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INITIAL CLAIMS: IS OBAMACARE ENERGIZING THE LABOR MARKET?

Takeaway: Underlying labor market trends continue to accelerate. Obamacare may be a growing factor.

Below is the detailed breakdown of this morning's claims data from our head of Financials, Josh Steiner.  If you would like to setup a call with Josh or trial his research, please contact 

 

 

Last week we pointed out that claims had been diverging from historical trends for four weeks. This week's print brings that divergence to five weeks. NSA claims last week were 12.5% lower than the same week last year. 4-week rolling NSA claims last week were lower by 9.3% vs last year, an improvement vs. 8.4% the prior week. The seasonally-adjusted data is obviously very strong as well.

 

To reiterate, the strength in the underlying labor market over the last few weeks is strong enough to more than offset the seasonality distortions we regularly highlight. This continues to turn the duck & cover in May dynamic on its head. It doesn't hurt that the housing metrics are also strengthening, though this shouldn't be surprising as the two (labor & housing) are closely co-integrated.

 

Is ACA Driving Hiring?

An interesting question worth asking is Why? Why is the labor market showing accelerating improvement? One hypothesis we've been considering is the ACA impact on low-wage, high employment industries like restaurants, hotels, etc. Under ACA (i.e. Obamacare), employers with 50+ employees must provide healthcare to employees who work 30 hours or more per week. Part-time (those under 30 hours) and temp workers are exempted from the requirement. Industries like restaurants and hotels, that employ huge numbers of relatively low-wage earners, would see their costs rise materially under ACA. Not surprisingly, many employers are quietly seeking to sidestep ACA by cutting workers to sub-30 hours and offsetting the lost hours by hiring additional part-time and temp workers.

 

Anecdotally, we've been reading a lot of articles about temp agencies seeing significantly higher demand of late. We ran across one that quoted an analyst at another firm saying that when Massachusetts implemented its universal healthcare plan, growth in hiring of temp workers in the state ran at six times the national average.

 

One thing to consider is that companies are treading very cautiously here from a PR standpoint. No employer wants to be seen as intentionally seeking to sidestep ACA requirements. So much of this is going on under the radar. As counterintuitive as it may seem, we think ACA is actually creating jobs in significant numbers, while simultaneously reducing many workers from full-time (40 hrs+) to part-time (sub 30). [Hedgeye Macro:  We would expect to see this dynamic manifest in a decline in weekly hours worked (also impacted by gov’t furloughs) and ave weekly earnings.  We observed some pressure across both measures in April with hours worked and weekly earnings declining  0.6%, and 0.4% month-over-month, respectively]

 

The Numbers

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 1k to 323k from 324k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 3k to 327k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 4k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -6.25k WoW to 336.75k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -9.3% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -8.4%.

 

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Joshua Steiner, CFA

 


Labor Gains

Takeaway: Not only are overall employment trends improving, today's jobless claims report shows that conditions are improving at an accelerating rate.

Domestic labor market trends continue to improve. In fact, not only are trends improving, they are showing accelerating improvement. 

 

The four-week rolling average in non-seasonally adjusted claims, our preferred judge of trend with respect to underlying conditions in the labor market, improved 95 basis points week-over-week with the year-over-year change in four-week rolling claims improving to -9.4% year-on-year from -8.4% year-on-year the week prior, and -5.9% two weeks prior (note that with respect to jobless claims a negative number is positive as it indicates a decline in job loss).  

 

The current, positive trend in jobless claims continues to overwhelm both the negative seasonal distortion currently present in the data and any negative sequestration related drag.  Note also, the Nonfarm and Private payroll numbers reported by the the government's Bureau of Labor Statistics are net numbers, thus the decline in jobless claims carries a positive read through for the monthly employment figures for May.  

 

Check out the chart below.

 

Labor Gains - 10Y vs NSA Claims 050913

 


INITIAL CLAIMS: IS OBAMACARE ENERGIZING THE LABOR MARKET?

Takeaway: It's too early to say for sure what's causing accelerating trends in the labor market, but we think Obamacare is a growing factor.

Last week we pointed out that claims had been diverging from historical trends for four weeks. This week's print brings that divergence to five weeks. NSA claims last week were 12.5% lower than the same week last year. 4-week rolling NSA claims last week were lower by 9.3% vs last year, an improvement vs. 8.4% the prior week. The seasonally-adjusted data is obviously very strong as well.

 

To reiterate, the strength in the underlying labor market over the last few weeks is strong enough to more than offset the seasonality distortions we regularly highlight. This continues to turn the duck & cover in May dynamic on its head. It doesn't hurt that the housing metrics are also strengthening, though this shouldn't be surprising as the two (labor & housing) are closely co-integrated.

 

Is ACA Driving Hiring?

An interesting question worth asking is Why? Why is the labor market showing accelerating improvement? One hypothesis we've been considering is the ACA impact on low-wage, high employment industries like restaurants, hotels, etc. Under ACA (i.e. Obamacare), employers with 50+ employees must provide healthcare to employees who work 30 hours or more per week. Part-time (those under 30 hours) and temp workers are exempted from the requirement. Industries like restaurants and hotels, that employ huge numbers of relatively low-wage earners, would see their costs rise materially under ACA. Not surprisingly, many employers are quietly seeking to sidestep ACA by cutting workers to sub-30 hours and offsetting the lost hours by hiring additional part-time and temp workers.

 

Anecdotally, we've been reading a lot of articles about temp agencies seeing significantly higher demand of late. We ran across one that quoted an analyst at another firm saying that when Massachusetts implemented its universal healthcare plan, growth in hiring of temp workers in the state ran at six times the national average.

 

One thing to consider is that companies are treading very cautiously here from a PR standpoint. No employer wants to be seen as intentionally seeking to sidestep ACA requirements. So much of this is going on under the radar. As counterintuitive as it may seem, we think ACA is actually creating jobs in significant numbers, while simultaneously reducing many workers from full-time (40 hrs+) to part-time (sub 30). 

 

The Numbers

Prior to revision, initial jobless claims fell 1k to 323k from 324k WoW, as the prior week's number was revised up by 3k to 327k.

 

The headline (unrevised) number shows claims were lower by 4k WoW. Meanwhile, the 4-week rolling average of seasonally-adjusted claims fell -6.25k WoW to 336.75k.

 

The 4-week rolling average of NSA claims, which we consider a more accurate representation of the underlying labor market trend, was -9.3% lower YoY, which is a sequential improvement versus the previous week's YoY change of -8.4%.

 

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Yield Spreads

The 2-10 spread rose 12.6 basis points WoW to 155 bps. 2Q13TD, the 2-10 spread is averaging 151 bps, which is lower by -17 bps relative to 1Q13.

 

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Joshua Steiner, CFA

 


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.33%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.49%

MNST – Category Softness and Higher Expenses Drive EPS Miss

MNST reported Q1 ’13 EPS yesterday evening, and if earnings season was a punch bowl, MNST would be an unwelcome addition to that receptacle.



The company missed on sales and EPS, against some admittedly very difficult comparisons, but comparisons don’t get any easier until 2H so we are staring down one more quarter of potentially similar quality before the optics improve on the earnings results.



We expect that the stock will trade below $50 per share this morning (versus a close near $57).  We see potentially one more quarter of EPS weakness relative to consensus (depending on where that shakes out over the next couple of days).  We start to get interested in MNST closer to $45 for investors with longer durations.

 

What we liked:

  • International sales grew 29.9%, taking up some of the slack for domestic top line weakness (profitability of sales outside the U.S. is an open issue)
  • Within a softer category, MNST continues to take share (category +2.8%, 13 week, all channel, MNST +7.1%, Red Bull +9.5%)
  • Even with potential negative incremental news flow, we continue to believe that virtually all of the lawsuits, etc. are just noise

What we didn’t like:

  • Missed EPS ($0.37 reported versus consensus of $0.46)
  • Sales growth of 6.5% (against a very difficult comparison, but Q2 is more difficult on a one-year basis, substantially easier on a two-year)
  • 13 week category numbers for all outlets increased just 2.8% for the energy drink category, including energy shots,  and Red Bull’s sales growth outpaces MNST
  • Gross margin declines of 100 bps
  • No leverage on sales growth – EBIT declined 15.0% on the modest sales growth number – impact by some one-time costs, but even adjusted no operating leverage
  • Despite significant growth in international markets, management commentary suggests that the energy drink category has slowed in some markets outside the U.S.
  • Negative news flow surrounding company’s products likely to continue

Bottom line, we are going to stay on the sidelines unless price becomes compelling (closer to $45) or consensus moves closer to our estimates for the next quarter.

 

Call with questions,

 

Rob

 

Robert Campagnino

Managing Director

HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT, LLC

E:

P:

 

Matt Hedrick

Senior Analyst


Job Strength and Market Highs

Client Talking Points

Jobless Claims

Once again, the employment picture shows signs of strength as today’s report of initial jobless claims checked in at 323,000 for the week. For followers of Hedgeye, we have been talking about an improved jobs environment for some time as part of our #GrowthAccelerating macro theme.

Strong Dollar, Lower Food Prices

With the SP500 up for the fifth consecutive day, hitting another all-time (which is a long-time) record closing high of 1632 (+14.4% year-to-date), Keith was selling all day as he watched the #Sohn2013 ideas roll on to the new tape. Three days ago we had 18% Cash in the Hedgeye Asset Allocation Model – this morning we have 32%. In other words, from a gross exposure perspective, we are raising some cash now.

Asset Allocation

CASH 32% US EQUITIES 15%
INTL EQUITIES 15% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 10% INTL CURRENCIES 28%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
IGT

Decent earnings visibility, stabilized market share, and aggressive share repurchases should keep a floor on the stock.  Near-term earnings, potentially big orders from Oregon and South Dakota, and news of proliferating gaming domestically could provide near term catalysts for a stock that trades at only 11x EPS.  We believe that multiple is unsustainably low – and management likely agrees given the buyback – for a company with the balance sheet and strong cash flow as IGT.  Given private equity’s interest in WMS (they lost out to SGMS) – a company similar to IGT that unlike IGT generates little free cash – we wouldn’t rule out a privatizing transaction to realize the inherent value in this company.  

WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow.  

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

“Rumors of a low-cost iPhone heat up as a key Apple supplier goes on a hiring spree.” -- @CNET

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“We are what we believe we are.” – C.S. Lewis

STAT OF THE DAY

323,000, this week’s Jobless Claims Number


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – May 9, 2013     


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 34 points or 1.70% downside to 1605 and 0.39% upside to 1639.

                                                                                               

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1A

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.57 from 1.55
  • VIX  closed at 12.66 1 day percent change of -1.33%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: Bank of England monetary policy cmte decision
  • 8am: Fed’s Lacker speaks on financial stability in New York
  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, May 4, est. 335k (prior 324k)
  • 8:45am:  Bloomberg U.S. Economic Survey, May
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, May 5
  • 10am: Wholesale Inventories, March, est. 0.4% (prior -0.3%)
  • 10am: Wholesale Sales, March. est.  0.1% (prior 1.7%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural-gas storage change
  • 11am: Fed to purchase $1b-$1.5b TIPS in 2017-2043 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $16b 30Y bonds
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Plosser speaks on monetary policy in New York

GOVERNMENT:

    • 9am: House Homeland Security hears from Boston Police
    • Commissioner Edward Davis on Boston bombings
    • 9:15am: Senate Environment Cmte hears from EPA administrator nominee Gina McCarthy at confirmation hearing
    • 10:30am: FCC holds open meeting to consider proposed rules to improve broadband access on airplanes and on access to spectrum for commercial space launch operators
    • 11am: Congressional-Executive Commission on China holds discussion on re-education through labor with Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, Rep. Chris Smith, R-N.J.

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Buffett’s MidAmerican plans $1.9b of wind farms in Iowa
  • Boeing supplier resumes 787 cell output, forecasts profit jump
  • JPMorgan says watchdog may seek to punish units, workers
  • BlackRock vote on Dimon’s future highlights links to JPMorgan
  • Rambus fined $250m in Hynix patent-infringement case
  • CFTC said to weigh lower price-quote in Dodd-Frank swap rule
  • Facebook in talks to buy Waze for up to $1b: Calcalist
  • Microsoft offering $1b for Nook’s digital assets: TechCrunch
  • Hess said to seek $1.5b for Thailand, Indonesia assets
  • Eni sells as much as $2b stake in gas network Snam
  • Highfields’ Jacobson: Digital Realty is stock to sell short
  • Gundlach says short Chipotle on unimpressive earnings growth
  • Softbank says deal can save Sprint $3b a year by 2017
  • Disney said to tell advertisers of live ABC app in mobile push
  • Sony says weak yen, games to drive sales; TVs to turn profit
  • Vestia asks court to void $924m of Credit Suisse swaps
  • China passenger-vehicle sales rise 13% in April, beat ests.
  • Bangladesh plant fire kills 8; Rana Plaza death toll hits 921
  • Millennial Media CEO says now not time to sell co.

EARNINGS:

    • Precision Castparts (PCP) 6am, $2.75
    • AES (AES) 6am, $0.28
    • Bombardier (BBD/B CN) 6am, $0.08
    • TELUS (T CN) 6am, $0.54 - Preview
    • MEMC Electronic Materials (WFR) 6am, $(0.14)
    • DISH Network (DISH) 6am, $0.53
    • EchoStar (SATS) 6am, $(0.06)
    • Visteon (VC) 6am, $0.88
    • Windstream (WIN) 6:15am, $0.11
    • Cineplex (CGX CN) 6:15am, C$0.24
    • Paladin Labs (PLB CN) 6:30am, C$0.53
    • Carlyle Group (CG) 6:30am, $0.96
    • MAXIMUS (MMS) 6:30am, $0.70
    • Manitoba Telecom Services (MBT CN) 6:30am, C$0.54
    • Starz-Liberty Capital (STRZA) 6:45am, $0.49
    • BCE (BCE CN) 7am, C$0.71 - Preview
    • Harsco (HSC) 7am, $0.05
    • Dean Foods (DF) 7am, $0.27
    • Walter Investment Management (WAC) 7am, $0.41
    • DENTSPLY International (XRAY) 7am, $0.56
    • WhiteWave Foods (WWAV) 7am, $0.15
    • Laredo Petroleum Holdings (LPI) 7am, $0.12
    • Rentech Nitrogen Partners (RNF) 7am, $0.54
    • Agrium (AGU CN) 7:15am, $1.08 - Preview
    • FTI Consulting (FCN) 7:30am, $0.50
    • Kosmos Energy (KOS) 7:30am, $0.07
    • Suburban Propane Partners (SPH) 7:30am, $2.50
    • Cominar REIT (CUF-U CN) 7:30am, C$0.44
    • Alere (ALR) 7:30am, $0.52
    • Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB) 7:35am, $0.66
    • Teekay (TK) 8am, $(0.20)
    • Baytex Energy (BTE CN) 8am, C$0.22
    • Teekay LNG Partners (TGP) 8am, $0.46
    • TreeHouse Foods (THS) 8am, $0.70
    • Teekay Offshore Partners (TOO) 8am, $0.26
    • Apache (APA) 8am, $2.21 - Preview
    • NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) 8am, $(0.13)
    • Brookfield Asset Management (BAM/A CN) 8am, $0.31
    • Crescent Point Energy (CPG CN) 8am, C$0.20
    • Canadian Tire (CTC/A CN) 8:07am, C$0.89
    • Dorel Industries (DII/B CN) 8:27am, $0.86
    • Coeur d’Alene Mines (CDE) 8:28am, $0.14
    • Cablevision Systems (CVC) 8:30am, $0.04
    • Granite Construction (GVA) 8:30am, $(0.22)
    • AMC Networks (AMCX) 8:30am, $0.79
    • Industrial Alliance Insurance (IAG CN) 9am, C$0.79
    • Stantec (STN CN) 9am, C$0.63
    • Inland Real Estate (IRC) 9:30am, $0.22
    • Inter Pipeline Fund (IPL-U CN) 11:19am, C$0.26
    • Diodes (DIOD) 4pm, $0.02
    • Assured Guaranty (AGO) 4pm, $0.71
    • Sotheby’s (BID) 4pm, $(0.12)
    • Salix Pharmaceuticals (SLXP) 4pm, $0.66
    • MannKind (MNKD) 4pm, $(0.13)
    • Air Lease (AL) 4pm, $0.38
    • Amarin (AMRN) 4pm, $(0.40)
    • Stifel Financial (SF) 4:01pm, $0.57
    • Air Methods (AIRM) 4:01pm, $(0.15)
    • priceline.com (PCLN) 4:01pm, $5.27
    • Allscripts Healthcare Solutions (MDRX) 4:01pm, $0.14
    • Molycorp (MCP) 4:01pm, $(0.30) - Preview
    • PDL BioPharma (PDLI) 4:02pm, $0.36
    • CareFusion (CFN) 4:02pm, $0.53
    • Sapient (SAPE) 4:05pm, $0.13
    • ExactTarget (ET) 4:05pm, $(0.10)
    • Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • Osisko Mining (OSK CN) 4:05    pm    , C$0.06
    • Medivation (MDVN) 4:09pm, $(0.40)
    • Advisory Board (ABCO) 4:10pm, $0.16
    • Universal Display (PANL) 4:11pm, $(0.10)
    • Nektar Therapeutics (NKTR) 4:15pm, $(0.43)
    • Nortek (NTK) 4:15pm, no est.
    • Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI) 4:15pm, $0.41
    • NVIDIA (NVDA) 4:19pm, $0.15
    • Pembina Pipeline (PPL CN) 4:21pm, C$0.28
    • Darling International (DAR) 4:30pm, $0.27
    • Nelnet (NNI) 4:35pm, $1.27
    • Public Storage (PSA) 5:09pm, $1.62
    • Great Plains Energy (GXP) 5:15pm, $0.12
    • AuRico Gold (AUQ CN) Aft-mkt, $0.05
    • Bright Horizons Family Solutions (BFAM) Aft-mkt, $0.22
    • Algonquin Power & Utilities (AQN CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.12
    • Dundee International REIT(DI-U CN) Aft-mkt, C$0.21

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Egypt’s Wheat Farmers Hobbled by Fuel Shortages as Silos Run Low
  • Corn Drought Easing Boosts Reserves Most Since 1960: Commodities
  • Gold Declines as ETF Withdrawals Continue and Commodities Fall
  • Brent Declines for Third Day as U.S. Crude Stockpiles Increase
  • Copper Slides Most in a Week as China Inflation Misses Estimates
  • Corn Swings Before USDA Report Predicted to Show Higher Supply
  • Iraq Resumes Northern Crude Exports via Turkey After Sabotage
  • Carbon Market Champions Undeterred by Kyoto Dead-End, EU Says
  • Sugar Falls to 3-Month Low on Sales From Thailand; Cocoa Drops
  • China Steel Production Rose to Record 89.6 Mt in March: BI Chart
  • Gasoline Imports Shrink in Mideast on Refineries: Energy Markets
  • China Dowry Filled With Gold Signals Gains for Jewelers: Retail
  • Rebar Drops as Producer Price Decline Boosts Concern on Economy
  • World Food Prices Rise as Drought Hurts New Zealand Dairies

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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