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#QuadrillYen Continues

Japan’s plan to devalue the Yen has worked well over the last three months, with the CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust ETF (FXY) falling -13.31% since then. Japanese Finance Minister and Prime Minister Taro Aso and Shinzo Abe have worked meticulously on “stabilizing” the Yen; if they continue down this path, they very well could get more than they bargained for.

 

#QuadrillYen Continues - YEN


European Banking Monitor: Short Term Risk Trumps Reward

Below are key European banking risk monitors, which are included as part of Josh Steiner and the Financial team's "Monday Morning Risk Monitor".  If you'd like to receive the work of the Financials team or request a trial please email .

 

European Financials CDS Monitor – European financials were wider across the board last week.

 

European Banking Monitor: Short Term Risk Trumps Reward  - bb. banks

 

Euribor-OIS spread – The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bp to 11 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

European Banking Monitor: Short Term Risk Trumps Reward  - bb.Euribor

 

ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – Deposits continue the secular decline. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

European Banking Monitor: Short Term Risk Trumps Reward  - bb. facility

 

Matthew Hedrick

Senior Analyst

 


Retail Call TODAY: Look Into Europe Pre-Earnings

Takeaway: REMINDER: Today we're hosting a call at 1pm to review European retail pre-EPS. Tickers include GPS, ANF, KORS, RL, URBN, DECK, GES, TIF, TJX

 

Retail Call TODAY: Look Into Europe Pre-Earnings - Retail europedial

We’d like to invite Hedgeye clients to participate in a call we are hosting on Monday February 4th to explore the state of retail in Europe in advance of 4Q retail earnings. We’ll be co-hosting the call with Stacey Widlitz of SW Advisors www.staceywidlitz.com where she will give us her view on incremental changes we’re seeing with different brands in Europe, including promotional cadence vs. last year, and general selling trends overall.  When we hosted a similar call with Stacey last quarter, her insights proved correct on GES, GPS and ANF. We’ll revisit those names, as well as the following on Monday…

 

KORS

PVH (Hilfiger)

COH

URBN

RL

DECK

TIF

TJX

LULU

local competition-Debenhams, John Lewis, Next, BHS, House of Fraser

fast fashion (Zara, H&A, Topshop)

 

We encourage you to send any questions in advance to , and we’ll be sure to both ask (anonymously) and answer for you on the call. Stacey will also be available for Hedgeye clients after the call to discuss trends in more detail.

 

We hope you can join us.

 


the macro show

what smart investors watch to win

Hosted by Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough at 9:00am ET, this special online broadcast offers smart investors and traders of all stripes the sharpest insights and clearest market analysis available on Wall Street.

Crushing It

Client Talking Points

Growth Games

With #GrowthStabilizing, you have two things happening: stocks are going up and bonds and commodities are getting crushed. We’ve seen the rally in stocks as the Dow hit 14,000 and the S&P 500 pole-vaulted past 1500. Treasuries, conversely, have been getting hammered and the yield on the 10-year ticked up to 2.05% this morning as fund flows continue to shift from bonds to stocks. With stocks up the last five weeks in a row, they show no sign of letting up soon. 

End Of The Golden Days

Goldbugs are an interesting breed. They keep insisting gold will always go up, until it doesn’t. Gold made a long-term lower-high in mid November at $1755/oz then snapped our intermediate-term TREND line of $1698 in early December. Last week, gold net long positions crashed to 82,081. Those bugs went selling their net long positions in Gold contracts to the tune of down -24% wk-over-wk. Like we said before, the Growth Game is bearish on bonds and gold, bullish for stocks.

Asset Allocation

CASH 46% US EQUITIES 15%
INTL EQUITIES 15% COMMODITIES 0%
FIXED INCOME 0% INTL CURRENCIES 24%

Top Long Ideas

Company Ticker Sector Duration
ASCA

We believe ASCA will receive a higher bid from another gaming competitor. Our valuation puts ASCA’s worth closer to $40.

FDX

With FedEx Express margins at a 30+ year low and 4-7 percentage points behind competitors, the opportunity for effective cost reductions appears significant. FedEx Ground is using its structural advantages to take market share from UPS. FDX competes in a highly consolidated industry with rational pricing. Both the Ground and Express divisions could be separately worth more than FDX’s current market value, in our view.

HOLX

HOLX remains one of our favorite longer-term fundamental growth companies given growing penetration of its 3D Tomo platform and high leverage to the 2014 Insurance Expansion from the Affordable Care Act.

Three for the Road

TWEET OF THE DAY

“08:16ET Herbalife subject of FTC investigation: NY Post” -@cbk_chi

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“It is by universal misunderstanding that all agree. For if, by ill luck, people understood each other, they would never agree.” -Charles Baudelaire

STAT OF THE DAY

The best start for US Equity flows since 1996 as stocks make multi-year highs.



MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD

Takeaway: Most of our risk measures remain benign, but rising commodities and higher taxes may be starting to exert some pressure.

Key Takeaways:

 

* Downside Trumps Upside in the Short Term: Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.5% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.8% downside to TRADE support.

 

* Yield Spreads Are Widening: Last week the 2-10 spread widened by 12 bps to 172 bps.

 

High Yield Backs Up: High yield rates rose 15 bps last week, ending the week at 5.96%.

 

* Muni Risk Continues to Fall: MCDX 16V-1 spreads fell 3 bps to 108 bps. 

 

* Chinese Steel Rises Further: Steel prices in China rose 0.7% last week, or 26 yuan/ton, to 3755 yuan/ton. 

 

Financial Risk Monitor Summary

 • Short-term(WoW): Negative / 2 of 12 improved / 5 out of 12 worsened / 6 of 12 unchanged

 • Intermediate-term(WoW): Positive / 7 of 12 improved / 2 out of 12 worsened / 4 of 12 unchanged

 • Long-term(WoW): Positive / 9 of 12 improved / 2 out of 12 worsened / 2 of 12 unchanged

 

1. American Financial CDS -  U.S. financial swaps were mixed with mortgage insurers and bond guarantors significantly wider WoW while the rest of the sector was flat to slightly tighter. 

 

Tightened the most WoW: ACE, AON, HIG

Widened the most WoW: MTG, AGO, GNW

Tightened the most WoW: GNW, AGO, MBI

Widened the most/ tightened the least MoM: COF, MTG, GS

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 1

 

2. European Financial CDS - European financials were wider across the board last week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 2

 

3. Asian Financial CDS - Chinese and Indian banks were generally higher, while Japanese financials were mixed.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 17

 

4. Sovereign CDS – Sovereign swaps were wider globally last week with Italy, Spain and Portugal leading the way.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 18

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 3

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 4

 

5. High Yield (YTM) Monitor – High Yield rates rose 15 bps last week, ending the week at 5.96% versus 5.81% the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 5

 

6. Leveraged Loan Index Monitor – The Leveraged Loan Index fell -4.2 points last week, ending at 1769.2.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 6

 

7. TED Spread Monitor – The TED spread was essentially unchanged last week, ending the week at 22.75 bps. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 7

 

8. Journal of Commerce Commodity Price Index – The JOC index rose 1.2 points, ending the week at 13.31 versus 12.1 the prior week.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 8

 

9. Euribor-OIS Spread– The Euribor-OIS spread widened by 1 bp to 11 bps. The Euribor-OIS spread (the difference between the euro interbank lending rate and overnight indexed swaps) measures bank counterparty risk in the Eurozone. The OIS is analogous to the effective Fed Funds rate in the United States.  Banks lending at the OIS do not swap principal, so counterparty risk in the OIS is minimal.  By contrast, the Euribor rate is the rate offered for unsecured interbank lending.  Thus, the spread between the two isolates counterparty risk. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 9

 

10. ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility – Deposits continue the secular decline. The ECB Liquidity Recourse to the Deposit Facility measures banks’ overnight deposits with the ECB.  Taken in conjunction with excess reserves, the ECB deposit facility measures excess liquidity in the Euro banking system.  An increase in this metric shows that banks are borrowing from the ECB.  In other words, the deposit facility measures one element of the ECB response to the crisis.  

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 10

 

11. Markit MCDX Index Monitor – Last week spreads tightened 3 bps, ending the week at 107.8 bps.The Markit MCDX is a measure of municipal credit default swaps. We believe this index is a useful indicator of pressure in state and local governments. Markit publishes index values daily on six 5-year tenor baskets including 50 reference entities each. Each basket includes a diversified pool of revenue and GO bonds from a broad array of states. We track the 16-V1. 

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 11

 

12. Chinese Steel – Steel prices in China rose 0.7% last week, or 26 yuan/ton, to 3755 yuan/ton. We use Chinese steel rebar prices to gauge Chinese construction activity, and, by extension, the health of the Chinese economy.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 12

 

13. 2-10 Spread – Last week the 2-10 spread widened to 172 bps, 12 bps wider than a week ago. We track the 2-10 spread as an indicator of bank margin pressure.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 13

 

14. XLF Macro Quantitative Setup – Our Macro team’s quantitative setup in the XLF shows 0.5% upside to TRADE resistance and 2.8% downside to TRADE support.

 

MONDAY MORNING RISK MONITOR: SHORT TERM RISK TRUMPS REWARD - 14

 

Joshua Steiner, CFA


Daily Trading Ranges

20 Proprietary Risk Ranges

Daily Trading Ranges is designed to help you understand where you’re buying and selling within the risk range and help you make better sales at the top end of the range and purchases at the low end.

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