How Many Corn Acres Get Planted This Year?

At noon today the USDA will issue its March planting intentions for the 2013 U.S. growing season.  We will focus on corn, as per usual.  Consensus calls for 97.465 million acres of corn to be planted this year, and we think there may be modest upside to that number.  That’s a big number, not an all time high, but it is the largest acreage that anyone that didn’t vote for FDR has seen.

Obviously, the yield is the key number going forward, and we think the soil moisture condition has shown some improvement in recent weeks, though still below where it should be for this time of the year.  However, the forecast is for some weather events over the next several weeks in a couple of regions where moisture is needed, so we remain encouraged.

However, one additional concern that we have beyond moisture at this point is that planting may be delayed – farmers don’t need to rush out and the ground is still too cold in many regions for planting to begin.  If the weather turns cold, early planted corn can rot as the re-frozen field melts and warms.


The good news is that planting can happen very quickly in the right conditions, so we aren’t all that worried if it appears that the crop is getting in the ground too slowly.


We continue to think that ADM represents an inexpensive look at the progress of the U.S. corn crop – we see downside in the name back toward book value ($29.05 per share).  Keep in mind, that as much as a disaster the U.S. corn crop was last year and the associated negative impact it had on ethanol and merchandise and handling margins at ADM, the company still managed to earn $2.25.  If things break “right” with the corn crop and incremental acres produce a “reasonable” yield (anything above 145 bushels per acre), we see upside in ADM toward $38/$39 per share.


How Many Corn Acres Get Planted This Year? - Corn Acreage


Call with questions,




Robert  Campagnino

Managing Director





Matt Hedrick

Senior Analyst

SECTOR SPOTLIGHT | Live Q&A with Healthcare Analyst Tom Tobin Today at 2:30PM ET

Join us for this edition of Sector Spotlight with Healthcare analyst Tom Tobin and Healthcare Policy analyst Emily Evans.

read more

Ouchy!! Wall Street Consensus Hit By Epic Short Squeeze

In the latest example of what not to do with your portfolio, we have Wall Street consensus positioning...

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Bulls Leading the People

Investors rejoiced as centrist Emmanuel Macron edged out far-right Marine Le Pen in France's election day voting. European equities were up as much as 4.7% on the news.

read more

McCullough: ‘This Crazy Stat Drives Stock Market Bears Nuts’

If you’re short the stock market today, and your boss asks why is the Nasdaq at an all-time high, here’s the only honest answer: So far, Nasdaq company earnings are up 46% year-over-year.

read more

Who's Right? The Stock Market or the Bond Market?

"As I see it, bonds look like they have further to fall, while stocks look tenuous at these levels," writes Peter Atwater, founder of Financial Insyghts.

read more

Poll of the Day: If You Could Have Lunch with One Fed Chair...

What do you think? Cast your vote. Let us know.

read more

Are Millennials Actually Lazy, Narcissists? An Interview with Neil Howe (Part 2)

An interview with Neil Howe on why Boomers and Xers get it all wrong.

read more

6 Charts: The French Election, Nasdaq All-Time Highs & An Earnings Scorecard

We've been telling investors for some time that global growth is picking up, get long stocks.

read more

Another French Revolution?

"Don't be complacent," writes Hedgeye Managing Director Neil Howe. "Tectonic shifts are underway in France. Is there the prospect of the new Sixth Republic? C'est vraiment possible."

read more

Cartoon of the Day: The Trend is Your Friend

"All of the key trending macro data suggests the U.S. economy is accelerating," Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough says.

read more

A Sneak Peek At Hedgeye's 2017 GDP Estimates

Here's an inside look at our GDP estimates versus Wall Street consensus.

read more

Cartoon of the Day: Green Thumb

So far, 64 of 498 companies in the S&P 500 have reported aggregate sales and earnings growth of 6.1% and 16.8% respectively.

read more