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TODAY’S S&P 500 SET-UP – January 9, 2013

As we look at today's setup for the S&P 500, the range is 46 points or 1.11% downside to 1441 and 2.05% upside to 1487.

SECTOR AND GLOBAL PERFORMANCE

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 1

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 2

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EQUITY SENTIMENT:


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 10


CREDIT/ECONOMIC MARKET LOOK:

  • YIELD CURVE: 1.61 from 1.62
  • VIX closed at 13.62 1 day percent change of -1.23%

MACRO DATA POINTS (Bloomberg Estimates):

  • 7am: MBA mortgage applications (prior -10.4%)
  • 10:30am: DoE Inventory reports
  • 11am: Fed to buy $1.25b-$1.75b in 2036-2042 sector
  • 1pm: U.S. to sell $21b 10-yr notes reopening

GOVERNMENT:

    • House, Senate not in session
    • FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski speaks at CES, 4:30pm.
    • Israel’s Ehud Barak visits Leon Panetta, 6:45pm
    • SEC holds pre-hearing conference in matter of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu CPAs, BDO China Dahua CPA Co., 9:30am

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Clearwire gets unsolicited Dish counterbid to Sprint offer
  • SAC Capital said to raise hedge fund bonuses amid probe
  • AMR sees reasonable possibility of recovery for shrholders
  • Goldman said to be part of Fed-led foreclosure settlement
  • ITC judge may say next steps on Apple/Samsung ruling
  • Blackstone said to seek doubling of credit line to $1.2b
  • China-Japan dispute takes rising toll on top Asian economies
  • First Quantum takes C$5.1b bid for Inmet Mining hostile
  • Apple CEO returns to China amid falling phone market share
  • BOJ to work more closely with Abe at regular policy meetings
  • UBS client pleads guilty in offshore tax case
  • U.S. shopping center demand slows amid sluggish job growth
  • Shell’s mishaps in Artic drilling prompt U.S. govt. review

EARNINGS:

    • Helen of Troy (HELE) 7:30am, $1.14
    • Constellation Brands (STZ) 7:30am, $0.55
    • Shaw Communications (SJR/B CN) 8am, C$0.46
    • Pricesmart (PSMT) 4pm, $0.62
    • Ruby Tuesday (RT) 4:02pm, $(0.06)
    • Texas Industries (TXI) 6pm, $(0.31)

COMMODITY/GROWTH EXPECTATION (HEADLINES FROM BLOOMBERG)

COMMODITIES – with the exception of Oil (which is a big exception as it will, at some pt, slow growth), Bernanke’s Commodity Bubble continues to deflate; Corn making a lower-low this morning and Gold is failing at its TAIL risk line of $1671 again; we covered gold so that we can re-short it on this bounce; manage the risk of the range proactively.

  • Brent Crude Halts Two-Day Gain as U.S. Oil Inventories Increase
  • Alcoa Sees Aluminum Use Climbing on China Recovery: Commodities
  • Gold Trades Little Changed at $1,659.31 an Ounce in London
  • Wheat Rises on Outlook for Lower 2013 Stockpiles; Corn Steady
  • Copper Rises on Speculation About Revivals in Biggest Consumers
  • Robusta Coffee Rebounds as Roasters, Investors Buy; Cocoa Falls
  • Cold Weather to Aid India Wheat Crop to Record for Seventh Year
  • Iron Ore Seen Set for Bear Market After Restocking Rally Fades
  • Rubber Advances for Second Day as China May Step Up Purchases
  • Lead Premium Paid in Europe Said to Almost Double for This Year
  • EU Carbon May Decline to Record as Glut Expands: Energy Markets
  • Chinese Bauxite Production Holds Key for Aluminum Markets
  • China Said to Plan Sale of Government Cotton Stockpiles
  • U.S. Drought Persisting Seen as Threat to Corn, Soybean Supplies

CURRENCIES


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 6

EUROPEAN MARKETS


EUROPE – the short squeeze to higher-highs in European stocks continues; Italy’s MIB Index leading the charge this wk, up another +1.1% this morning crossing the 17,000 line and making a higher-high; remember that, unlike the USA, European corporates aren’t comping all-time peak margins; most of their stock markets are cheaper on a cyclically adjusted basis too.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 7

 

ASIAN MARKETS


ASIA – the Shanghai Composite corrected a whole 3 basis pts overnight and both the Nikkei and Hang Seng reversed back into the green; KOSPI down -0.3% was controlled and most importantly held both TRADE (1980) and TREND lines of support; Thailand said no more rate cuts for now as the economic demand side of the picture improves.

THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 8

 

MIDDLE EAST


THE HEDGEYE DAILY OUTLOOK - 9

The Hedgeye Macro Team