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Can Romney Swing A Win?

Takeaway: Early voting shows consistent gains for Romney versus 2008 (which isn’t surprising), but the gains are big enough to matter in Iowa.

Early voting based on the most recent data shows Romney with a slight edge thus far. Let's examine some of the swing states in this election:

-Colorado -- Votes: 1.7 million ... Democrats: 35 percent ... Republicans: 37 percent ->  In 2008, was 38% for Dems and 36% for Republicans so 4% net gain for Republicans In 2008, Obama won by +9.0


--Florida -- Votes: 4.5 million ... Democrats: 43 percent ... Republicans: 39 percent -> In 2008, was 46% Dems and 37% Republicans so 5% net gain for Dems In 2008, Obama won by +2.8


--Iowa -- Votes: 640,000 ... Democrats: 42 percent ... Republicans: 32 percent – In 2008 was 47% Dems and 29% Republicans, so 8% net gain for Republicans In 2008, Obama won by +8.0


--Nevada -- Votes: 702,000 ... Democrats: 44 percent ... Republicans: 37 percent – Same as 2008

--North Carolina -- Votes: 2.8 million ... Democrats: 48 percent ... Republicans: 31 percent -> In 2008, Dems were 51.4% and Repubs were 30.2% -> 4% net gain for Repubs In 2008, Obama won by +0.3


--Ohio -- Votes: 1.7 million: Democrats: 29 percent ... Republicans: 23 percent _> A little unclear, but it appears that Romney has improved here as well.  While the date is much less clear, one county that people are pointing to is Cuyahoga County which went 68.5% for Obama in, early voting was down about 15%.  Further, Cuyahoga County has 208,207 fewer total registered voters in 2012 compared to 2008 Further, in 2008 33% of absentee ballots went to Democrats and 19% to Republicans, so a 8% net gain is fair here for Republicans. Obama won by +4.6% in 2008