THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – April 1, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 16 points or 0.84% downside to 1556 and 0.18% upside to 1572.            

                                                                                                                   

SECTOR PERFORMANCE


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

 

EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10a


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.62 from 1.61
  • VIX  closed at 12.7 1 day percent change of -3.42%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI Final, March, est. 55.2
  • 10am: Construction Spending M/m, Feb., est. 0.8% (prior -2.1%)
  • 10am: ISM Manufacturing, March, est. 54.2 (prior 54.2)
  • 10am: ISM Prices Paid, March, est. 59.5 (prior 61.5)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b in 2020-2023 sector
  • 11:30am: US to sell $35b 3-mo., $30b 6-mo. bills
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda

GOVERNMENT:

    • Washington Week Ahead
    • Rule governing high-risk loans takes effect; may change how FDIC-insured banks invest in CLOs
    • USTR releases annual assessments of global trade barriers, incl study on technical, health, safety trade restrictions
    • Homeland Security to begin cutting staffing hours
    • FAA will begin furloughing staff, closing more than 230 control towers at smaller and midsize airports

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Federal court judge dismisses civil claims against U.S. banks over Libor manipulation; rules some commodities-related suits may proceed
  • Verizon sued for $2.85b in debt, interest from Idearc spinoff
  • Dell said to consider Blackstone LBO with CEO guarantee
  • Proxy statement has PC sales falling by $10b over 4 years
  • Chesapeake names Dixon acting CEO, to hold conf. call on ops
  • Beijing, Shanghai boost home curbs as China acts to cool mkt
  • Wal-Mart to spend 500m yuan ungrading Chinese stores, China National Radio says
  • All Nippon Airways plans for June restart of Dreamliner flights
  • Boeing canceled test flight of 787, Seattle Times says
  • Cerberus may begin more formal steps in Freedom Group sale
  • Exxon to excavate Pegasus oil pipeline to find cause of leak
  • Google is biggest threat to TripAdvisor, CEO Steve Kaufer says in FT
  • Panasonic said to be under U.S. probe over bribery: WSJ
  • Apple iRadio may be introduced in summer 2013, AppleInsider says
  • Tesla turned profitable in 1Q; Model S sales exceeded forecast
  • Amazon buying Goodreads book-review site irks author group
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • BOJ Meeting, U.S. Jobs, China Index: Wk Ahead April 1-April 6

EARNINGS:

    • Cal-Maine Foods (CALM) 6:30am, $1.40

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • Corn Heads for Bear Market After U.S. Stockpiles Beat Estimates
  • Bullish Bets Rebound at Fastest Pace in Four Years: Commodities
  • Rubber Falls Into Bear Market as Stockpiles Swell, Demand Eases
  • Indonesia to Review Rubber Exports After Prices Tumble in Tokyo
  • Brent-WTI Crude Spread Widens as Exxon Shuts Pipe to Texas
  • Spot Gold Little Changed as Silver Nears Bear-Market Threshold
  • Copper Drops to 8-Month Low in Shanghai on China Manufacturing
  • Hedge Funds Backing $100 Crude Lift Bullish Bets: Energy Markets
  • Asia Gasoil Contango Narrows; Fuel Oil Crack Drops: Oil Products
  • Mitsubishi Materials to Cut First-Half Copper Output by 6.8%
  • Palm Oil Drops to Two-Month Low as Europe Crisis to Curb Demand
  • Russia Sets Minimum Prices for Grain Purchases for Stockpiles
  • China Manufacturing Rises at Faster Pace in March, Gauges Show
  • Coffee Exports From Indonesia’s Sumatra Fall as Inventories Drop

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 5

 

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

 

GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 3

 

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 4

 

EUROPEAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

 

 

The Hedgeye Macro Team

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


Did the US Economy Just “Collapse”? "Worst Personal Spending Since 2009"?

This is a brief note written by Hedgeye U.S. Macro analyst Christian Drake on 4/28 dispelling media reporting that “US GDP collapses to 0.7%, the lowest number in three years with the worst personal spending since 2009.”

read more

7 Tweets Summing Up What You Need to Know About Today's GDP Report

"There's a tremendous opportunity to educate people in our profession on how GDP is stated and projected," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote today. Here's everything you need to know about today's GDP report.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Crash Test Bear

In the past six months, U.S. stock indices are up between +12% and +18%.

read more

GOLD: A Deep Dive on What’s Next with a Top Commodities Strategist

“If you saved in gold over the past 20 to 25 years rather than any currency anywhere in the world, gold has outperformed all these currencies,” says Stefan Wieler, Vice President of Goldmoney in this edition of Real Conversations.

read more

Exact Sciences Up +24% This Week... What's Next? | $EXAS

We remain long Exact Sciences in the Hedgeye Healthcare Position Monitor.

read more

Inside the Atlanta Fed's Flawed GDP Tracker

"The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNowcast model, while useful at amalgamating investor consensus on one singular GDP estimate for any given quarter, is certainly not the end-all-be-all of forecasting U.S. GDP," writes Hedgeye Senior Macro analyst Darius Dale.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Acrophobia

"Most people who are making a ton of money right now are focused on growth companies seeing accelerations," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough wrote in today's Early Look. "That’s what happens in Quad 1."

read more

People's Bank of China Spins China’s Bad-Loan Data

PBoC Deputy Governor Yi says China's non-performing loan problem has “pretty much stabilized." "Yi is spinning. China’s bad-debt problem remains serious," write Benn Steil and Emma Smith, Council on Foreign Relations.

read more

UnderArmour: 'I Am Much More Bearish Than I Was 3 Hours Ago'

“The consumer has a short memory.” Yes, Plank actually said this," writes Hedgeye Retail analyst Brian McGough. "Last time I heard such arrogance was Ron Johnson."

read more

Buffalo Wild Wings: Complacency & Lack of Leadership (by Howard Penney)

"Buffalo Wild Wings has been plagued by complacency and a continued lack of adequate leadership," writes Hedgeye Restaurants analyst Howard Penney.

read more

Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands Earnings

"The quarter actually beat lowered expectations. Overall, the mass segment performed well although base mass lagging is a concern," writes Hedgeye Gaming, Lodging & Leisure analyst Todd Jordan on Las Vegas Sands.

read more

An Update on Defense Spending by Lt. Gen Emo Gardner

"Congress' FY17 omnibus appropriation will fully fund the Pentagon's original budget request plus $15B of its $30B supplemental request," writes Hedgeye Potomac Defense Policy analyst Lt. Gen Emerson "Emo" Gardner USMC Ret.

read more