June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print

The June Payroll data showed another month of sequential improvement,  confirming the continued acceleration observed in the NSA Jobless Claims numbers over the last month.   Private (+202K) and Nonfarm Payrolls (+195K) both improved sequentially, the Unemployment Rate held at 7.6%,  job growth across age demographics was largely positive, Temp & Part-time employment increased and State & Local government employment growth held positive for a second straight month.   

 

Additionally, today's NFP estimates reflected a net two month revision of +70K with April revised from +149K to +199K while May was revised from +175K to +195K. 

 

In short, the Labor Market data continues to reflect sustained, steady improvement despite the existent fiscal policy drag and negative seasonal distortion and continues to confirm the pro-growth signal implied in #RatesRising.   

 

Together with declining federal profligacy and a market rebalancing in expectation for some measure of Fed policy reversal, the ongoing TREND improvement in the fundamental, domestic macro data (Labor/Housing/Confidence/Consumption/Credit) remains supportive of our bullish #strongdollar view and in favor of a continued long bias towards domestic consumption and growth positive equity exposure. 

 

A summary view of the June Payroll Data below.

 

Strong Employment, Strong Dollar, Strong (Pro-Growth) Yield Spread Expansion.  80's & Sunny on tap for the East Coast -enjoy the holiday weekend.  

 

June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print - June Employment Summary

 

June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print - CPS vs CES  2Y

 

June Employment - Another #StrongDollar Print - NSA CLaims

 

 

Christian B. Drake

Senior Analyst 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more