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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – March 4, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 32 points or 1.07% downside to 1502 and 1.04% upside to 1534.            

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE


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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.62 from 1.61
  • VIX  closed at 15.36 1 day percent change of -0.97%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8am: Fed’s Yellen speaks in Washington
  • 9:45am: ISM New York, Feb. (prior 56.7)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b notes in 2036-2043 sector
  • 11:30am: U.S. to sell $35b 3-mo. bills, $30b 6-mo. bills
  • 11:45am: Former Fed Chairman Volcker speaks in Washington
  • 1:15pm: Fed’s Powell speaks in Washington
  • U.S. Rates Weekly Agenda

GOVERNMENT:

    • This week, agencies implement automatic budget cuts, House may take up continuing resolution to keep govt funded
    • IAEA board convenes in Vienna to discuss Iran
    • Institute of International Bankers conference; speakers include Under Sec. of Treasury Mary J. Miller, Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, Comptroller of the Currency Thomas Curry, CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler, FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg
    • Washington Week Ahead 

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Obama calls lawmakers to seek ways to recast budget cuts
  • Euro leaders demand austerity; Italy moves closer to vote
  • Las Vegas Sands says it probably violated FCPA
  • Buffett plans acceleration of Berkshire capital spending
  • Buffett plans to boost stake in IBM; says yr was subpar
  • Transocean board seeks $2.24/shr div; Icahn wanted >$4
  • Kuroda pledges bolder action as BoJ governor
  • Samsung to seek further review as Apple damages cut ~45%
  • Genting to buy unfinished Las Vegas Echelon resort from Boyd
  • China monetary tightening pressure eases as rebound slows
  • ‘Giant Slayer’ is wknd’s top film w/ $28m in NA sales
  • U.S. Weekly Agendas: Finance, Industrials, Energy, Health, Consumer, Tech, Media/Ent, Real Estate, Transports
  • North American M&A Agenda
  • Canada Weekly Agendas: Energy, Mining
  • U.S. Jobs, ECB Rate Meeting, Kenya Votes: Wk Ahead March 4-9

EARNINGS:

    • Yingli Green Energy (YGE) Pre-mkt, $(0.57)
    • Tech Data (TECD) 6am, $1.76
    • Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA) 7am, $(0.05)
    • Stratasys Ltd (SSYS) 7am, $0.38
    • Vermilion Energy (VET CN) 7am, C$0.53
    • Shuffle Entertainment (SHFL) 4pm, $0.12
    • Cninsure (CISG) 4pm, NA
    • Ascena Retail Group (ASNA) 4:02pm, $0.23
    • Santarus (SNTS) 4:05pm, $0.01
    • ABM Industries (ABM) 5pm, $0.22

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

  • WTI Oil Futures Decline for Third Day to Trade Near $90 a Barrel
  • Investors Least Bullish in Four Years Pulling Funds: Commodities
  • Gold Swings as Investors Weigh Economic Stimulus Against Dollar
  • Cocoa Falls to 10-Month Low on Ivory Coast Rainfall; Sugar Rises
  • Palm Oil Climbs as Worst Losing Streak Since 2006 Spurs Demand
  • Indonesian Palm Reserves Seen Declining by Bangun on Demand
  • Lead and Zinc Decline as China Property Curbs Could Damp Demand
  • Vietnam 2013 Rice Exports Reach 744,408 Tons as of Feb. 28: VFA
  • Angola to Start Cargo Rail Line From Luanda Port This Month
  • Keystone Report Spurs Opponents to Vow Stiffer Fight on Pipeline
  • Marathon Said to Join Oil CEO Search as Bid War Looms: Energy
  • U.S. Soybean Reserve Seen Lower in Survey; Grain Supply May Rise
  • Joblessness Down as Bernanke View of Cyclical U.S. Weakness Wins
  • Rubber Drops to Two-Month Low as China to Cool Property Prices

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CURRENCIES


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EUROPEAN MARKETS

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ASIAN MARKETS

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team