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INITIAL CLAIMS: HOLIDAYS AND HURRICANES MAKE FOR DIFFICULT ANALYSIS

Takeaway: Our labor market compass is currently impaired due to multiple distortions in our preferred labor market data series.

The Tea Leaves Are Tough To Read At the Moment

The initial jobless claims data this morning was good from a reported standpoint. Normally we like to see through the reported SA numbers by looking at the Y/Y trend in NSA claims, but unfortunately the distortions caused by Hurricane Sandy last year are reducing our precision in doing so. Our best estimate is that the Y/Y trend is down -7.7%, which is a modest deceleration from our estimate of -8.9% improvement in the prior week, but still in line with the longer-term trend of accelerating improvement. The SA data is likely the more informative measure here, in spite of the known distortions. The data showed a significant W/W improvement, but here again that number was likely clouded by the Veteran's Day holiday last week, which has distorted the data series in the past. Regrettably, it's hard to say with any good certainty whether the labor market inflected positively or negatively last week, though the SA numbers and our interpolated (Sandy-adjusted) NSA numbers suggest the trend of improvement that's been in place largely remained in place. The Sandy distortion should persist for another 2-3 weeks.

 

The Nuts & Bolts

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 16k to 323k from 339k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 5k to 344k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 21k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -6.75k WoW to 338.25k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -15.3% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -12.9%

 

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Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread rose 13 basis points WoW to 252 bps. 4Q13TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 232 bps, which is lower by 2 bps relative to 3Q13.

 

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Joshua Steiner, CFA

 

Jonathan Casteleyn, CFA, CMT

 



PODCAST: McCullough: live from las vegas

Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough weighs in from Caesars Palace with his latest take on the market, Fed and economy before speaking at the Traders Expo later this morning. According to Keith, it's Buy-The-Damn-Bubble (for now).

 


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

Monetary Miasma

Client Talking Points

JAPAN

So here's what we're looking at this morning: #TaperTalk equals Up Dollar equals Down Yen equals Nikkei Up +1.9% to +50.2% year-to-date. Cool, no? That’s exactly the global macro environment we had for nine months until Ben Bernanke decided not to taper.

UK

A strong currency is “bad for exports” right? Wrong! UK Factory Orders hit an 18 YEAR-HIGH this morning with #StrongPound. A little austerity and no QE goes a long way towards the purchasing power of the people and producer margins.

UST 10YR

The 10-year Treasury yield tested the top-end of my immediate-term 2.63-2.81% risk range on #TaperTalk and backed off. A) I don’t think the Fed is going to taper in December and B) I think this will foster a 2.3-2.9% type 10-year risk range for the intermediate-term. Confusion on tapering should eventually breed contempt (volatility) in both stocks and bonds. Stay tuned.

Asset Allocation

CASH 50% US EQUITIES 8%
INTL EQUITIES 8% COMMODITIES 6%
FIXED INCOME 6% INTL CURRENCIES 22%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
FXB

Our bullish call on the British Pound was borne out of our Q4 Macro themes call. We believe the health of a nation’s economy is reflected in its currency. We remain bullish on the regime change at the BOE, replacing Governor Mervyn King with Mark Carney. In its October meeting, the Bank of England voted unanimously (9-0) to keep rates on hold and the asset purchase program unchanged.  If we look at the GBP/USD cross, we believe the UK’s hawkish monetary and fiscal policy should appreciate the GBP, as Bernanke/Yellen continue to burn the USD via delaying the call to taper.

WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. We think that the prevailing bearish view is very backward looking and leaves out a big piece of the WWW story, which is that integration of these brands into the WWW portfolio will allow the former PLG group to achieve what it could not under its former owner (most notably – international growth, and leverage a more diverse selling infrastructure in the US). Furthermore it will grow without needing to add the capital we’d otherwise expect as a stand-alone company – especially given WWW’s consolidation from four divisions into three -- which improves asset turns and financial returns.

TROW

Financials sector senior analyst Jonathan Casteleyn continues to carry T. Rowe Price as his highest-conviction long call, based on the long-range reallocation out of bonds with investors continuing to move into stocks.  T Rowe is one of the fastest growing equity asset managers and has consistently had the best performing stock funds over the past ten years.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

Buy-the-damn-bubble (for now) @KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I love everything about investing except maybe the fact that I’m actually in the investment industry." -Christian Drake (Hedgeye analyst)

STAT OF THE DAY

Got Pounds? A measure of new orders at U.K. factories rose to the highest in almost two decades in November and expectations for the next three months improved, the Confederation of British Industry said. The CBI’s manufacturing gauge climbed to 11 from minus 4 in October, the highest since March 1995. 



Valuation Consternation

“I love everything about investing except maybe the fact that I’m actually in the investment industry.  If you see how sausage is made you probably wouldn’t eat it.”   Yours Truly, ~10 hours ago

 

 

One day back in high school my friend Michael decided to start referring to himself as “Mike Nice.”  Quoting yourself to jumpstart an investment missive is about as cool as trying to give yourself your own nickname....but the message fits the theme today, I can’t think of anything else and at 4am, questionable ideas have a sneaking ability to cloak themselves as appealing.

 

Anyway, back to the Global Macro Grind….

 

It has been difficult to escape the valuation discussion the last few weeks as bubble speculation has been ubiquitous alongside higher nominal, and real, highs for domestic equities.   We added our own speculative cogitations to the already teeming cauldron of valuation commentary yesterday (see BUBBLE MONGERING for more) in a note surveying a current cross-section of market valuation measures.  We reprise those below, but the takeaway was fairly straightforward -  across the balance of metrics, equities are, indeed, moving towards overvalued.

 

To recapitulate the selection of metrics we considered yesterday:

 

Shiller PE:   The Shiller PE ratio attempts to normalize the price to earnings ratio by adjusting for economic cyclicality.  It does so by dividing the price of the S&P500 by the 10Y average of inflation adjusted earnings.   At its current reading of 24.9X, the CAPE ratio is moving into the top decile of its historical range.   Mapping the Shiller PE by decile vs subsequent market performance suggests return expectations should move systematically lower alongside incremental increases in valuation. Historically, 1Y and 3Y returns progressively decline for each decile change in the Shiller PE (ie. average forward returns by decile decline as multiples move higher).   

 

Tobins Q-Ratio:  Longer-term valuation arguments center on the premise that returns on capital should equalize to cost of capital and  market values should normalize to economic value.  Tobin’s Q ratio is not a measure we use to tactically manage risk, but we can appreciate the intuition underneath its application – after all, why buy an asset when you can “re-create” it for less and compete away existing, excess profit.   Currently, the q-ratio sits just below the 1.0 level and approximately 1.0 standard deviation above the long-term mean value – a level that has generally not been a harbinger of positive forward returns historically.

 

S&P 500 Market Cap-to-GDP:  Assuming the collective output of SPX constituents credibly reflects aggregate national production (or serves as a credible proxy for it), the Market Capitalization-to-GDP ratio effectively represents a price-to-sales multiple for the economy.  On a historical basis, we are certainly entering “expensive” territory as we push towards breaching 100% to the upside.  At current levels we are approximately equal to the 2007 highs and well above the long-term average. 

 

FORWARD/TRAILING P/E:  On conventional P/E metrics, the market is moderately expensive currently at 17X trailing earnings and 15X forward earnings.  Valuing the market on a single year of (recurrently over-optimistic) forward earnings estimates has its myopic trappings and, additionally, any perceived cheapness in current multiples should be discounted to account for mean reversion downside off peak corporate profitability (more below). 

 

PEAK MARGINS:  In the Chart of the Day below we show after-tax corporate profits as a percentage of GDP.  The latest 2Q13 data marked another higher high in corporate profitability at 11% of GDP – this is some 85% above the long-term average.  Unless you think peak returns to capital provide a sustainable path to aggregate demand growth in the face of negative trend growth in real earnings, trough returns to labor, middling productivity growth and secularly depressed investment spending, then the mean reversion risk for operating margins remains asymmetrically to the downside.

 

ESTIMATES: Topline growth estimates for the SPX (market weighted) don’t look unreasonable at +4.8% YoY for 2014.   However, the slope on earnings growth (+10.9% for 2014) over the NTM continues to look overly aggressive given expectations for further, significant margin expansion (+100 to +250bps in incremental expansion over 2014) above already peak corporate profitability.  Of course, iteratively ratcheting down expectations and subsequently beating deflated growth estimates over the course of the year remains the prevailing (and hereto successful) playbook strategy for higher equity prices.

 

So, generally speaking, we are overvalued.  Practically, what do you do with that?

 

A chief problem for the bear camp is that that the overbought-overvalued market narrative has become a tired one as moderately elevated valuation has characterized most of 2013 and prices advancing at a premium to profits is not a new phenomenon.

 

Valuation-in-isolation narratives are some of the sell-sides finest sausage and sirenic when expertly crafted.  But Valuation isn’t a catalyst. 

 

At Hedgeye, we use a broad range of valuation and sentiment indicators when contemplating the direction of markets and where our view sits in the context of current prices, consensus estimates, and prevailing sentiment. From an Investment decision making perspective, valuation sits somewhere near the middle-bottom of the our consideration hierarchy.

 

We get that valuation matters in anchoring return expectations over the longer term.  Underneath the technicals, acute policy catalysts, and reflexivity that drives immediate and intermediate term price trends sits the steady drumbeat of fundamentals and an accordion-like tether to ‘fair value’. 

 

However, Price, not deviation from estimated intrinsic value, together with our view on marginal changes in macro fundamentals are the signals we use to risk manage immediate and intermediate term exposure.

 

With the Price signal bullish (SPX and all nine S&P sectors in Bullish Formation) and fund flows, decent domestic and global macro data, rising M&A activity, near universal acknowledgement of the existent ‘bubbliness’ (can you really be in the terminal stage of a bubble if everyone agrees it’s a bubble?), and the lack of a discrete negative catalyst all supporting equities in the immediate term, we’ll continue to lean long until the price signal changes. 

 

Tops are process and we have continued to Buy The Bubble on shallow corrections within our published risk ranges while taking down our gross and net equity exposure since the No-Taper announcement in September.  We’ll probably continue to run tight and #RemainActive as yesterday’s FOMC Minutes only extended the confused communication policy out of the Fed.

 

Raise some cash.  Embrace the uncertainty and volatility of it all.  Don’t eat the sausage.  Eat a snickers… Don't invest like a Diva

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now as follows:

 

UST 10yr Yield 2.67-2.83% 

SPX 1 

DAX 9139-9266 

Nikkei 14

VIX 11.98-14.28 

USD 80.62-81.37 

 

 

Christian B. Drake

Associate

 

Valuation Consternation - drakeam

 

Valuation Consternation - 577


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