Misunderstood Employment Print?

 

Yes, the 345,000 print that the manic futures traders chased each other on was better than expected, but I don't think they could have had the time to model the number that matters here - the unemployment rate.

 

I was at 9.3% for the month and it came in even higher than that at 9.4% (consensus was 9.2%). I was at 9.3% because I thought that the sequential acceleration in the unemployment rate would stay at 40 basis points (month-over month). It shot above that to +50 basis points.

 

So THE point here is that the sequential rate of unemployment just RE-ACCELERATED!

 

Recall that one of the main tenets to our bullish bias for the last 3-months has been the (E - Employment) in our US Consumer MEGA Squeeze call. The call was based on the unemployment going up at a lesser rate - and that it did for the past few months...

 

That delta shifts back to the danger zone today. Sequential accelerations matter.

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Misunderstood Employment Print? - unemply12

 


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