“You know that the Englishman’s idea of a compromise is? He says, some people say there is a god. Some people say there is no god. The truth probably lies somewhere between these two statements.”
-William Butler Yeats
I would hardly call myself a classical music aficionado, but I do enjoy tuning Spotify into classical music while grinding away in the office. One of my recent favorites, “Fanfare for the Common Man”, was written by American composer Aaron Copland for the Cincinnati Symphony Orchestra in 1942. (Incidentally, the Chicago Blackhawks use this as a pre-game song as they enter the ice.)
Copland’s idea for the fanfare came from a speech by then Vice President of the United States, Henry Wallace. He gave this speech at a time when Americans were debating wartime strategy and America’s role in the post-World War II order. One of Wallace’s key points in the speech was that any post war peace should be such that it makes the common man better off for the long run.
This morning it seems our two great political parties, and their esteemed leadership, are coming together on a compromise to benefit the common man. According to reports this morning from our contacts in Washington, the Senate deal that is on the table is to extend U.S. borrowing authority through February 7th and fund the government through January 15th 2014.
Thank goodness that these folks are looking out for the common man by cobbling together a deal that my 11 year old niece could have negotiated. Despite the short term and non-materiality of this proposed agreement, it still has two hurdles – a) Ted Cruz, or another Senator, could filibuster and delay passage until next week and b) Speaker Boehner in the House could opt not to send the bill to the floor for an up / down vote.
There is one data point out this morning that gives me great confidence that the debt ceiling will be resolved orderly. No, it’s not that credit default swaps are trading lower, that Libor is benign, or that gold has been selling off, but rather that the ultimate contrarian indicator, a ratings agency, Fitch specifically, placed the U.S. credit ratings on negative watch yesterday.
Back to the global macro grind . . .
A major call-out this morning is the Shanghai Composite which is down almost -2%. This weakness is being driven by the property sector which is under pressure based on local news reports that longer term regulations could be in place soon for controlling property in China.
Being the price and market driven analysts we are, the move in Chinese equities this morning is certainly a red flag in our notebooks, but isn’t changing our more positive view on China. In the Chart of the Day today, we highlight China Foreign Exchange Reserves, which have continued to build even as money has left other emerging markets in recent quarters.
Admittedly, though, China is hard to ignore as it compromises more than 30% of the world’s foreign currency reserves. Japan is a not so close second at about 10%. After that we have Saudi Arabia, Switzerland and Russia rounding out the top 5.
From the currency war perspective, there is certainly a bit of People’s Bank of China manipulation going on as exports were admittedly a little soft in September and the Chinese Yuan is eclipsing twenty year highs. Of course no rational person could blame the PBOC for playing games with their reserves as the U.S. central bank continues to confuse the market with its intentions. To taper, or not to taper, that is the question?
Sadly, if we can actually get the debt ceiling and government shutdown resolved in the next day or so, then all eyes will once again be fixated on the Fed. We’d be remiss this morning if we didn’t at least highlight how ineffective the program of quantitative easing has been. Hat tip to David Einhorn from Greenlight Capital for flagging this in his recent investor letter:
“In August, the San Francisco Fed published an economic research paper that estimated that the $600 billion spent on QE2 added a meager 0.13% to real GDP growth in late 2010 (about $20 billion) and that the benefit fades after two years. Given that, what practical difference does it make whether the Fed buys a monthly $85 billion or $75 billion or no additional securities at all for that matter?”
Buying any good, even say jelly doughnuts, as Einhorn highlights, has a more direct impact on economic activity than QE. After all, that is actually how the real economy works. We buy and sell goods and the velocity of money grows the economy naturally.
Interestingly, based on the math above, the Fed could actually be the worst investor in history. Just imagine a $600 billion capital allocation that generates a 0.13% return! Even there my 11 year old niece could do much better.
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges are now:
UST 10yr yield 2.66-2.73%
Keep your head up and stick on the ice,
Daryl G. Jones
Director of Research
Takeaway: We still like the company, a lot. But, short-term pressure in the casual dining industry is forcing us to take a step back.
We are removing CAKE from the Hedgeye Best Ideas list as a LONG.
Getting Out of the Way
We remain extremely cautious on the casual dining segment and are not comfortable being long the name heading into the 3Q13 print.
In addition, its looks like industry sales trends are off to a slow start in 4Q13, which leads us to believe it could be a disappointing fourth quarter.
A couple of weeks ago, we posted a research note highlighting the bull case for CAKE. To be clear, it remains one of our favorite casual dining names and we plan to revisit it on the long side when the time is appropriate. Our call is more about a tumultuous casual dining environment, and the potential short-term pain it could cause, than it is about the company itself. In fact, we would not be comfortable being long any casual dining names heading into earnings season. If you need to be long something, we suggest looking to the quick-service segment, where we continue to like CMG, YUM and KKD.
The chart below highlights the correlation between the ICSC US Retail Chain Store Sales Index and CAKE’s comparable restaurant sales. As depicted, the ICSC Index ticked down in 3Q and this trend has continued into 4Q. According to Consensus Metrix, CAKE’s comparable restaurant sales in 3Q and 4Q are expected to increase +0.4% and +1.7%, respectively. We believe these estimates are too high and should come down.
Also, we’d be remiss not to note – the slowdown in sales we are seeing in the early part of October coincides with lower consumer confidence numbers, as reported by the daily Gallup confidence reading.
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This week Hedgeye Energy sector senior analyst Kevin Kaiser hosted an expert call with Richard Kuprewicz, an energy industry expert with over forty years’ experience as an engineer in the oil and gas industry. Mr. Kuprewicz consults to government agencies and NGOs worldwide, as well as to public and industry bodies, on pipeline regulation, operation and design, with particular emphasis on operation in unusually sensitive areas of high population density or environmental sensitivity.
Video of Kaiser discussing Kinder Morgan
Mr. Kuprewicz discussed the current state of long-haul oil and natural gas pipeline maintenance in the US today and its implications for investors in energy MLPs. If you have been following Kaiser’s work on the MLP space, you know he considers the amounts of money spent – or not spent – on maintaining pipeline integrity (“maintenance capex”) is a key to determining whether management is acting responsibly in the interest of the shareholders and society.
Oil and gas pipelines are regulated under the US Department of Transportation’s Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHSMA) and its “Integrity Management Program.” The IMP focuses on minimal safety requirements to prevent pipeline rupture. There is no specific spending requirement or set of action steps associated with the IMP. Instead there are what are called “process steps” which assume the operator will pay attention to integrity of its pipelines and specific risks associated with unique conditions. This applies particularly to what PHSMA defines as “high consequence” geographical areas – defined by potential danger to human population, or to the environment. Kuprewicz says that many companies routinely provide “high consequence” level oversight throughout their system. And then, some don’t.
The IMP was instituted about 10 yrs ago. Kuprewicz says PHMSA rulemaking is just a First Step in a process that will take many years to unfold. By itself, Kuprewicz says the IMP standard is not sufficient to impose high safety standards across the industry.
Kuprewicz says PHMSA regulatory enforcement is “mostly reactive,” rather than relying on extensive inspections. He says the agencies involved in pipeline oversight are surprised at the large number of operators who “don’t get the fundamental concept of Integrity Management,’” pointing to a number of serious pipeline ruptures in recent years. Kuprewicz says many of these companies have over-complicated the regulatory process, creating reams of internal documentation about the IMP, but not actually implementing its principles.
Operators are frequently not audited – luckily for them, says Kuprewicz, since many would not pass. Pipeline operators enter their pipeline integrity data into the PHMSA database under a one-way process: the operator can enter the data, but PHMSA can not change it. This means that when operators enter erroneous data – or even fraudulent data – it remains in the record.
Some pipeline operators focus on visible problem areas, leaving most of their pipeline unattended and exposed. “Common sense tells you most of the maintenance cost is in the pumping and compressor stations,” says Kuprewicz, but the highest actual risk is on the miles and miles of main line. A compressor station breakdown will lead to a shut-down. But a main line rupture can have serious consequences, including potential massive loss of life.
Kuprewicz says that age of a pipeline is not the best indicator of risk of rupture. If properly maintained, he says carbon steel pipe essentially has no “useful life.” Well-maintained pipe can last “forever” he says, citing pipelines that have been in continuous operation for a century. Kuprewicz says the accounting practice of taking depreciation on carbon steel pipeline, generally over a 50 or 60 year “useful life,” does not reflect reality.
Of course the key is proper maintenance, including periodic replacement of segments that show signs of stress or other risk factors. Kuprewicz says the key to proper maintenance is the operator’s ability to accurately identify and assess the specific risks to their pipeline, often segment by segment. This makes it logical that the IMP requires “proper maintenance,” rather than specifying spending levels. However, it effectively leaves oversight of the operation to the operators themselves. Conflicts arise in the MLP sector, where the primary business of the entity is often not producing or transporting oil and gas, but rather making increasingly large periodic cash distributions to the unit-holders. One obvious way to increase cash in the till is to not spend it on incidentals such as maintaining one’s pipeline.
An operator’s definition of “acceptable risk” may be very different from yours, especially if you or your loved ones live in a “high impact area.” Operators, like other business executives, calculate “risk” in terms of projected cost. Over time, failure to provide adequate ongoing maintenance makes pipeline ruptures both increasingly likely, and increasingly unpredictable. An operator that doesn’t put up serious maintenance capex is also not likely to do ongoing assessment to identify specific risks throughout their network. Thus, big regulatory changes are almost always brought about by major ruptures that are often both tragic and extremely expensive.
A more recent problem spreading throughout the industry is the lack of reliable records, particularly pipeline maintenance records and risk assessments. Many oil and gas companies have gone through mergers in recent years – indeed, the MLP space continues to be driven at least partly by an ongoing strategy of buying operating properties or companies in order to distribute their cash flow. In the wake of a transaction, the inefficient merger of cultures can lead to chaos. As management focuses on getting control of costs, one place they always look is to the back office. Kuprewicz says a surprisingly large number of merger or acquisition transactions have resulted in managers ordering the destruction of critical records as cost saving measure.
A related risk is the loss of the expertise of older employees. Professionals with 30 or 40 years’ experience are retiring. In an M&A scenario these employees are frequently offered – or forced into – early retirement, with the result that both the industry expertise and critical knowledge of the corporate culture walk out the door and are not adequately replaced. Rather than having older seasoned employees mentoring younger ones, the new hires step right into positions with real operational and decision-making responsibility. Kuprewicz says a number of companies have repeated mistakes they made ten and twenty years ago, sometimes with dire consequences.
Finally, Kuprewicz touched on the phenomenon known as “gold plating,” where some operators spend ostentatiously – often in the aftermath of a major tragedy. “I used to think a billion dollars was a lot of money,” mused Kuprewicz, “until I saw the way some of these operators throw money around” to cover their tracks after a major pipeline rupture. This creates the illusion that the company cares, that management is taking the situation seriously, that it has actually addressed the problem. But these “gold plating” exercises often do not dig down to the fundamental question of why the process broke down, of how the operator lost control of the pipeline.
Cost cutting tends to lie at the root of many pipeline problems and is associated with most breakdowns. Complex organizations tend to focus more on senior management directives to cut costs, and less on engineers in the field who say more resources are needed to address specific risks. Says Kuprewicz, costs decline linearly, but risks rise exponentially. This ends up in literally in a “bet the company,” scenario. Kuprewicz says he does not see a sector-wide tendency on the part of MLPs and other operators to make reckless decisions. Still, when there are massive tragedies, he says there’s nearly always someone in senior management beating the big drum to cut costs.
The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.
LONG SIGNALS 80.30%
SHORT SIGNALS 78.51%