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In an effort to evaluate performance and as a follow up to our YouTube, we compare how the quarter measured up to previous management commentary and guidance

OVERALL:  

  • IN-LINE:  As seen by our recent pricing surveys, weaker Caribbean market and aggressive pricing is being offset by a steadily improving Europe market for Royal Caribbean. FY 2013 guidance remains relatively unchanged.  Caribbean pressures should not be any comfort, particularly to Carnival. 

RCL 2Q 2013 REPORT CARD - 111

RCL 2Q 2013 REPORT CARD - 2

ONBOARD REVENUE

  • BETTER:  2Q onboard yields were up a whopping 8.2%.  Gaming, beverage, specialty restaurants, shore excursions all outperformed.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We saw improvement in all categories for onboard revenue. Ships that have been recently revitalized and vessels sailing on new itineraries did particularly well."

CARIBBEAN

  • WORSE:  Mgmt reduced Caribbean expectations for the rest of FY 2013 as pricing competition has picked up recently
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "Over the last few weeks though, we have seen an improvement in booking activity and we are still forecasting record yields for the Caribbean."

BOOKINGS CURVE

  • SAME:  Booking window has been expanding  
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "On average, our guests are booking their cruise about two weeks earlier this year than they were in 2011 and 2012. In fact, the booking curve has looked strikingly similar to 2008 for the last several months."

EUROPE

  • BETTER:  Mid single-digits ticket yield growth is above expectations.  Mgmt is more comfortable with the outlook on Europe and is optimistic on this market in 2014.  
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "We considered our European summer revenue projections to have more risks attached to them in comparison to other spheres of deployment. Although there is still somewhat limited visibility for all of our summer deployment, at this juncture, in Europe, we are sufficiently ahead of 2012 on both rate and occupancy, to be comfortable that our European deployment is of comparable risk to our other programs."

CHINA/JAPAN

  • SAME:  one of the drivers which lowered yield expectations for the year.  The terriotory disputes have resulted in 30 modified sailings and increased bookings volatility.  China is 3% deployment for 2013.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "Turning to China, the region that represents 5% of our capacity in 2013. The hostility between Japan and China surrounding the disputed islands in the East China Sea continues to affect our itineraries and our demand generation. We have now removed the Japanese ports of call from nearly all of 2013's North Asia program. As a result, most itineraries from our China homeport of Shanghai and Tianjin are calling only on ports of call on South Korea."

AUSTRALIA

  • SAME:  Increased capacity continues to pressure yields in this market
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "In the near-term is flat to slightly lower yield outlook for us for this year. we would expect that Australia, as a southern summer market, would continue to grow and be a mainstay of the cruise industry going forward."

PULLMANTUR

  • SAME:  Has been lagging its competitiors.  RCL recently opened a new head office in Latin America.
  • PREVIOUSLY:  "Pullmantur's performance is inevitably affected by that [Spain] very strongly and that's been a big disappointment and I don't see any quick turn away from massive improvement given the economic situation."