The June Payroll data showed another month of sequential improvement, confirming the continued acceleration observed in the NSA Jobless Claims numbers over the last month. Private (+202K) and Nonfarm Payrolls (+195K) both improved sequentially, the Unemployment Rate held at 7.6%, job growth across age demographics was largely positive, Temp & Part-time employment increased and State & Local government employment growth held positive for a second straight month.
Additionally, today's NFP estimates reflected a net two month revision of +70K with April revised from +149K to +199K while May was revised from +175K to +195K.
In short, the Labor Market data continues to reflect sustained, steady improvement despite the existent fiscal policy drag and negative seasonal distortion and continues to confirm the pro-growth signal implied in #RatesRising.
Together with declining federal profligacy and a market rebalancing in expectation for some measure of Fed policy reversal, the ongoing TREND improvement in the fundamental, domestic macro data (Labor/Housing/Confidence/Consumption/Credit) remains supportive of our bullish #strongdollar view and in favor of a continued long bias towards domestic consumption and growth positive equity exposure.
A summary view of the June Payroll Data below.
Strong Employment, Strong Dollar, Strong (Pro-Growth) Yield Spread Expansion. 80's & Sunny on tap for the East Coast -enjoy the holiday weekend.
Christian B. Drake