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As you know, Macau GGR increased 8% YoY despite a tough hold comparison.  VIP hold appeared slightly below normal in November 2012 but well below November 2011.  Once again, Mass revenue led the way, up 33% while VIP revenue declined slightly (less than 1%) for the 2nd consecutive month and the last 4 out of 5 months.  VIP chips (volume) was up a solid 7%, however.  Overall, November was a decent month and we expect December to be even better.  However, we remain concerned about the upcoming smoking restrictions, potential junket crackdown, the weak performance of the SSE, and stabilizing Mass hold %. 

We will post a more detailed analysis later today but LVS was the clear winner this month, on many fronts.  Here are some company-specific analysis:

Sands China

  • Market share was a strong 20.8%, up from 15.6% last year and in-line with October’s strong showing.  We continue to believe that Sands will post fairly consistent share improvement over the next 12 months on a hold adjusted basis.
  • Mass share was equally impressive at 27.7%, 2nd highest in last 3 years.
  • Not surprisingly, Sands YoY GGR growth of 44% led the market but more impressively, its Mass business grew a whopping 75%.
  • VIP hold was slightly below normal and well below last year making the VIP growth even more impressive

Wynn

  • Wynn struggled again this past month with GGR down 2% and Mass only up 6%.
  • Market share was in-line with its 12 month average but only because Wynn held well above normal albeit slightly below November 2011
  • Mass share fell to 7.5%, an all-time low

MPEL

  • Overall a solid month for MPEL:  GGR share was slightly above the 12-month average but Mass share grew to 12.9%, an all-time high
  • GGR grew 15% YoY and Mass increased 40% YoY
  • VIP hold was well below normal and last November’s hold so the month could’ve been even better for MPEL

MGM

  • Market share rebounded from October’s abysmal 8.9% but was still lower than the 12 month average
  • Mass share was only 6.9%, near an all-time low
  • MGM GGR fell for the 2nd straight month – not good
  • MGM did get hit in the hold side, however – well below normal and last year.  VIP volume growth did lag the market though.

MACAU: A SOLID NOVEMBER - 2222