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Remember. The only leading indicator that fits the 10-year yield like a glove is the Non Seasonally Adjusted rolling Jobless Claims series.

Voila.

Jobless Claims +10YR UST - pow1

Irrespective of today’s data, the Trend in claims has been one of accelerating improvement and both the market and 10Y bond yields continue to track the labor market strength higher.  

Jobless Claims +10YR UST - pow2