THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK

TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 24, 2013


As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 17 points or 1.06% downside to 1479 and 0.08% upside to 1496.   

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


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CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.58 from 1.59
  • VIX  closed at 12.46 1 day percent change of 0.24%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 8:30am: Initial Jobless Claims, Jan. 19, est. 355k (prior 335k)
  • 8:30am: Continuing Claims, Jan. 12, est. 3.2m (prior 3.214m)
  • 8:58am: Markit US PMI, Jan. preliminary, est. 53 (prior 54)
  • 9:45am: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, Jan. 20 (prior -35.5)
  • 10am: Leading Indicators, Dec., est. 0.4% (prior -0.2%)
  • 10am: Freddie Mac mortgage rates
  • 10:30am: EIA natural gas storage change
  • 11am: DOE inventories
  • 11am: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing, Jan., est. 1 (prior -2)
  • 11am: Fed to buy $2.75b-$3.5b debt in 2020-2022 sector
  • 11am: U.S. Treasury to announce plans for sale of 2Y notes, 5Y notes, 7Y notes
  • 1pm: U.S. Treasury to sell $15b 10Y TIPS

GOVERNMENT:

    • Senate in session, House not in session
    • Nom. hearing for Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., as Sec of State
    • Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., to introduce gun legislation
    • U.S., Japan to sign amendment to bilateral income tax treaty
    • HHS, FDA meeting on public health benefits, risks of drugs containing hydrocodone, 8am
    • HHS, NIH meeting on H1N1/bird flu transmission and data management, 9am
    • Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Cmte hearing on mental health system in America, 10am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Apple plunges after sales forecast trails est.
  • Asian suppliers fall after Apple’s sales outlook
  • Commerzbank plans to cut as many as 6,000 jobs worldwide, Barclays said to plan 15% job cuts at Asian investment bank
  • Citigroup’s Corbat says pay environment to remain challenging
  • World Economic Forum in Davos continues
  • Delta Air Lines is talking to Airbus, Boeing on buying jets
  • Euro-area composite PMI contracts at slower pace than est.
  • Delphi considers ‘bolt-on’ acquisitions against paying dividend
  • North Korea threatens to conduct nuclear test
  • Three-month suspension of U.S. debt ceiling passed by House
  • FDA approves Roche’s Avastin with chemo for colorectal cancer

EARNINGS:

    • Cash America International (CSH) 6am, $1.20
    • Keycorp (KEY) 6am, $0.21
    • Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) 6am, $1.28
    • Knight Capital (KCG) 6am, $0.03
    • McCormick & Co (MKC) 6:30am, $1.14
    • Southwest Airlines Co (LUV) 6:45am, $0.07
    • Xerox (XRX) 6:51am, $0.29
    • AO Smith (AOS) 7am, $0.81
    • Colonial Properties Trust (CLP) 7am, $0.33
    • Hubbell (HUB/B) 7am, $1.20
    • International Speedway (ISCA) 7am, $0.56
    • National Penn Bancshares (NPBC) 7am, $0.17
    • Teledyne Technologies (TDY) 7am, $1.08
    • AmerisourceBergen (ABC) 7am, $0.67
    • Ametek (AME) 7am, $0.48
    • Baxter International (BAX) 7am, $1.26 - Preview
    • Celgene (CELG) 7am, $1.32
    • Dover (DOV) 7am, $1.07
    • EQT (EQT) 7am, $0.42
    • Raytheon (RTN) 7am, $1.31
    • EQT Midstream Partners (EQM) 7:05am, $0.40
    • Brunswick (BC) 7:30am, $(0.08)
    • Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS) 7:30am, $0.10
    • 3M Co (MMM) 7:30am, $1.41 - Preview
    • Timken Co (TKR) 7:30am, $0.62
    • Airgas (ARG) 7:30am, $1.07
    • Bristol-Myers Squibb Co (BMY) 7:30am, $0.42 - Preview
    • Kennametal (KMT) 7:30am, $0.64
    • Lockheed Martin (LMT) 7:30am, $1.82
    • United Continental Holdings (UAL) 7:30am, $(0.61)
    • Alaska Air Group (ALK) 8am, $0.71
    • Avnet (AVT) 8am, $0.83
    • Cypress Semiconductor (CY) 8am, $0.04
    • Meredith (MDP) 8am, $0.87
    • WW Grainger (GWW) 8am, $2.61
    • Janus Capital Group (JNS) 8am, $0.14
    • Precision Castparts (PCP) 8am, $2.47
    • Rayonier (RYN) 8am, $0.57
    • Union Pacific (UNP) 8am, $2.16
    • Coherent (COHR) 8:02am, $0.72
    • AVX (AVX) 8:30am, $0.15
    • Deluxe (DLX) 8:30am, $0.88
    • GATX (GMT) 8:30am, $0.54
    • OSI Systems (OSIS) 8:30am, $0.68
    • Old Republic International (ORI) 9am, $(0.05)
    • Informatica (INFA) 4pm, $0.37
    • Microsemi (MSCC) 4pm, $0.52
    • AT&T (T) 4:02pm, $0.45
    • Sterling Financial (STSA) 4pm, $0.52
    • Cirrus Logic (CRUS) 4pm, $1.41
    • JB Hunt (JBHT) 4pm, $0.70
    • Maxim Integrated (MXIM) 4pm, $0.41
    • Select Comfort (SCSS) 4:01pm, $0.32
    • Federated Investors (FII) 4:01pm, $0.40
    • Open Text (OTC CN) 4:01pm, $1.38
    • Flextronics (FLEX) 4:01pm, $0.20
    • Micros Systems (MCRS) 4:02pm, $0.58
    • Covance (CVD) 4:02pm, $0.71
    • Microsoft (MSFT) 4:02pm, $0.74
    • Starbucks (SBUX) 4:03pm, $0.57
    • VeriSign (VRSN) 4:04pm, $0.51
    • Cepheid (CPHD) 4:05pm, $(0.01)
    • E*Trade Financial (ETFC) 4:05pm, $(0.54)
    • Juniper Networks (JNPR) 4:05pm, $0.22
    • ResMed (RMD) 4:05pm, $0.52
    • Tempur-Pedic International (TPX) 4:05pm, $0.55
    • SVB Financial Group (SIVB) 4:14pm, $0.88
    • City National (CYN) 4:15pm, $1.00
    • Glacier Bancorp (GBCI) 4:15pm, $0.28
    • Synaptics (SYNA) 4:15pm, $0.45
    • KLA-Tencor (KLAC) 4:15pm, $0.56
    • QLogic (QLGC) 4:15pm, $0.17
    • Energen (EGN) 4:49pm, $0.74
    • Hancock Holding (HBHC) 5pm, $0.63
    • Iberiabank (IBKC) Late, $0.79

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)


GOLD – both Apple and Gold bulls will be as quiet as NFLX bears this morn; some serious pin action in names where consensus has very strong views; Our AAPL TAIL risk line of $561 remains intact (no position); Gold failed, fast, at $1692 TREND resistance yesterday, and Netflix, well, just look at it if you want to feel like it’s 1999.

  • Gold Seen Extending Rally as Fed’s QE3 to Last Through 2014
  • Sugar Rush Leaves U.S. With Biggest Glut in Decade: Commodities
  • Copper Declines as Codelco Adds to Indications of Ample Supply
  • Oil Trades Near One-Week Low on U.S. Supplies, Seaway Pipeline
  • Gold Drops to One-Week Low as Growth Outlook Curbs Haven Demand
  • Economist Gartman Sells Some WTI Oil and May Get Out Entirely
  • Iron Ore Seen Falling in Second Quarter as China Restocking Ends
  • Robusta Coffee Advances on Stockpiles, Vietnam Crop; Cocoa Gains
  • Brazil Sugar at Ports Rises 23% as Ships Head to Algeria, India
  • China Tracks Errol Flynn to Tasmania in Quest for Wind: Energy
  • HSBC Cuts Gold Allocation on 3-Year and Six-Month View
  • China Zinc Output May Peak in 2015 as Project Pipeline Thins
  • Rubber May Extend Rally After Golden Cross: Technical Analysis
  • Zinc Mine Supply Growth May Slow During Next Eight Years

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CURRENCIES

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EUROPEAN MARKETS


FRANCE – let’s not talk about Spain’s unemployment going up again (even though they make up the numbers, they still see unemployment rising to 26% in Q4 vs 25% prior); lets talk about the country everyone wants to be: France – French PMI for JAN gets spanked to 42.9 vs 44.6 in DEC (Services PMI down too, 43.6 vs 45.2 last mth), French #GrowthSlowing.

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ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – KOSPI down another -0.8% after snapping its TRADE line of support 2-days ago, taking the correction to -3.3% from the JAN high; something to watch alongside the Hang Seng (2 days of lower-highs) and Shanghai Comp that was also -0.8% overnight and also broke its TRADE line of 2308 support into the close.

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MIDDLE EAST


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The Hedgeye Macro Team