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BEST IDEAS CALL TODAY: Materials & Dial-in Info

 

BEST IDEAS CALL TODAY:  Materials & Dial-in Info - Best Ideas 2

 

Hedgeye Risk Management invites you to join us today, February 27th at 1:00pm EST for our Best Ideas Launch Part 2.

 

This call will be a follow-up to the introductory call of our dynamic Best Ideas Product which was held on February 11th. The new dynamic Best Ideas Product will track, update and notify clients of important changes and additions to the Hedgeye Best Ideas list.

  

On the call we will highlight our highest conviction calls across Financials, Industrials, Energy and Macro offering at least two high conviction and differentiated investment ideas from each vertical over an intermediate term duration.     

 

 

CALL DETAILS 

  • Date: Today, February 27th at 1:00pm EST
  • Toll Free Number:  
  • Direct Dial Number:     
  • Conference Code: 865921#

CLICK HERE to access the slides associated with this call. For more details please email .  
 

 

 SPEAKERS WILL INCLUDE

  • Financials - Josh Steiner
    • Part of the #1 ranked Institutional Investor and Greenwich Survey team at Lehman Brothers. Buy-side analyst at Amaranth Group & Millennium Partners.
  • Industrials - Jay Van Sciver
    • Co-Founder/Partner at Bishop & Carroll Capital Partners. 12 years as a financial analyst with buy-side coverage of the Industrials Sector. 
  • Energy - Kevin Kaiser
    • Covers the oil & gas sector with a focus on fundamental research on E&Ps, oilfield services, MLPs and refiners.  Princeton hockey alumnus.
  • Macro - Darius Dale
    • Senior Analyst covering Asia and Latin America on the Macro Team. Yale BA.

Buy American

Client Talking Points

Disaster Averted

So much for the end of the world. After the Italian election fiasco which tanked the market, we saw it rally yesterday to close at levels that were nearly the same before Berlusconi and Co. took over. We're not fleeing to "risk off" assets because of a down day in the market and thus, we are not buying Treasuries. We are short the Japanese Yen and will continue to use our levels and tried and true methodology to pick stocks using signals to tell us when the time is right.

Asset Allocation

CASH 40% US EQUITIES 20%
INTL EQUITIES 20% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 20%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
ASCA

We believe ASCA will receive a higher bid from another gaming competitor. Our valuation puts ASCA’s worth closer to $40.

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

HOLX
HOLX remains one of our favorite longer-term fundamental growth companies given growing penetration of its 3D Tomo platform and high leverage to the 2014 Insurance Expansion from the Affordable Care Act.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

"The difference between the $EATFY10 turnaround and the $DRIFY13 - $EAT rethought the buz model while $DRI is defending what has not worked" -@HedgeyeHWP

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"Who is rich? He that is content. Who is that? Nobody."  -Benjamin Franklin 

STAT OF THE DAY

The Commerce Department reported that total orders for goods meant to last more than three years slid 5.2%



Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.65%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.63%

Not This Week

“Not this week, thank God.”

-Dwight D. Eisenhower

 

That’s what the President of The United States said to one of his senior advisors “with beads of sweat on Eisenhower’s forehead during the tense debate over whether and when to intervene” in Vietnam in 1954. (Ike’s Bluff, pg 131)

 

As many of you know from your risk management experiences, it’s what you don’t do under pressure that often defines your performance. “Eisenhower was an expert in finding reasons for not doing things recalled Andrew Goodpaster.” (pg 130)

 

That’s why I study the history of great leadership. It helps me empathize with and learn from what Teddy Roosevelt called “the struggle” of other men and women when they were under pressure. It also gives me confidence in making decisions. That doesn’t always mean I’ll make the right call. It just means I’ll have known why I made it.

 

Back to the Global Macro Grind

 

Eisenhower’s legacy is that he didn’t let the French suck US casualties into Vietnam in 1954. He also avoided playing the end of the world card (releasing the bomb) during a time when plenty of Americans had US politicians (LBJ) freaking them out about outer space.

 

If the world ended this morning, I am pretty sure A) I wouldn’t be writing this and B) you wouldn’t be reading anything else. So, with that in mind, and the entire manic media focused on what is so 2010-2011 (Italian Bond auctions), what happened?

  1. Italian Bond Auction was better than “expected”, so bond yields fell, making another lower long-term high
  2. Italian Equities stopped going down right at our immediate-term TRADE oversold signal of 15,511 (MIB Index)
  3. US Equity Futures held onto yesterday’s gains; the 2nd up day in the last 3 (+4.9% YTD)

I’m not trying to be complacent about Italy’s economic risks (just don’t be long Italy, and get over it). I’m well aware of what Eisenhower himself coined as The Domino Theory. We made this call on Europe around this time in Q1 of 2010 don’t forget. It’s 2013, and  we don’t see Italy being the domino that knocks down our bull case for Asian and US Equities right now.

 

That could change. The plan is always changing. And when it does, I’ll be the first to let you know. But, for now, let’s focus on doing more of what we did when people were freaking out about Congress at the end of December:

  1. Buy Asian (China and Singapore) and US Stocks (EWS, CAF, XLF)
  2. Short US Treasuries (TLT)
  3. Short Japanese Yen (FXY)

Why buy American instead of Italian?

  1. US #Housing is ripping (New Home Sales shocked the bears to the upside yesterday with inventory falling, again!)
  2. US Employment #GrowthStabilizing (our rolling non-seasonally adjusted jobless claims model continues to be bullish)
  3. If you have to choose between a criminal, comedian, and Congress, I’d actually choose Congress

Yep, that’s how sad and embarrassing Italy’s #PoliticalClass has become. And neither France nor Japan are too far behind them.

 

So, if you are shorting Treasuries, can’t buy European or Japanese Sovereign Debt, and have to buy something else, why not Asian or American stocks? To be clear, I don’t have to buy anything. But when I do buy something, both the signal and research back it.

 

The last point I want to make this morning is about volatility expectations. I get the front-month VIX is different than the term-structure of volatility’s curve. Looking at expectations, across durations, will amplify my point:

  1. VIX (front-month) TREND resistance = 17.18, and that was only violated to the upside for ½ a day
  2. VIX topped on Monday at another lower long-term-high (on DEC28, 2012 the lower-high = 22.72)
  3. VIX was at 40 in Q1 of 2010 after we were legitimately concerned about European Dominos

As you can see in the Darius Dale’s Chart of The Day, front-month Volatility (VIX) continues to make a series of long-term lower highs as the volume of the manic media’s freak-outs make higher-highs. Think they’ll make the call on the end of the world, together?

 

If this is just a mini-mania of what you saw in November-December (substitute Italy for US Congress), what is it, specifically, that you have a as a catalyst that would stop the VIX from going straight back down to 12 from here?

 

It’s not going to 12 this week. I get that. But the VIX is probably not going back to 22.72 or 42.96 (the SEP2011 freak-out) this week either. If I see anything real developing that changes my view on this, I’ll just change my mind. I don’t have to do that yet, thank God.

 

Our immediate-term Risk Ranges for Gold, Oil (Brent), US Dollar, USD/YEN, UST10yr, Shanghai Composite, and the SP500 are now $1, $112.55-116.12, $81.12-82.23, 91.55-94.49, 1.84-1.96%, 2, and 1, respectively.

 

Best of luck out there today,

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Not This Week - Chart of the Day

 

Not This Week - Virtual Portfolio


THE M3: MGM CHINA POST-CNY; UNEMPLOYMENT; SMOKING BAN; INFLATION EASE

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 27, 2013

 

 

MGM CHINA SEES MACAU CASINO VIP BUSINESS PICK UP Bloomberg

VIP business has seen a “strong comeback” after the festival that ended on Feb. 17, Bill Hornbuckle, chief marketing officer of MGM Resorts, said in Macau today.  MGM China said it hasn’t seen any sign of a Chinese crackdown on the junkets.  “There’s never any real, concrete indication or direction from the government,” said Pansy Ho, chairman of MGM China and daughter of Stanley Ho. “Although the growth rate of VIP business may slow, I’m not aware of any crackdown.”  

 

Pansy Ho said she has no plan to cut her 27% stake in MGM China.

 

EMPLOYMENT SURVEY FOR NOVEMBER 2012-JANUARY 2013 DSEC

Macau unemployment for November 2012-January 2013 held stable at 1.9%.  Total labor force was 358,000; the labor force participation rate stood at 72.5%, up by 0.1%.  Total employment increased continuously, reaching 351,000 in November 2012-January 2013, an increase of 1,400 from the previous period. 

 

LAWMAKERS CALL FOR FULL CASINO SMOKING BAN Macau Business

Legislative Assembly members yesterday urged city officials to review the partial ban on smoking inside casinos as soon as possible, making them completely smoke-free.  The most vocal assembly member was Angela Leong On Kei, who is also an executive director of SJM.


A regular review of the ban is scheduled for 2015, but assembly members want it to be pushed forward. However, the head of the Health Bureau, Lei Chin Ion, said yesterday the review would only take place in 2015 as scheduled.  Lei said yesterday that the bureau detected 118 violations of the partial smoking ban in casinos between January 1 and February 20, 60% of which involved tourists.

 

VISITOR DROP TO HELP EASE INFLATION: TAM Macau Business

Secretary Francis Tam said that consecutive monthly declines in visitor arrivals could help ease Macau’s strong internal demand and consequently slow down inflation.  Tam said that strong purchasing power of tourists is the “main factor” pushing up the city’s internal demand.  


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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