This note was originally published
at 8am on May 22, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.
“Look, I want to hear your opinion.”
-George F. Kennan
One of the hardest things to do in this profession is to check your position at the door and listen to the other side of the trade. Some opinions matter; some don’t. The market’s opinion always matters – so don’t just hear Mr. Market; listen to him very closely.
Our all-star energy analyst, Kevin Kaiser, and I had the opportunity to debate one of our best short ideas with the top holder of the stock yesterday. This wasn’t this 70 year old hedge fund manager’s first rodeo. Herniated disc in his back and all, he took the meeting with us during the market open. He had plenty of other things going on, but he really listened to our opinion. #Respect
At one point in the meeting, the debate between Kaiser and the analyst in the room got so intense that the PM decided to call the CEO of the company in question. He got the exec on the phone within a minute, told him what the bear case was (right in front of us), and asked for his opinion. Watching him listen to the CEO’s answers made me smile. Questioning and listening like that is not easy.
Back to the Global Macro Grind…
This game isn’t easy. Laden with our individual confirmation biases, we are all hostage to being human while we play it. There is a real-time score on every decision we make. Our opinion is marked to market every day. If you don’t love that; you don’t love the game.
I’m not always sure if I am getting dumber or smarter each day. From a Global Macro Strategy perspective, that’s why I find it useful to study history – and not just market history – but the history of decision making. What was the process? Were they making decisions within an open network of information? What dogmas, agendas, and conflicts of interests impacted those decisions?
I just finished reading George F. Kennan’s brick of a biography. It’s thick because the man lived 101 years and kept strategizing until the very end. He never retired because he never stopped questioning, listening, and thinking. He was one of the most introspective and self-effacing strategists I have ever studied. If you had a seat at the table in a meeting with him, your opinion mattered.
“The thing you were planning for took place the day before yesterday, and everyone who wants you to know why in the hell you didn’t foresee it a long time ago.” –George F. Kennan (pg 277)
Which brings me to today…
Mr. Macro Market’s opinion (#StrongDollar, Down Gold, Up Stocks) into Ben Bernanke’s testimony to Congress today is now old news. Why in the hell didn’t people foresee that there would ultimately be an end to these ridiculous expectations of endless QEs?
Why isn’t my opinion on expecting no more incremental easing equally ridiculous?
This is what makes a market. This is also why I spend so much time on both the road (seeing clients) and on Twitter (reviewing credible criticism of my positions). It’s not personal. Everyone’s goal in this game is to be right for the right reasons.
The aforementioned Kennan quotes came out of the US State Department policy planning meetings of 1947-1949. At the big turns in US policy history (post WWII in this case), respecting the pattern of decision making is critical.
Is Bernanke at the turn?
If you use the economic data for an opinion, he definitely should be. He’s been effectively easing monetary policy now since the day he took his seat as the head of the Fed in 2006. It’s been a long death march for conservative US Savers that needs to end.
What major macro markets have already front-run him making the turn?
- US Dollar Index = Bullish Formation (anything tighter, on the margin, is bullish for a currency that’s been devalued)
- Gold = Bearish Formation (up for 12 straight years with the last 6 of them becoming Bernanke’s bff, ending)
- US Treasury Yields = Bullish Formation (provided that our long-term TAIL risk line of 1.82% on the 10yr holds)
But will 1.82% on the 10yr hold? Will Bernanke acknowledge economic gravity? I don’t know. But neither my opinion nor yours will matter come 10AM EST. Pencils down – your central planning overlord will issue his un-elected opinion.
I think I know how our CYA State of The Union in this country got to this point. But the more history I read, the less I know about how politically conflicted and compromised it really was all along.
There’s nothing I can do about that history now. Neither can you. The best we can do each and every risk management morning isn’t playing the game we’d all like to play. It’s to play the game that history has put in front of us.
Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), Copper, US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, and the SP500 are now $1341-1409, $102.16-105.13, $3.26-3.39, $83.57-84.69, 101.49-104.62, 1.82-2.01%, 12.18-13.79, and 1651-1682, respectively.
Best of luck out there today,
Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer