SSS MONITOR: SPOTTING TRENDS IN THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY

We are publishing our SSS Monitor in order to provide a clear picture of same-store sales trends within the restaurant industry. Grouping chains by concept allows us to effectively measure a chain’s performance against its more immediate peers. Same-store sales are color coded green, if above, or red, if below, the sub-sectors mean.  2-year averages are color coded green, if accelerating, or red, if decelerating, on a sequential basis.

Overall, Fine Dining and Quick-Service same-store sales trends have been strong, while Casual Dining and Family Dining same-store sales trends remain anemic.  The tables below highlight these trends and provide consensus same-store sales estimates for the current fiscal quarter. 

Notable Trends

  • Casual Dining chains seeing accelerating trends: Applebee’s, Bonefish, Carraba’s, Cheesecake Factory, Chili’s, LongHorn, Maggiano’s, Outback, and Red Robin.
  • Casual Dining chains seeing decelerating trends: BJ’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, Olive Garden, Red Lobster, Ruby Tuesday, and Texas Roadhouse.
  • Fine Dining concepts continue to see strong mid-single digit SSS, but have begun to decelerate on a 2-year basis.
  • Family Dining concepts continue to see very low-single digit SSS, but are accelerating on a 2-year basis.
  • Fast Casual concepts are seeing SSS growth decelerate marginally, while remaining relatively flat on a 2-year basis.
  • In the Quick-Service segment – Chicken, Coffee/Snack, Mexican and Pizza concepts continue to see strong SSS growth while old line sandwich concepts continue to be the group laggard, with SSS remaining in the low-single digit range.  Burger King and McDonald's are lagging Wendy's and SONC, which are showing real menu innovation to drive incremental traffic.   

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Howard Penney

Managing Director