History suggests CCL could underperform over the next month
- The chart below shows the stock’s performance following the Carnival Splendor fire on 11/8/2010 as a comparison to the current Carnival Triumph fire.
- CCL underperformed for 3 weeks and it took the stock a month and a half to recover its losses vis a vis the S&P 500. However, the stock did recover, although some of that was earnings related.
- The publicity is much worse this time. Normally, we would buy the negativity but this kind of hype is likely to affect bookings for a period of time – potentially more damaging during the busy wave season - that could lengthen the stock’s recovery period.
