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Quick thoughts on BUD and STZ into BUD EPS

Anheuser-Busch InBev is set to report Q4 earnings tomorrow morning – we don’t expect much in terms of surprises in the quarterly result.  Our estimate is broadly consistent with consensus – slightly lower on revenues (consensus is $10.26 billion), recognizing that the constant currency organic revenue comp in the lapping period is the most difficult comparison of ’11 (+5.7%).  We are close to consensus with our EBITDA estimate of $4.37 billion (consensus of $4.39 billion).



We don’t expect any material commentary on the proposed transactions between Anheuser-Busch InBev and Grupo Modelo.  Our view is that the parties, including the Department of Justice, continue to negotiate, and that the outcome will be consistent with our belief that the new transaction satisfies the concerns expressed by the DOJ when it filed suit to block the transaction.

 

Having said that, we recognize that the risk/reward profile on one of the parties to the transaction, STZ, is asymmetric.  We believe that STZ, with approval of the beer transaction, can continue to rerate toward $50/share.  However, there is a good bit of air underneath the name and even a 5% probability of further illogic on the part of the DOJ (downside to $30/share) makes us hesitant to be aggressive on STZ at this point.

 

ABI, on the other hand, still has significant free cash flow support (approximately $6 per share on 2012 numbers) and can be defended on weakness – which is exactly what we would do should any material weakness develop in the wake of the company’s Q4 earnings release.

 

Call with questions,

 

Rob

 

Robert Campagnino
Managing Director
HEDGEYE RISK MANAGEMENT, LLC

E:
P:

Matt Hedrick

Senior Analyst




Bullish TREND: SP500 Levels, Refreshed

Takeaway: The bullish intermediate-term TREND we have been amped up on for Asian and US Equities since late-November is still very much intact.

POSITIONS: 15 LONGS, 5 SHORTS @Hedgeye

 

After the biggest 1-day move in US Equity Volatility since August of 2011 (+39% intraday), the VIX is coming in fast today. If it continues to come in (and holds below my TREND line of 17.18) we may have just witnessed another government sponsored head-fake (#Italy).

 

Lower-highs in long-term volatility make as much sense as lower-highs in Gold and Treasuries. It’s all the same thing to me. People are freaking-out about what we didn’t have from March to November of 2012 – global growth. I still think Strong Dollar Commodity Deflation stabilizes that.

 

Across our core risk management durations, here are the lines that matter to me most:

 

  1. Immediate-term TRADE resistance = 1499
  2. Immediate-term TRADE support = 1479
  3. Intermediate-term TREND support = 1463

 

In other words, the bullish intermediate-term TREND we have been amped up on for Asian and US Equities since late-November is still very much intact. We are experiencing an immediate-term TRADE headwind however (1499 support is resistance until it is support again).

 

A close above 1499, puts the YTD highs (1530) back in play, probably as fast as yesterday’s lows were. Especially if the VIX breaks down hard in March (like it did after the late DEC government sponsored volatility scare – that time it was Congress).

 

KM

 

Keith R. McCullough
Chief Executive Officer

 

Bullish TREND: SP500 Levels, Refreshed - SPX


Reviewing Italian Election Results

This note was originally published February 25, 2013 at 17:32 in Macro

Yesterday's results (which are still being tabulated) suggest a hung parliament in Italy, with Berlusconi taking the upper house and Bersani winning the lower house. Given that both houses have equal powers, the stalemate suggests that today’s results will force Italy’s President to call for an interim government and another round of voting.

 

The results show that Italians voted against the fiscal reforms under Monti. The Italian 10YR yield increased 12bps versus to 4.49% and the spread versus German bunds increased 14bps as the EUR/USD fell -0.89% to $1.3076 on the day.

 

Broadly, today’s results show that economic uncertainty breeds political uncertainty, a case we seen time and time again across the Eurozone. We think this power vacuum should put upward pressure on Italian sovereign and bank spreads, a drag on the country's already weak economic fundamentals.

------

 

While final votes are still being tabulated, the key take-aways of today’s results are:

  • Strong support for Peppe Grillo and his anti-austerity party (The Five Star Movement, M5S) and increased support for Silvio Berlusconi’s center-right People of Liberty Party (particularly in the upper house) took needed support from Pier Lugi Bersani and his center-left Democratic Party alliance to led to a mixed upper and lower house result.
  • Since Grillo’s party is not looking to form a coalition with anyone, his support is simply creating a wedge in coalition building

In the Lower House (630 seats) -

  • Bersani took majority control, gaining some 340 seats, on 29.2% of the vote, according to projections
  • Berlusconi got 28.7% and 121 seats
  • Grillo received around 111 seats on 26.1%
  • Monti took a mere 8.4%

 

In the Upper House (315 seats) -

  • Berlusconi may have "won" the Senate race with 113 seats, according to RAI forecasts by gaining the key swing regions of Sicily, Campania and Lombardy
  • Bersani – 105 seats
  • Grillo – 63 seats
  • Monti – 20 seats

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst


Hedgeye Statistics

The total percentage of successful long and short trading signals since the inception of Real-Time Alerts in August of 2008.

  • LONG SIGNALS 80.64%
  • SHORT SIGNALS 78.57%

Housing: Rapid Growth

Since #GrowthStabilizing began in late November of last year, housing has been one of the leading drivers of recovery in the US economy. Today’s housing data is indicative that the recovery is still on fire and has no signs of letting up anytime soon. New home sales rose 15.6% month-over-month in January to 437,000; December data was revised up from 369k to 378k making the comp more impressive. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales in January are up 28.9%, which is the fastest rate of growth in the last 12 months. Impressive by all means.

 

Housing: Rapid Growth - nhs 1 normal

 

The inventory of new homes for sale was flat at 150k. When looking at inventory on a months supply basis, January stood at 4.1 months, down from 4.8 months in December and the lowest level of inventory since March, 2005. For perspective, months supply floated between 4-5 months from 1997-2005. We would expect to see inventory levels rise, as this reflects a strengthening market. We continue to believe that home prices are heading meaningfully higher in 2013. This morning's New Home Sales data, showing a rising sales rate and falling months supply of inventory, supports our thesis.

 

Housing: Rapid Growth - nhs 2 normal

 

Housing: Rapid Growth - nhs 3 normal

 

Housing: Rapid Growth - nhs 4 normal

 

Housing: Rapid Growth - nhs 6 normal


Proper Risk Management

Client Talking Points

Who Could Have Known?

Sometimes the market just likes to throw in a mid-day switch for good measure. In the case of yesterday, it looked like the S&P 500 was going to test YTD highs (1530) and instead, volatility cranked up and boom: the marker "tanked." We did some smart planning, like selling our short Yen (FXY) position and sold Utilities (XLU) on the high. No one could have predicted that the Italian election would have caused as much global chaos as it did yesterday. The Euro took a nosedive south and now our risk management signals are flashing bearish for the first time since a long time.

Asset Allocation

CASH 40% US EQUITIES 20%
INTL EQUITIES 20% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 20%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
ASCA

We believe ASCA will receive a higher bid from another gaming competitor. Our valuation puts ASCA’s worth closer to $40.

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

HOLX

HOLX remains one of our favorite longer-term fundamental growth companies given growing penetration of its 3D Tomo platform and high leverage to the 2014 Insurance Expansion from the Affordable Care Act.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

"Yesterday's 1-day move (up) in the VIX was the biggest since AUG2011" -@KeithMcCullough

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"A cynic is a man who, when he smells flowers, looks around for a coffin." -H.L. Mencken

STAT OF THE DAY

U.S. home prices rose in December, and saw the largest year-over-year gain since 2006. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite posted a nonseasonally adjusted 0.2% increase in December, following a 0.1% decline in November.


THE M3: VISITOR ARRIVALS; FOREIGN WORKER LEVY

The Macau Metro Monitor, February 26, 2013

 

 

MACAU VISITOR ARRIVALS DSEC

Visitor arrivals totaled 2,312,321, down by 6.1% YoY.  Mainland visitors totaled 1,473,785, with 616,066 travelling to Macau under the Individual Visit Scheme.  The average length of stay of visitors stood at 1.0 day, up by 0.1 day YoY.

 

THE M3: VISITOR ARRIVALS; FOREIGN WORKER LEVY - Macau123

 

EMPLOYERS TO PAY S$70 TO S$400 MORE IN FOREIGN WORKER LEVY Channel News Asia

Employers will have pay between S$70 and S$400 more in foreign worker levy within the next two years.  For work permit holders, the increase is steepest for the construction sector, of S$400 per worker.  




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