prev

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

Key Takeaways:

 

European Financial CDS - Europe's financial system continues to heal, in spite of the occasional headline to the contrary. With the exception of one Greek bank, all European Financials saw swaps tighten. Big moves came in Spain, Italy, France and the U.K. 

 

---

 

European Financial CDS - With the exception of one Greek bank, all European Financials saw swaps tighten. Big moves came in Spain, Italy, France and the U.K. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable - pp. banks

 

Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were tighter around the globe last week with the largest improvements coming in Portugal (-40 bps), Spain (-25 bps), and Italy (-20 bps). The U.S. tightened by 2 bps to 32 bps, while Germany and Japan were unchanged.

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable - pp. sov1

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable - pp. sov2

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable - pp. sov3

 

Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 13 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable - pp. euribor

 

ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – Deposits were relatively unchanged week-over-week. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

European Banking Monitor: Credit Markets Get Even More Comfortable - pp. facility


Burning The Yen

The value of the Japanese Yen continues to plummet thanks to the monetary policies of the Bank of Japan. The Yen is losing ground against the US dollar this morning, falling below our TREND line of support at 97.11. We'll look for a bounce to short it.

 

Burning The Yen - FXYYTD


Morning Reads From Our Sector Heads

Keith McCullough (CEO):

 

Yen Falls 3rd Day on Signs U.S. Economy Improving; Ringgit Rises (via Bloomberg)

 

Dinosaur Skeleton to Be Returned to Mongolia (via NY Times)

 

Kevin Kaiser (Energy):

 

Twilight of a Stock-Market Darling (via Barron's)

 

Matthew Hedrick (Europe):

 

Sweden a Crisis Casualty No More Shows How to Get Haven Glow (via Bloomberg)

 

Josh Steiner (Financials):

 

Bank of America Settlement Clears Hurdle (via WSJ)

 

N.Y. Plans Homeowner Enforcement Against Financial Firms (via Bloomberg)

 

Jamie Dimon might find strength in surrendering (via STL Post-Dispatch)

 

Brian McGough (Retail):


ILO Formulates Plan for Worker Safety as Rana Plaza Death Toll Increases (via WWD)

 

 

 

 

 






Attention Students...

Get The Macro Show and the Early Look now for only $29.95/month – a savings of 57% – with the Hedgeye Student Discount! In addition to those daily macro insights, you'll receive exclusive content tailor-made to augment what you learn in the classroom. Must be a current college or university student to qualify.

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE

Takeaway: The positive correlation between plunging high yield rates and sinking muni default risk continues, for now. All systems remain go.

Key Takeaways:

 

* XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Risk reward appears to be short term negatively asymmetric. Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.7% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.5% downside to TRADE support.

 

* Markit MCDX Index – The decline in muni risk is relentless. Last week spreads tightened a further 16 bps in the 16-v1 series MCDX, ending the week at 42.5 bps versus 59.2 bps the prior week. The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps.  

 

* High Yield (YTM) – The market continues to jump into the HY pool head first, as rates fell 27 bps last week, ending the week at 5.27% versus 5.53% the prior week. 

 

European Financial CDS - Europe's financial system continues to heal, in spite of the occasional headline to the contrary. With the exception of one Greek bank, all European Financials saw swaps tighten. Big moves came in Spain, Italy, France and the U.K. 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 • Short-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 0 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 2 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 • Long-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 0 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 15

 

1. U.S. Financial CDS -  Aside from MBIA, all domestic financials tightened. MS, GS and BofA tightened by 12, 10 and 10 bps, respectively. Mortgage Insurers continued their relentless advance, dropping by 42 and 35 bps, respectively (MTG & RDN). Overall, swaps tightened for 26 out of 27 domestic financial institutions.

 

Tightened the most WoW: ALL, AXP, SLM

Widened the most/ tightened the least WoW: MBI, CB, TRV

Tightened the most WoW: RDN, MTG, AXP

Widened the most/ tightened the least MoM: MBI, PRU, MMC

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 1

 

2. European Financial CDS - With the exception of one Greek bank, all European Financials saw swaps tighten. Big moves came in Spain, Italy, France and the U.K. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 2

 

3. Asian Financial CDS - Indian banks saw sharp drops in credit default swap premiums. Chinese banks were narrowly tighter, while Japanese banks were mostly unchanged. Daiwa and Nomura, however, both saw swaps drop by 10 and 9 bps, respectively.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 17

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were tighter around the globe last week with the largest improvements coming in Portugal (-40 bps), Spain (-25 bps), and Italy (-20 bps). The U.S. tightened by 2 bps to 32 bps, while Germany and Japan were unchanged.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 18

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 3

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 4

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates fell 26.8 bps last week, ending the week at 5.27% versus 5.53% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 5

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index rose 3.6 points last week, ending at 1799.64.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 6

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread rose 0.4 basis points last week, ending the week at 22.71 bps this week versus last week’s print of 22.26 bps.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 7

 

8. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index fell -0.7 points, ending the week at 4.63 versus 5.3 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 8

 

9. Euribor-OIS Spread – The Euribor-OIS spread tightened by 1 bps to 13 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 9

 

10. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – Deposits were relatively unchanged week-over-week. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 10

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – Last week spreads tightened 16 bps, ending the week at 42.5 bps versus 59.2 bps the prior week. The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 11

 

12. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China fell 0.1% last week, or 3 yuan/ton, to 3571 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 12

 

13. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread tightened to 146 bps, -1 bps tighter than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 13

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.7% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.5% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: CREDIT MARKETS GET EVEN MORE COMFORTABLE - 14

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA


Making Moves

Client Talking Points

The 10-Year Fight

Treasuries are widely held and people put on massive positions in the 10-year as a flight to safety or whatever you feel like calling it. The point  is that at 1.75% yield, more people are hooked on being safe then on getting out there and buying growth directly via XLY or XLP. We'll see what happens with the 10-year this week.

Burning The Yen

Tough cookies for the Japanese Yen yet again. The country's currency will continue to be debauched. 99.36 vs the USD after we saw the USD/YEN cross test and fail at our 1st line of 97.11 TRADE support; no legitimate resistance (or policy shift to stop it) for that cross to 110 according to KM. Better watch out and you better not complain about FXY holdings. 

Asset Allocation

CASH 18% US EQUITIES 26%
INTL EQUITIES 20% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 6% INTL CURRENCIES 30%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
IGT

Decent earnings visibility, stabilized market share, and aggressive share repurchases should keep a floor on the stock.  Near-term earnings, potentially big orders from Oregon and South Dakota, and news of proliferating gaming domestically could provide near term catalysts for a stock that trades at only 11x EPS.  We believe that multiple is unsustainably low – and management likely agrees given the buyback – for a company with the balance sheet and strong cash flow as IGT.  Given private equity’s interest in WMS (they lost out to SGMS) – a company similar to IGT that unlike IGT generates little free cash – we wouldn’t rule out a privatizing transaction to realize the inherent value in this company.

WWW

WWW is one of the best managed and most consistent companies in retail. We’re rarely fans of acquisitions, but the recent addition of Sperry, Saucony, Keds and Stride Rite (known as PLG) gives WWW a multi-year platform from which to grow. 

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view. 

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

"Don't whine about the market you want; risk manage the one you have" -@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"People who like this sort of thing will find this the sort of thing they like." -Abraham Lincoln

STAT OF THE DAY

S&P 500 is up +13.3% year-to-date - how higher can the market go?


Inflation Trepidation

This note was originally published at 8am on April 22, 2013 for Hedgeye subscribers.

“Our trepidation about Volcker’s appointment was later justified.”

-Jimmy Carter

 

That’s what the outgoing President of the United States had to say about Paul Volcker because, “on Thursday, September 25, 1980, the Federal Reserve Board had approved by unanimous vote a one percentage-point increase in the discount rate to 11 percent.”

 

“Former Fed Chairman, William McChesney Martin led the counter attack. He termed Carter’s comments “deplorable”… a “serious and unfortunate thing”, and added … partisan politics ought not to be around the Dollar.” (Volcker: The Triumph of Persistance, pg 190)

 

Of course, by the time Carter was losing the election markets were already front-running the US shift in monetary policy. After hitting an all-time high in January of 1980 ($850/oz), Gold didn’t see those highs again for 3 decades. For Gold Bulls, that was a long-time to average down.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

To be balanced, according to the Gold Bulls of 2013, this time is different. Rather than acknowledging that the market has already discounted the greatest combination of deficit spending and money printing in US history, they’re digging in.

 

Gold isn’t trading on what they think it should trade on – it’s trading on both absolute and relative expectations vs the US Dollar:

 

1.   ABSOLUTE: On the monetary policy side, no iQe5 upgrade of Gold is coming out of Jackson Hole this year (Bernanke isn’t even going to be there). And on the fiscal side, sequestration combined with US Consumption #GrowthAccelerating, is USD bullish.

 

2.   RELATIVE: Japan is going to print to infinity and beyond and the probability of the Europeans cutting to 0% is rising. Both are bullish for the US Dollar relative to the Yen and the Euro. What’s bullish for the USD remains bearish for Gold.

 

Last week was another reminder of that:

  1. US DOLLAR = +0.9% on the week (up for the 7th week in the last 10 and +4% for 2013 YTD)
  2. CRB Commodities Index = -1.4% on the week (down for the 8th week in the last 10 and -4% for 2013 YTD)
  3. GOLD and SILVER = down -7% and -13% last week, respectively (taking Gold’s YTD decline to -16.9%)

All the while, the Gold Bulls continue to say almost the opposite of what we have been ranting about for 6 months. Paulson & Co. wrote to their investors that central bank “stimulus will eventually lead to inflation.” But that’s my point, eventually already happened.

 

We already had the greatest commodity inflation in world history. If the most asymmetric long-term move in all of Global Macro continues higher from here (#StrongDollar), this will continue to be an epic #CommodityDeflation, not inflation.

 

Don’t take my word for it – ask Mr Market, what was priced in when Bernanke said he’d go to infinity and beyond (6 months ago)?

  1. Silver is down -29% in the last 6 months
  2. Rubber is down -25% in the last 6 months
  3. Japanese Yen is down -25% in the last 6 months 

Again, if you get the US Dollar right, you’ll get a lot of other big things right. There are plenty of other ways to make money on this other than being short Gold and Copper Miners (we remain short Freeport, FCX, btw):

  1. Emerging Markets (EEM)
  2. Russian Stocks (RSX)
  3. Peruvian Stocks (EPU)

Peruvian stocks? You have to be kidding me Mucker. Who the heck do you think you are making calls on Peru – what’s next, Peruvian Par Bonds? Ha! Actually Peru just dipped inside of Russia for the world’s 2nd worse performing stock market YTD (Cyprus is the worst at -15%).

 

The reason why you shouldn’t have your 401k choking on Peru is the same as why you shouldn’t have it stuffed with Gold, Silver, or Corn. Peru a commodity economy (85% of exports) and its stock market is 37% indexed to Basic Material and Energy stocks.

 

As a point of reference, only 13% of the SP500 is in Basic Materials and Energy.  And we don’t want you to be long those S&P Sectors (XLB and XLE) either. Energy (XLE) led USA’s losers last week at -4.4%, only to be outpaced by Russian stocks (on the downside) at -4.9%!

 

How important is it for a Global Macro investor to get the world’s reserve currency right? Is it all interconnected? If you invest in Global Macro, do you have to get growth and inflation right too? We think the answers to these basic questions are self evident. That’s why we built our proprietary Growth/Inflation/Policy (GIP) Model.

 

That’s also why our views on growth and inflation have been different from consensus for a long time now. We get the #GrowthSlowing via US Dollar Debauchery inflation call (it’s a call we made consistently from 2007-2012). And when you see this week’s US preliminary GDP Growth print (Friday), sequentially in Q113 you’ll see #GrowthAccelerating as #CommodityDeflation takes hold too.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, EUR/USD, UST 10yr Yield, VIX, and the SP500 are now $1284-1454, $96.02-101.62, $82.41-83.14, 97.12-101.06, $1.29-1.31, 1.68-1.76%, 14.05-18.69, and 1532-1568, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Inflation Trepidation - Chart of the Day

 

Inflation Trepidation - Virtual Portfolio


GET THE HEDGEYE MARKET BRIEF FREE

Enter your email address to receive our newsletter of 5 trending market topics. VIEW SAMPLE

By joining our email marketing list you agree to receive marketing emails from Hedgeye. You may unsubscribe at any time by clicking the unsubscribe link in one of the emails.

next