June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print

The June Payroll data showed another month of sequential improvement,  confirming the continued acceleration observed in the NSA Jobless Claims numbers over the last month.   Private (+202K) and Nonfarm Payrolls (+195K) both improved sequentially, the Unemployment Rate held at 7.6%,  job growth across age demographics was largely positive, Temp & Part-time employment increased and State & Local government employment growth held positive for a second straight month.   


Additionally, today's NFP estimates reflected a net two month revision of +70K with April revised from +149K to +199K while May was revised from +175K to +195K. 


In short, the Labor Market data continues to reflect sustained, steady improvement despite the existent fiscal policy drag and negative seasonal distortion and continues to confirm the pro-growth signal implied in #RatesRising.   


Together with declining federal profligacy and a market rebalancing in expectation for some measure of Fed policy reversal, the ongoing TREND improvement in the fundamental, domestic macro data (Labor/Housing/Confidence/Consumption/Credit) remains supportive of our bullish #strongdollar view and in favor of a continued long bias towards domestic consumption and growth positive equity exposure. 


A summary view of the June Payroll Data below.


Strong Employment, Strong Dollar, Strong (Pro-Growth) Yield Spread Expansion.  80's & Sunny on tap for the East Coast -enjoy the holiday weekend.  


June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print - June Employment Summary


June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print - CPS vs CES  2Y


June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print - NSA CLaims



Christian B. Drake

Senior Analyst 


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