expect dissent to topple government leadership that is orientated to the East (Russia). This view is built on several factors, including the unwillingness of the EU to fully commit to bringing the Ukraine into the EU, or conversely meet the sway of Putin to fold the Ukraine under its geographic empire. What Russia can provide in funds (both directly and through gas subsidies) we don’t foresee the EU attempting to match, and this balance of payments should reinforce existing strong levels of political corruption (beyond just the President), supported by a sizable proportion of the populous that identifies with the East. Further, unlike during the Orange Revolution, there is no clear organized opposition (merely disparate dissenters), all of which suggests to us that while protests may continue, there’s low probability that Yanukovych’s rule is toppled (especially following the deal with Russia) and a high probability that the Ukraine maintains its alliance with the Kremlin for the foreseeable future.

 

Below we note historical background, critical developments, and analysis aided by sources in the region to contextualize the protests:

  • Protests Beyond Just A Trade Agreement. While Yanukovych’s decision last month (21 NOV) to reject a trade deal with the EU (that had been in the works for a number of years) sparked the largest protest since the Orange Revolution in 2004, the dissent is rooted in opposition to years of crony capitalism, centered around a small group of oligarchs and government heads profiting from the state at the hands of the population.
  • The Orange Revolution Failed. The 2004 Orange Revolution ushered in great hope for the ideals of the West: democracy and reform in the spirit of the EU institution, but the Revolution failed.  Yulia Tymoshenko, with her camera-friendly crown of blond locks, and Viktor Yushchenko, with his discolored and uneven face after being poisoned by the opposition in 2004, were strong faces and voices of the Orange Revolution. The protests led to the defeat of Yanukovych in a forced second run-off election that ushered in Yushchenko as President and Tymoshenko as his Prime Minister in early 2005. While their leadership brought great “hope” that the country could have its Berlin Wall or Solidarity moment, their stars faded quickly (along with hope of real reform) under the weight of a corrupt state.  
  • Tables Turned. By 2010, Yanukovych won back the Presidency. By this time, Tymoshenko was surrounded by controversy and suspicion over gas contracts that she arranged with Russia in 2009: allegedly she agreed to inflated gas prices (which hurt the nation and led to shutdowns) in return for political favors and personal profit. Even Yushchenko testified against her in 2011 and Yanukovych sentenced her to a 7 year term in 2011 – a position the EU decries as “unjust” without substantiating with refuting evidence. Yanukovych’s rule since his reelection has been marked by the further consolidation of power and wealth, going so far as to take out certain leading businessmen (and oligarchs), redistributing assets and leadership positions to an inner circle of family members and a close cadre of “extended” family.
  • Economic Plight. The economy has unraveled under Yanukovych. GDP has gone from its last high of +5% at the end of 2011 to -1.3% as of Q3 2013. Pressing is an underfunded government (deficit around -8.5% of GDP) with plunging foreign reserves.  The country is estimated to have $17 Billion of debt payments due in the next two years, hence the importance of a bridge loan from Russia/EU. The government’s mismanagement of the economy has also included a lack of infrastructure spending and investment, equating to the erosion of living standards, while chasing away foreign investment on fears of sovereign default.   
  • No Opposition Leadership over Divided Kiev. Recent demonstrations illustrate that unlike the Orange Revolution, there’s no united leadership in the opposition parties. The contenders are made up of: Arseny Yatseniuk (leads the party formerly headed by Tymoshenko), Vitaly Klitschko (a boxing champion that heads the Udar “punch” party), and Oleh Tyagnibok (a right-wing nationalist).  All of them claim to have not seen the protests coming.
  • Ukraine and Kiev Remain Divided. A country with a population of 46 million, the western half of the country aligns itself politically with the West (Europe) and has the highest concentration of native Ukrainian speakers, whereas the eastern half aligns itself with the East (Russia) and primarily speaks Russian as a first language.  Kiev, the capital and largest city, is located centrally to the north, and is itself a very divided city both politically and linguistically. The recent demonstrations suggest that protesters have numbered anywhere between 100K to 600K, but the city remains divided. Reports suggest the protests have a grass roots organization “feel” that lack strong polarizing leadership and have been mostly met by non violence from the government/police, with no recorded deaths.  While the protests have been taking place, as recently as December 3rd, Yanukovych’s government survived a no-confidence vote.
  • Russian Interests. Russia is looking out for its national security interests first and foremost and using its stranglehold on natural gas as a bargaining chip. If Ukraine is under the influence of the EU, Russia is vulnerable to the south. Ukraine also represents an important natural gas transit country for flows to Europe, and a Ukraine under Russian influence helps to solidify Putin’s desires for a trading union. Given that Putin has done nothing to diversify his own economy in the last 12 years, he’s left with few options to exert his political clout beyond straight arming former Soviet satellite countries into his sphere of influence.
  • EU Interests. For the EU, the Ukraine is of less importance from a security perspective, unless it is looking to invade Russia (unlikely). Like Turkey, the Ukraine is geographically at the fringe of Europe. Given the experiences of the Eurozone ‘crisis’ and tail of slow growth alongside political indecision (there are now 28 separate parliaments and 18 Eurozone countries), we do not envisage the EU yearning to add a historically highly corrupt government to its roster.  
  • Russia Terms. To plug the country’s balance of payments deficit (for an estimated 18-24 months) Ukraine will issue $15 billion of Eurobonds which Russia will purchase from its National Wellbeing Fund containing $88.1 billion – the first tranche of $3 billion is expected as soon as year-end. In addition, the discount given to the Ukraine on natural gas, from current prices of around $400 per thousand cubic meters (tcm) to $268.50 tcm, is worth another $3 billion in subsidy. While Yanukovych did not sign off on entering Putin’s custom union (which Kazakhstan and Belarus have joined and which reeks of attempts to get the old Soviet gang back together), expect that this deal didn’t come without terms. Besides the national security piece that Russia receives, our guess is Putin will run the Ukraine’s PR campaign – he will decide if and when the Ukraine should enter his custom’s union.

Conclusion - Tipping East. The Ukraine remains a state uncomfortable with addressing its own sovereignty, preferring to be aligned. In our analysis, the Kremlin remains Yanukovych’s preferable partner over the EU given 1) Putin’s ability to quickly write a check (to cover the government’s liabilities), 2) his reelection aspirations for 2015 and ability to “win” cheaper, uninterrupted heat for the nation, 3) the cultural affinity to the East, including a significant percentage of the population that identifies with Russian rule and to some extent nostalgically yearns for a return to the Soviet days, 4) the likely harsher terms the EU and international organization could offer in exchange for loan packages, and 5) the lukewarm reception of the EU to fold the Ukraine into the EU.

 

If we look to the market for its risk assessment, as expected following yesterday’s deal Ukrainian CDS and sovereign credit yields dropped in a hurry. What’s interesting, however, comes from the second chart below that shows Ukraine’s 5YR Sovereign CDS pulled back on a historical basis (to its maximum based on Bloomberg data). Here it’s clear that while risk was being priced up into the event (1st chart), the absolute level is a moon shot from all-time highs in March 2009, a period when Western European nations had to negotiate with Russia over gas shut-down to their countries that was being pumped through the Ukraine. What this signals to us is that the EU community will only get its hands dirty in the interests of Ukraine when it stands to clearly and personally receive benefit. The “failures” of these protests for change and the muted response from the EU suggest to us that the Ukraine is far from what could be tipping point levels. Russia will remain its puppet master.

 

Putin’s Silver Spoon - 1. ukraine

 

Putin’s Silver Spoon - 2. ukraine

 

Matthew Hedrick

Associate


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